Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 2 July 2019
204. Deputy Michael McGrath asked the Minister for Finance the estimated nominal general Government balance in each of the years 2020 to 2024 in a disorderly Brexit scenario; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [27945/19]
View answer209. Deputy Michael McGrath asked the Minister for Finance the projected Exchequer borrowing requirements in each year between 2020 and 2024 under the orderly and the disorderly Brexit scenarios, respectively; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [27958/19]
View answerI propose to take Questions Nos. 204 and 209 together.
Due to the unprecedented nature of Brexit there is considerable uncertainty regarding what will be its precise impact on the economy as a whole, and on particular sectors. As a result it is challenging to accurately estimate the effect of a disorderly Brexit on the Exchequer borrowing requirement and, consequently, on the general government balance.
Accordingly, the effect of a disorderly Brexit on the public finances is presented in a potential range, reflecting this unusual level of uncertainty.
As outlined in Table 5 of the Summer Economic Statement 2019, a disorderly Brexit may lead to an indicative nominal deterioration in the general government balance in the order of approximately €6 billion annually, on average, in each year 2020-2024.
More precise nominal projections are, given the uncertainty in the forecasts, not available and would be of limited illustrative use.
