Wednesday, 19 June 2019

Questions (80)

Michael McGrath


80. Deputy Michael McGrath asked the Minister for Finance when the summer economic statement will be published; the level of detail the statement will have in terms of fiscal and macroeconomic projections; the impact of different Brexit scenarios; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [25494/19]

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Written answers (Question to Finance)

I can confirm for the Deputy that the Summer Economic Statement (SES) 2019 will shortly be published and presented before the Oireachtas. The SES will set out the broad parameters for macroeconomic growth and the fiscal outlook as well as the constraints facing the economy over the medium term.

The Government is currently targeting a headline surplus of 0.4 per cent of GDP next year. Since the publication of the Stability Programme Update (SPU) 2019 in April, risks to the economy have intensified, most obviously the increasing possibility of a disorderly Brexit in October. As such, the SES is being prepared on a two-track basis; one scenario assuming an orderly exit, and one assuming a disorderly exit.

The impact of the two scenarios on the public finances will be set out in the SES. 

However, I would also point out that, leaving aside Brexit, the economy is on the verge of overheating.  Budgetary policy must, therefore, be framed in the context of potential overheating on the one hand, and the possibility of a disorderly exit of the UK from the EU on the other hand.