Tuesday, 3 December 2019

Questions (149, 150, 152)

Pearse Doherty

Question:

149. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform the expenditure required to respond to demographic pressures across each Department in each of the years 2020 to 2025; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [49818/19]

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Pearse Doherty

Question:

150. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform the projected pre-committed expenditure in each of the years 2020 to 2025 in the event of an orderly Brexit by pre-committed spending categories of demographics, the Public Service Stability Agreement, carryover costs for budget 2019 and 2020 and pre-committed capital expenditure, in tabular form. [50099/19]

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Pearse Doherty

Question:

152. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform the pre-committed capital expenditure in each of the years 2020 to 2025. [50101/19]

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Written answers (Question to Public)

I propose to take Questions Nos. 149, 150 and 152 together.

In setting out current expenditure ceilings, certain items of expenditure are classified as pre-committed and are included in the pre-Budget position. This includes allocations to cover demographic costs, public service pay agreements and full year costs of budget measures from previous years.

Expenditure Report 2020 sets out estimates of certain demographic pressures in the areas of Health, Social Protection and Education as pre-committed elements of the current expenditure baseline for the period to 2022. These are primary areas of current expenditure which are particularly impacted by demographic changes. An amount of under €0.5 billion has been allocated each year to 2022 across these areas. This is presented at Departmental level in the following table.

Demographic Allocations 2021 – 2022 (€m)

2021

2022

Health

148

148

Education

47

47

Social Protection

260

260

Total

455

455

These allocations are informed by the paper ‘Budgetary Impacts of Changing Demographics 2017 – 2027’, published by the Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service (IGEES),which can be found on the IGEES website in the following link: https://igees.gov.ie/budgetary-impact-of-changing-demographics-2017-to-2027/. An update of this paper was published alongside Budget 2020, which can be found in the following link: http://www.budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2020/Documents/Budget/Budgetary%20Impact%20of%20Changing%20Demographics%20from%202020%20-%202030.pdf.

In future years, demographic allocations may be re-stated to reflect this more up-to-date analysis.

There are carryover costs in 2021 relating to certain current expenditure measures introduced in Budget 2020. This amounts to an estimated €0.2 billion in 2021 and is set out in table 7 on page 46 of Expenditure Report 2020 as well as below.

Carryover Impact of Certain Budget 2020 Measures in 2021 (€m)

-

Additional Impact in 2021

Education

50

Justice

50

Health

80

Housing

50

Total

230

This allocation relates to measures to be implemented during 2020 and as such the cost in 2021 will depend on factors such as timing and take-up of initiatives. As is usual, these costs will be re-examined during the course of the year and may be re-stated in the 2020 Mid-Year Expenditure Report. In addition, there is a carryover impact of €0.3 billion in 2021 relating to elements of the Public Service Stability Agreement that come into effect in 2020.

In relation to capital expenditure, Table 9 of the Economic and Fiscal Outlook published as part of the Budget 2020 includes an allocation for voted capital expenditure out to 2024. The increases in voted capital expenditure included in that table for 2021 and 2022 are included with the current expenditure pre-commitments, outlined above, in the following table.

Pre-Committed Expenditure 2021 – 2022 (€bn)

-

2021

2022

Demographics

0.5

0.5

PSSA

0.3

Budget 2020 Carryover

0.2

Capital Expenditure

1.0

0.3

Total

2.0

0.7

Table 8 in the Budget 2020 Expenditure Report also set out gross voted capital expenditure allocations over the period to 2022 at a Departmental level. However, it should be noted in relation to the Departmental capital allocations, that given the nature of capital spending, it may be necessary to make some moderate adjustments to the published allocations over the period 2021 and 2022, with these final allocations then published in the Revised Estimates Volume for the relevant period. At this point in time, it is expected that any amendments would be modest and would not pose any material effect on Departmental allocations. The allocation of funds for voted capital expenditure in 2023 and 2024 has not been assigned at a Departmental level at this juncture.