Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 26 November 2020
96. Deputy Paul Murphy asked the Minister for Finance if his Department has modelled the economic impacts of pursuing a zero-Covid policy compared to the current policy of intermittent lockdowns; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [39168/20]
View answerSince the emergence of COVID-19, the Government has been guided by the need to strike a balance between jobs, income and enterprise on one hand and keeping our people healthy and safe on the other.
The Government has been clear that a “zero covid” policy is not available to Ireland due to the border with Northern Ireland and the Common Travel Area. Our proximity to Europe and the nature of the supply chains we are part of, both as an exporter and importer of vital goods, are also relevant considerations.
I want to stress, however, that my Department has modelled many different scenarios and the analysis has been made public.
For instance, my Department's autumn forecasts, set out in the Economic and Fiscal Outlook which was published alongside Budget 2021, are based on the assumption that widespread vaccination will not be available before the end of 2021, meaning sporadic peaks-and-troughs in infection rates are likely and this will weigh on economic activity.
The Economic and Fiscal Outlook included a range of medium-term recovery scenarios for the economy and implicit virus paths, based on joint research carried out by my Department and the ESRI. It also included a downside scenario which drew on this research. This analysis is based on a severe epidemiological scenario that triggers the re-introduction of stringent restrictions over a prolonged period.
While the impact of the move to Level 5 restrictions in October is likely to be significant, I am optimistic that the economic fall-out will not be as severe as in the downside scenario presented with the Budget, as construction, education, childcare and most manufacturing activity have remained open under the current restrictions. While some of the real-time indicators that my Department monitors - such as payment card transactions and mobility data - have fallen since we introduced these additional restrictions, these falls have not been as large as those seen in the spring. We have published these real-time indicators on my Department’s website.
