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Publication of the Parliamentary Budget Office’s Pre-Budget 2019 Commentary

1 Oct 2018, 15:08

Today the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) released its Pre-Budget 2019 Commentary. The document explores key themes in advance of this year’s Budget.

The PBO point out that while current best estimates of the cyclical position of the Irish economy do not highlight an immediate risk of overheating, this could potentially occur in the near future. It is important to avoid the pro-cyclical policies of the past and adopt a prudent fiscal stance for Budget 2019, targeting a balanced budget.

It is desirable that Ireland’s tax base is broad and focused on less volatile sources of tax revenue. The sustainability of recent increases in corporation tax and the concentration of tax revenue from a small number of firms, and to some extent higher earning individuals, are risks that should be recognised and mitigated. Expenditure increases, particularly of a permanent nature, should not be funded through potentially unsustainable and volatile tax revenues.

Commenting, Annette Connolly, Director of the PBO, said: “Building on the analysis produced by the PBO for Oireachtas members over the past 12 months, this document highlights key messages for consideration ahead of Budget 2019. Transparency and accessibility of budgetary information should be improved to remove barriers to allow greater parliamentary engagement and scrutiny. The PBO also recognises that at present, data limitations risk restricting evidence-based policy-making and place a constraint on the capacity to undertake effective performance budgeting. In addition to exploring these key issues, the PBO’s Pre-Budget Commentary for 2019 reiterates the macroeconomic and fiscal context ahead of this year’s Budget.”

The publication can be found here

For the attention of editors

Established in August 2017, the Parliamentary Budget Office is a key source of financial and budgetary intelligence for Members of the Oireachtas and in particular for the Dáil Committee on Budgetary Oversight as it conducts ex-ante scrutiny on budgetary matters. It is an independent specialist unit within the Houses of Oireachtas Service.
The need for the office was identified by the OECD in its review of budget oversight by the Irish Parliament. The Oireachtas Sub-Committee on Dáil Reform, in its final report in May 2016, recommended that the office be established.
It has recently published briefing papers for Members on the HSE National Service Plan and its relationship with the Health Vote, Tax Expenditures, an approach to better incorporate climate-related considerations into the Budget process, and an analysis of the Spending Review 2018. All these notes and papers are available on the PBO’s section of the Houses of the Oireachtas website.

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