As the Deputy is aware, the most recent projection of additional carbon tax revenues provided by my Department for the period 2021 to 2030 amounted to €9.2 billion. The annual breakdown of these receipts was provided in reply to PQ No. 78 of 10 November 2021. As stated in the same PQ reply, projections are point-in-time exercises, and are revised periodically to take account of factors such as changes in the macroeconomic environment, policy decisions by Government and other factors.
As was further stated in response to PQ No.172 of 18 November, the projections for carbon tax receipts are based on a declining carbon tax base reflecting changing behaviour in response to the tax, amongst other factors. The projections were not based upon a 51% reduction in emissions relative to 2018 levels. At the time of formulation of Budget 2022, the Climate Action Plan 2021 had not been finalised, with the contents still under active discussion. In addition, the Climate Change Advisory Council had yet to publish its proposed carbon budget programme, which includes larger annual reductions in emissions in the years 2026-2030.
As indicated in response to PQ No. 172 of 18 November, the estimates were based upon official projections from the Environmental Protection Agency published, in June 2021 at the following link: EPA-Irelands-Greenhouse-Gas-Emissions-Projections-report-2020-2040v2.pdf. At the time of the formulation of Budget 2022, these were the latest projections available from the EPA and, as such, represented an official independent assessment of our emissions trajectory to 2030.
Notwithstanding this approach, the Government is committed to achieving our 2030 emissions reductions targets and, as indicated above, Government policy has continued to evolve in helping us reach our emissions targets, most notably with the publication of the recent 2021 Climate Action Plan.
