Dáil Éireann Debate, Wednesday - 13 October 2021
133. Deputy Steven Matthews asked the Minister for Education if the level of retirement from the primary school system is matched by the number of newly qualified teachers; the research her Department has commissioned to ensure the system is future-proofed in this regard; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [50059/21]
View answerIn November 2019, my Department published a technical report “Developing a Teacher Demand and Supply Model for Ireland 2020-2036”. The report was updated in May 2021 with projections of teacher demand and supply to 2038. These projections take account of projected pupil enrolments, estimated teacher retirements and resignations, and the estimated number of new registrants with the Teaching Council.
The report projects that the demand for primary teachers will decrease most years up to 2026, after which it will increase to 2038. This trend will be driven by decreasing retirements and enrolments out to 2027 and 2034, respectively. High levels of supply compared with modest demand will lead to a projected over-supply of primary teachers out to 2035, after which the demand is projected to overtake the supply.
It is important to note that the report’s projections are based on high level demographics and demonstrate trends in demand and supply. The projections do not take account of possible new policy measures that might affect teacher demand or supply. Ultimately, the intention is to establish a robust data based model for the effective projection of future teacher demand and supply across the school system.
The Technical Report is available at www.gov.ie/en/publication/055810-education-statistics/#latest-statistical-reports.
