Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 12 July 2022
259. Deputy Darren O'Rourke asked the Minister for Transport if he will provide a detailed breakdown of the estimated capital delivery cost range for the MetroLink of between €7.16 billion and €12.25 billion; the estimated annual current cost; if he will provide details on the proposed public-private partnership aspect of the project; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [37237/22]
View answerMetroLink is at a relatively early stage of development and final construction costs will not be known until after the planning and procurement processes. On 4 July, Government approved the project in principle at Decision Gate 1 of the Public Spending Code. This decision was informed by a range of potential costs. These costs were developed in line with international best practice and combine reference class forecasting and expert assessment. The estimated construction costs at P30, P50 and P80 are set out in the table below. The 'P' value indicates the probability that the project will be delivered at or below a certain cost, and the P30 to P80 range is considered to represent the credible cost range at this stage of development.
|
- |
P30 (with low inflation) |
P50 (with medium inflation) |
P80 (with high inflation) |
|
Base Cost, €m |
5,800 |
5,800 |
5,800 |
|
Risk Allowance, €m |
410 |
1,740 |
3,030 |
|
Inflation Allowance, €m |
960 |
1,960 |
3,420 |
|
Total, €m* |
7,160 |
9,500 |
12,250 |
*Rounding may affect totals
Approximately three-quarters of total construction expenditure is expected to be funded by the Exchequer, with the remainder funded through public-private partnership (PPP) which will be repaid after services begin operation. The proposed PPP element of MetroLink construction covers project integration and contract interface risk. The PPP partner will design and construct the track, supply the rolling stock, fit out the depot, and commission the control signalling, along with other supporting tasks. This approach allows the project to draw on the expertise and efficiency of private sector firms that have experience in creating metro systems.
The estimated annual current cost of MetroLink after services commence will be subject to detailed revenue and financial analysis ahead of Decision Gate 2 of the Public Spending Code. It is expected that the PPP partner will operate the MetroLink service for a number of years following opening and that the unitary charge paid to the PPP partner by the Exchequer will cover operational costs, in addition to repaying finance provided during the construction phase.
