Budget 2020 was presented on the basis of a disorderly exit by the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Given uncertainty around the manner and timing of the UK’s departure this was the correct approach to take.
Should the UK leave the EU on an orderly basis, through implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement recently agreed between the UK and EU, Ireland’s fiscal position will, inter alia, improve via increased revenues and lower expenditure than forecast at Budget 2020.
The Summer Economic Statement (SES), published in June 2019, was based on an orderly scenario and is instructive in this regard.