Dáil Éireann díospóireacht -
Wednesday, 12 Mar 1952

Vol. 129 No. 12

Committee on Finance. - Motion by Minister for Finance.

Minister for Finance (Mr. MacEntee)

I move:—

That a sum not exceeding £33,140,340 be granted on account for or towards defraying the Charges which will come in course of payment during the year ending on 31st day of March, 1953, for certain public services, namely:—

		£			£
1	Teaghlachas an Uachtaráin	2,100	1	President's Establishment	2,100
2	Tithe an Oireachtais	67,000	2	Houses of the Oireachtas	67,000
3	Roínn an Taoisigh	8,750	3	Department of the Taoiseach	8,750
4	An Phríomh-Oifig Staidrimh	43,700	4	Central Statistics Office	43,700
5	An tArd-Reachtaire Cuntas agus Ciste	11,200	5	Comptroller and Auditor General	11,200
6	Oifig an Aire Airgeadais	55,200	6	Office of the Minister for Finance	55,200
7	Oifig na gCoimisinéirí Ioncaim	559,900	7	Office of the Revenue Commissioners	559,900
8	Oifig na nOibreacha Poiblí	95,000	8	Office of Public Works	95,000
9	Oibreacha agus Foirgintí Poiblí	990,000	9	Public Works and Buildings	990,000
10	Scéimeanna Fostaíochta agus Eigeandála	336,000	10	Employment and Emergency Schemes	336,000
11	Bainistí Stoc Rialtais	32,600	11	Management of Government Stocks	32,600
12	An tSaotharlann Stáit	5,100	12	State Laboratory	5,100
13	Coimisiún na Stát-Sheirbhíse	17,200	13	Civil Service Commission	17,200
14	An Chomhairle Ealaíon	3,500	14	An Chomairle Ealaíon	3,500
15	Coimisiúin agus Fíosrúcháin Speisialta	3,400	15	Commissions and Special Inquiries	3,400
16	Aoisliúntais agus Liúntais Scoir	360,000	16	Superannuation and Retired Allowances	360,000
17	Rátaí ar Mhaoin Rialtais	85,000	17	Rates on Government Property	85,000
18	An tSeirbhís Sicréideach	2,000	18	Secret Service	2,000
19	Costais faoin Acht Toghchán agus faoi Acht na nGiúirithe	—	19	Expenses under Electoral Act and the Juries Act	—
20	Deontais Fhorlíontacha Talmhaíochta	1,100,000	20	Supplementary Agricultural Grants	1,100,000
21	Dlí-Mhuirir	35,700	21	Law Charges	35,700
22	Ollscoileanna agus Coláistí	270,000	22	Universities and Colleges	270,000
23	Costais Ilghnéitheacha	7,500	23	Miscellaneous Expenses	7,500
24	Páipéarachas agus Clódóireacht	203,000	24	Stationery and Printing	203,000
25	Luacháil agus Suirbhéireacht Teorann	20,000	25	Valuation and Boundary Survey	20,000
26	Suirbhéireacht an Ordanáis	17,760	26	Ordnance Survey	17,760
27	Talmhaíocht	2,654,000	27	Agriculture	2,654,000
28	Iascach	145,000	28	Fisheries	145,000
29	Oifig an Aire Dlí agus Cirt	26,800	29	Office of the Minister for Justice	26,800
30	An Garda Síochána	1,280,000	30	Garda Síochána	1,280,000
31	Príosúin	65,670	31	Prisons	65,670
32	An Chúirt Dúiche	26,980	32	District Court	26,980
33	An Chúirt Chuarda	38,610	33	Circuit Court	38,610
34	An Chúirt Uachtarach agus an Ard-Chúirt Bhreithiúnais	29,260	34	Supreme Court and High Court of Justice	29,260
35	Clárlann na Talún agus Clárlann na nDintiúirí	29,460	35	Land Registry and Registry of Deeds	29,460
36	Oifig na nAnnálacha Poiblí	3,030	36	Public Record Office	3,030
37	Tabhartais agus Tiomanta Déirciúla	1,440	37	Charitable Donations and Bequests	1,440
38	Rialtas Aitiúil	1,458,000	38	Local Government	1,458,000
39	Oifig an Aire Oideachais	108,000	39	Office of the Minister for Education	108,000
40	Bun-Oideachas	2,650,000	40	Primary Education	2,650,000
41	Meán-Oideachas	275,000	41	Secondary Education	275,000
42	Ceard-Oideachas	310,000	42	Technical Instruction	310,000
43	Eolaíocht agus Ealaí	50,000	43	Science and Art	50,000
44	Scoileanna Ceartúcháin agus Scoileanna Saothair	120,000	44	Reformatory and Industrial Schools	120,000
45	Institiúid Ard-Léinn Bhaile Atha Cliath	20,000	45	Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies	20,000
46	An Dánlann Náisiúnta	3,620	46	National Gallery	3,620
47	Tailte	751,760	47	Lands	751,760
48	Foraoiseacht	296,000	48	Forestry	296,000
49	Seirbhísí na Gaeltachta	235,000	49	Gaeltacht Services	235,000
50	Tionscal agus Tráchtáil	4,566,300	50	Industry and Commerce	4,566,300
51	Seirbhísí Iompair agus Muirí	689,610	51	Transport and Marine Ser-
				vices	689,610
52	Seirbhísí Eitlíochta agus Metéaraíochta	180,190	52	Aviation and Meteorological Services	180,190
53	An Oifig Chlaraitheachta Maoine Tionscail agus Tráchtála	8,290	53	Industrial and Commercial Property Registration Office	8,290
54	Poist agus Telegrafa	2,568,000	54	Posts and Telegraphs	2,568,000
55	Forleathadh Neamhshreangach	75,400	55	Wireless Broadcasting	75,400
56	Cosaint	2,167,860	56	Defence	2,167,860
57	Arm-Phinsin	331,690	57	Army Pensions	331,690
58	Gnóthaí Eachtracha	128,050	58	External Affairs	128,050
59	Comhar Eadarnáisiúnta	12,460	59	International Co-operation	12,460
60	Oifig an Aire Leasa Shóisialaigh	182,160	60	Office of the Minister for Social Welfare	182,160
61	Pinsin Sean-Aoise	2,763,330	61	Old Age Pensions	2,763,330
62	Liúntais Leanaí	768,660	62	Children's Allowances	768,660
63	Arachas Dífhostaíochta agus		63	Unemployment Insurance
	Cúnamh Dífhostaíochta	455,000		and Unemployment Assistance	455,000
64	Pinsin do Bhaintreacha agus do Dhílleachtaí	342,330	64	Widows' and Orphans' Pensions	342,330
65	Arachas Sláinte Náisiúnta	195,330	65	National Health Insurance	195,330
66	Iltseirbhísí Leasa Shóisialalgh	88,000	66	Miscellaneous Social Welfare Services	88,000
67	Sláinte	2,575,000	67	Health	2,575,000
68	Oifig an Ard-Chláraitheora	6,940	68	General Register Office	6,940
69	Gealtlann Dúndroma	13,000	69	Dundrum Asylum	13,000
70	Cúnamh Teichniúil	66,000	70	Technical Assistance	66,000
71	Oifig na Gaeltachta agus na gCeantar gCúng	2,500	71	Oifig na Gaeltacha agus na gCeantar gCúng	2,500
72	Cuartaíocht	45,000	72	Tourism	45,000
	AN TIOMLAN	£33,140,340		TOTAL	£33,140,340

As the House is aware the Dáil is asked for a Vote on Account each year in order that Government Services should not be brought to a standstill for want of funds. Moneys granted by the Dáil are granted only for the service of a particular financial year and, therefore, are not available for use the following year. Accordingly, until such time as the Estimates for 1952-53 have been examined and passed by the House, there must be some arrangement for the carrying on of the necessary business of the Government. It is the practice, therefore, to obtain by way of Vote on Account enough money to enable the public services to be carried on from the 1st April until about 31st July by which date it is anticipated that the Appropriation Act will have been passed.

The amount we provide in the Vote on Account is roughly one third of the total of the Estimates. This is subject, however, to variation in individual cases according as to whether payments are expected to be heavier or lighter in the part of the year covered by the Vote on Account. This year the amount asked for is, as I have said, £33,140,340. The total amount, however, of the Estimates for the Supply Services for the coming year is £94,871,623. The amount originally provided for the Supply Services, according to the volume of Estimates for last year, 1951-52, was £83,036,048. This year's figure accordingly shows an increase of £11,835,575. As I proceed, however, I hope that I shall satisfy the Dáil that the actual cost of the services for the coming year as compared with this current one will be much less than that figure and that the true explanation for the apparent increase is to be found in the fact that the provision for the public services, contained in the volume of Estimates submitted to the Dáil and the people by our predecessors in Government, was greatly inadequate and, I am bound to say, in my view, deliberately misleading.

To avoid confusion in discussing this question, I shall continue to compare the original Estimate for 1951-1952 with those in the new volume but, as I go along, I shall qualify this in individual cases by referring to the Supplementary Estimates taken during this year. I shall begin by referring to the major increases and explain how they have come about. The largest increase is one of £3,857,000 on the Vote for Industry and Commerce. The principal elements in this increase are food subsidies which are responsible for £2,737,000. The figure for Bord na Móna is £377,000 and that for Foras Tionscal £250,000. The £450,000 included for rural electrification in this year's volume of Estimates is due to a reversion to the procedure abandoned by our predecessors of discharging the subsidy for rural electrification according as it arose.

The previous Government thought fit to meet this subsidy by way of an annuity charge over 50 years. Since it is believed that at least 50 per cent. of the expenditure on rural electrification will never be remunerative, there is no justification for spreading that fraction of the cost of this work over half a century. Moreover, even if the expenditure were fully remunerative, sound engineering economics, based on the practical experience of the probable lifetime of the works and structures involved, would require the cost to be amortised within a very much shorter period.

The comparisons I have made are with the original Estimate for Industry and Commerce for 1951-52. This was found inadequate, however, in relation to requirements that it was necessary to introduce first a Supplementary Estimate for £3,079,995 to meet undischarged fuel losses. As the Dáil is aware, by far the greater portion of these losses arose in the years preceding this year. These losses ought to have been discharged from year to year as they accrued. One consequence of the failure to deal with the problem in this straightforward way was that when the Supplementary Estimate was introduced by the present Government it was found necessary to include in it —I hope Deputy Hickey is listening——

Mr. Hickey

You know I am.

Mr. MacEntee

——no less than £371,957 to cover bank interest. Later we had a Supplementary Estimate for £650,000 in respect of flour subsidy pay ments. Two hundred thousand pounds of this £650,000 provided by the Supplementary Estimate was required to cover the deficiency on the original provision which was occasioned by the increase in the price payable for homegrown wheat. The balance, £450,000, was necessitated by the failure of our predecessors to provide fully for the cost of imported wheat and freight thereon. When these Supplementary Estimates are taken into account, the net increase this year for the Department of Industry and Commerce, over 1951-52, is reduced to £59,000.

Transport and Marine Services are up by £1,698,000, the main increases being in respect of Córas Iompair Éireann, for which a sum of £1,300,000 is included; the Great Northern Railway, for which £200,000 is included, and grants for harbours amounting to £218,000. Here again, further regard must be had to the Supplementary Estimates which we found it necessary to introduce. Nothing was provided last year in the original Estimate to cover the losses which were inevitably bound to arise in the working of Córas Iompair Éireann and it was necessary to take a Supplementary Estimate for £2,230,000 for this purpose. That figure of £2,230,000 included no less than £433,000 in respect of advances made to the undertaking to enable it to meet interest payments on transport stock in 1951-52. As there was every reason to fear and believe that the Exchequer would be called upon to provide this £433,000 during the current year, it is difficult to appreciate why this sum was not provided for in the original Estimates submitted to this House. A second supplementary for £120,000 was needed to meet the guarantee in respect of losses arising on the working of the Great Northern Railway system. Allowing, again, for these supplementaries, the Vote for Transport and Marine Services, as a whole, shows a decrease of £653,000 for this year.

The Defence Estimate is up by £1,426,000. It reflects partly the in-taries crease in pay granted to members of the Defence Forces and partly the expansion of the services which has been necessitated by the international situation. Supplementary provision to the extent of £339,000 in respect of higher pay for the Defence Forces had to be made in 1951-2. This arose directly out of the need to apply the principles of the Civil Service arbitration award to the forces. A further £20,000 was also provided to finance the humanitarian work of the Irish Red Cross Society.

The Estimate for Health is another Estimate which shows an increase. In this case, the increase is of £1,193,000 over last year. Again, in this case, it was necessary during the year to take a Supplementary Estimate for no less a sum than £835,000—so that the net increase for this service in this year as compared with last year is £338,000. In view of the very large amount of this Supplementary Estimate—amounting, let me repeat, to £835,000—which the present Government had to ask for in order to meet the charges on this Vote, it is difficult to appreciate why my predecessor in his Budget Statement did not mention that this very large additional sum would be demanded in the course of the year. The fact that he did not do so, and that the ministerial Orders which eventuated for this additional expenditure were made almost immediately after his Budget Statement—within, in fact, five days thereafter—is highly suggestive. It would appear as if the Minister were more concerned with political expediency than with financial rectitude.

The Estimate for Old Age Pensions is increased by £1,050,000. The increase is consequent upon the Social Welfare Act which was passed by the Oireachtas last July. Deputies, in that connection, will remember that a Supplementary Estimate for £337,000 has already been taken this year.

The Education Estimates are up some £1,312,000 more than in 1951-2, the increase, in this case, being due mainly to the higher pay secured by primary, secondary and vocational schoolteachers last year. These increases again arose from the application of the Civil Service arbitration terms to the teaching profession and is another case where a supplementary provision had to be made during the year 1951-2, the amount of the provision being £1,070,000.

The Estimate for Agriculture also is up—up by £936,000, the main increases being in respect of the butter subsidy for which £953,000 will be required and the ground limestone subsidy for which the Dáil is being asked to provide £300,000.

Mr. Dillon

Perhaps the Minister will explain these two subsidies?

Mr. MacEntee

When the Deputy has made his speech I shall be glad to reply to him. This is not a police court and I will not be subjected to unmannerly cross-examination by the Deputy.

Mr. Dillon

It is significant that the Minister will not explain them. He was very eloquent about the others.

Mr. MacEntee

They will all arise for explanation in due course when the Estimate covering them comes up for consideration by the House.

Mr. Dillon

They arise now.

Mr. MacEntee

The increase in Civil Service pay, which resulted from the Civil Service Arbitration Board recommendation, is estimated to cover roughly £1,585,000 a year. This, of course, is spread over the whole range of Votes.

I would ask the Deputies to bear in mind that the figures I have quoted hitherto——

Mr. Dillon

That is right. Pick up the paper and read it.

Mr. MacEntee

Why not? I want to refresh my memory. After all, I do not go back home and rehearse my speeches before the looking-glass.

Mr. Donnellan

It would help you if you did.

Mr. Morrissey

Rumour must not be true.

General MacEoin

He uses a bog hole, not a looking-glass.

Mr. MacEntee

I was going on to say that Deputies should bear in mind that the figures I have quoted hitherto refer to amounts which have been transferred from the special Supplementary Estimates to the general Estimates and that the figures in relation to Civil Service remuneration have been taken into account before arriving at the net figure for the increase in respect of any particular service.

I come now to the decreases in the Estimates. The largest decrease is in the Vote for the Department of Local Government, being an apparent decrease of £2,293,000 on the original provision for 1951-52. I have seen some curious references in the newspapers recently to the sub-head under which the greater part of this decrease arises, namely, sub-head I (7). The references suggest that considerable confusion exists in the minds of the public men who made them. I shall endeavour to clear the situation up for them. The sub-head in question, as its wording clearly indicates to any person who took the trouble to read the Estimate, relates mainly to balances due to local authorities in respect of grants allocated to them out of the Transition Development Fund prior to the 1st November, 1950. I would ask the House, and Deputy MacEoin in particular, to mark the date—the 1st November, 1950, the date before which allocations were made. That date is actually set out in the Estimate, showing that the provision did not relate to future houses, to freshly projected houses, but to houses which were built or in course of building.

The new sub-head, in fact, was necessitated by the decision of my predecessor to wind up the Transition Development Fund as at the 31st March last. In order to do this it was necessary to make provision for certain commitments previously entered into. With this purpose a special sub-head, the sub-head to which I have referred, sub-head I (7), was opened in the Local Government Estimate for 1951-52—purely as a transitory provision—and it is under this sub-head that our predecessors' hypothecations of the Transition Development Fund will be honoured.

In this as in other matters they pledged, but we pay; they promised and we pay. Even though it inflated by £2,000,000 the figure which appeared in the Local Government Estimate every local authority knew that the arrangement represented no additional provision whatever; but it was a remarkably tricky piece of financial window dressing all the same. The fall in the 1952-53 provision for grants is an automatic consequence of this change in the method of subsidisation and implies no reduction, let me emphasise, in State aid for local authority housing. The other large decrease on the Local Government Estimate is in respect of works under the Local Authorities (Works) Act, 1949. The decrease under this head, however, will be compensated for by increased expenditure on road works of permanent value, carried out for the public benefit solely, and financed from the Road Fund.

The Vote for forestry shows a reduction of £201,000 on the original Estimate for 1951-52. The 1951-52 Estimate, however, made provision for reserve stocks to the extent of £193,000 and no provision has been made for that particular item in 1952-53. I wish to emphasise this, for I notice that Deputy MacBride with his customary disingenuousness has been muddying the waters by suggesting in the Press that less is being provided for the actual afforestation programme in the coming year. There is no justification for misleading the public in this fashion. The truth of the matter is that the reserve stocks which were considered necessary have been built up —our predecessors should never have allowed them to run down—so that there is no need to continue to accumulate them.

Mr. MacBride

Can the Minister assure the House that the same number of men will be employed in forestry work for the coming year as in the past?

Mr. MacEntee

I am saying that exactly the same amount of money will be spent on afforestation as in 1951-52 and that there is no justification for the letters which the Deputy has been writing to the Press and for the statements which he has been making elsewhere. As I pointed out, we have built up the required reserve stock. Having done that what else does Deputy MacBride want us to do? To continue to buy and to spend the taxpayers' money on barbed-wire and stakes and call it afforestation.

Mr. MacBride

Does the Minister give us an assurance that the same number of men will be employed?

Mr. MacEntee

The Deputy may be under the impression that forestry is an ironmongery and hardware store, but, fortunately for the taxpayer, the Government does not.

Mr. MacBride

I am concerned only with the number of people employed.

Mr. MacEntee

Gaeltacht Services show a reduction of £123,000 for the same reason——

Mr. Dillon

Stockpiling.

Mr. MacEntee

——there being a decrease roughly of £18,000 in respect of reserve stocks. In the Vote for Public Works, where there is a decrease of £174,000, again the reduction arises from the fact that the reserve has been built up and it is not necessary to make any further provision under that head.

Mr. Dillon

Hear, hear!

Mr. MacEntee

So much for the main increases and decreases as between the volume of Estimates for the coming year and the Supply Estimates which were originally presented to the House for 1951-52. It is, of course, with the Estimates for the coming year that we are now concerned. They represent by far the greater part of the bill which we shall have to meet next year. In round figures the Supply Services covered by these Estimates will cost £95,000,000. The figure is meant to cover existing services only. It does not take account of additions during the year for new services, nor even with these will it constitute the whole bill. We have also to bring into account the cost of Central Fund Services. This year the Central Fund Services will require something of the order of £13,000,000 which is £2,600,000 more than last year. It arises mainly because of increased debt charges including the first half year's interest on Marshall Aid Loan now completely spent which will require £600,000 worth of dollars because that interest must be paid according to the terms of the bond in the local currency of the United States. But even the Supply Services and the Central Fund Services do not represent the whole tale of Government expenditure. We have still to take into consideration what are known as "below the line" issues, expenditure which is represented by advances to the Electricity Supply Board, to Bord na Móna, to the Local Loans Fund or incurred for such purposes as our share of the purchase price of the Great Northern Railway Company undertaking. In this year, issues of this kind will amount to about £22,000,000, and in the coming year, the year 1952-53, are likely to be of the order of £26,000,000. Making every allowance for sayings on these Votes, and for so much of the expected expenditure as may not, in fact, be realised, a conservative estimate of the total expenditure under all these heads would be about £135,000,000.

On the assumption that the revenue from existing taxes and other sources remains unabated, the gap between our prospective income and this forecast of expenditure looks like being of the order of £50,000,000. No matter how it be regarded, no matter on what ground it may be justified and no matter for-what purpose it is provided, this, I think it will be admitted, is an enormous sum.

Let me emphasise, however, that it arises almost entirely out of the cost of maintaining our present services and continuing our present programme. With the exception of the additional amount which was provided last year for old age pensioners and the additional provision for defence, social welfare, health and tourism which are included in the Estimates, or will arise in due course, it does not include any new service, any new channel of expenditure which was not inherited from our predecessors.

The basic difference between this year's figures and last year's lies in the fact that the figures which I now present to the Dáil give a compreheasive picture of the true and real position.

There has been no cutting down, no doctoring of the figures, merely to preserve appearances. The true bill is being presented to the people. The problem which they have to face, and which this House in particular has to face, is whether, and, if so, how can this gap be bridged, and at the same time, stability restored in our economic and financial affairs. This problem is urgent and pressing; it grows graver and more acute day by day. The nation cannot afford to procrastinate or delay in dealing with it. Accordingly, the Government proposes that the Budget should be taken at the earliest possible date after the close of the current financial year, that is to say, on Wednesday, the 2nd April.

Mr. Morrissey

Hear, hear!

Mr. MacEntee

Closely interlinked with this budgetary problem there is another problem of equal gravity to which I now propose to refer. It arises from the deficit which we ran, not only last year but in several preceding years and are continuing to run this year in our balance of payments.

Neither the House nor the country has been left in ignorance of the anxiety, the heavy anxiety, with which the Government have viewed this problem. Within a very short time after we took office I reviewed at length in this House the financial situation of the State. In that review, I drew attention to the balance of payments deficit and emphasised the menace which it constituted to our credit and solvency. I again warned the House of the gravity of the position last July and once again last November. The Taoiseach himself, the Tánaiste, the Minister for Health, the Minister for External Affairs, the Minister for Lands, the Minister for Posts and Telegraphs, the Minister for Justice, and each and every one of the remainder of my colleagues has referred to this problem time and time again and emphasised its gravity, its seriousness and its significance. Further in order to bring it more emphatically home to the public mind and to set the position categorically before the people the Government published a special White Paper dealing with the balance of payments. Unfortunately the Government's warnings in this regard were scoffed at and derided by those public men who appear to have induced themselves to believe that disputation and controversy on this important matter would be accepted by our foreign creditors in settlement of our debts with them.

Our people were told, and it has been recently repeated, that we were creating a false scare, that the balance of payments deficit was in no sense as grave or as large as we pretended it to be. The Leader of the Opposition in fact went so far as to pledge his reputation as statistician that the turn of the year would show that the deficit was not any larger than £50,000,000. The fact is that, according to the provisional estimate which has been prepared for me by the Central Statistics Office, from data now available to it, the deficit for the calendar year 1951 is over £66,000,000.

General Mulcahy

Would the Minister say how it is made up?

Mr. MacEntee

The Deputy can say what he has to say when I sit down.

General Mulcahy

Tell us how it is made up.

Mr. Morrissey

Calendar year?

Mr. Dillon

Where is the figure to be got?

Mr. MacEntee

I am now giving it to the House.

Mr. Dillon

You had one last November which was quite wrong.

An Leas-Cheann Comhairle

The Minister is in possession and should be allowed to continue without interruption. Deputies will have an opportunity of making their own speeches.

Mr. MacEntee

I have said that, according to the information and the estimate furnished to me by the Central Statistics Office on the data which is now available to them, the deficit for the year 1951 is over £66,000,000. The estimate given in the White Paper published last October for the deficit was £70,000,000, and Deputy Costello pledged his reputation as I have said as a statistician——

Mr. Costello

I have never claimed to be a statistician.

Mr. MacEntee

——that it would not exceed £50,000,000. It is quite clear from this that the Government statisticians are much better estimators and more accurate judges of the position than Deputy Costello has shown himself to be. I find, and I am sure the country will find, no gratification in that fact——

Mr. Morrissey

Who are the statisticians who made the figure £70,000,000?

General Mulcahy

Help us in our ignorance——

Mr. MacEntee

Nothing could help the Deputy's ignorance. It is invincible.

Mr. MacBride

I do not think that is a proper remark for the Minister to make.

Mr. MacEntee

If Deputies will not interrupt then I will not make any remark which Deputy MacBride could regard as improper.

Mr. MacBride

The Leader of the largest Party in the House is entitled to ask a question and entitled to courtesy.

Mr. Dillon

On a point of order. The Central Statistics Office is in the Department of the Taoiseach. I suggest that if that office——

Mr. Aiken

Is this a point of order?

Mr. Dillon

It is a point of order. If that office is issuing calculations related to the national income and other statistics of that kind every Deputy in the House is as much entitled——

Mr. Allen

That is not a point of order.

Mr. Dillon

——to that information as is any individual member of the Government, the Taoiseach always excepted.

An Leas-Cheann Comhairle

That is not a point of order.

Mr. Dillon

Surely, Sir. My point of order is——

Mr. Allen

Chair!

An Leas-Cheann Comhairle

The Minister is in possession.

Mr. Dillon

May I make this point of order? If the Minister purports to quote an official document, that document should be made available to the House. That is my point of order and I respectfully submit that it is a point of order.

Mr. Morrissey

That is so. There is no question about that.

The Taoiseach

It has been ruled out of order.

General Mulcahy

Perhaps the Taoiseach could help us.

Mr. Dillon

I did not ask the Minister for Finance. I asked the Leas-Cheann Comhairle if the Minister purports to quote an official document, surely that document should be made available?

Mr. Aiken

That is not a point of order.

Mr. Morrissey

It is a point of order

Mr. Aiken

It was ruled not to be a point of order.

An Leas-Cheann Comhairle

I understand the Minister is giving figures that have been specially prepared for him.

Mr. Morrissey

The point is that if a Minister purports to quote from an official document that document must be made available to the House.

The Taoiseach

Nonsense. Is it suggested that because a figure is given by the Minister, a figure which he has got by asking another Department for it, the whole document in which such a figure appears must be quoted? That is perfectly ridiculous.

Mr. Morrissey

No matter how ridiculous the Taoiseach may think it is, I am putting it to the Chair that it is the well-established practice in this House that if a Minister purports to quote from an official document then that document must be made available.

Mr. MacEntee

Wait a moment. I trust the Deputy will bottle up his indignation for a moment. Will the Deputy listen? It is after all rubbing salt into the wound, is it not?

Mr. Morrissey

Is this the speech Mr. Butler promised yesterday?

Mr. Dillon

On a point of order. I want to submit most respectfully——

Mr. McGrath

This is what happens when pig's head is a 1/- a lb.

Mr. Dillon

——while no one will claim that the Minister for Finance must produce to the House a memorandum prepared by the officers of his own Department, if the Minister for Finance, or any Minister, applies to the Taoiseach's Department and the Taoiseach gets an official paper prepared and that paper is brought in here and someone says: "I now quote from a document supplied by the Taoiseach's Department"——

Mr. Allen

He did not say that.

Mr. Dillon

——any Deputy has the right to say: "Table that document if you are quoting the Taoiseach's Department." The Central Statistics Office is the Taoiseach's Department and all I am saying is that if the Minister for Finance comes to the House and says: "I have a statement officially supplied to me by the Taoiseach's Department" I, as a Deputy, have the right to say: "If the Taoiseach's Department has issued an official paper put it on the Table of the House if you want to quote it."

The Taoiseach

That is nonsense.

An Leas-Cheann Comhairle

The official document. He is quoting ad hoc figures supplied to him by the various Departments. There are no official documents concerned.

Mr. Dillon

The Minister said that he was giving these figures on the authority of the Central Statistics Office. That is part of the Taoiseach's Department.

The Taoiseach

Certainly.

Mr. Dillon

If he quotes from a document my respectful submission is that every Deputy has the right to see the document issued by the Taoiseach's Department if the Minister is going to depend upon it and quote direct from it here.

Mr. MacEntee

This is another attempt, of course, to confuse the issue. I did not quote from any document. I gave to the House in the form in which it was given to me an estimate prepared for me in consultation with the Central Statistics Office. The Deputy is now getting it, every word of it.

Mr. Dillon

Intending no discourtesy, I would prefer to read it.

Mr. MacEntee

If that father and mother of red herrings can sit quiet for a moment——

Mr. Dillon

I would prefer to read it and I claim I have the right to do so.

Mr. MacEntee

The Deputy will have hours in which to speak. No doubt he will speak for some hours, since his whole technique is to confuse the issue and the minds of the people and prevent these facts getting home to them. Since he will have hours in which to speak, he had better sit quiet for the rest of this Session.

Mr. Dillon

I would prefer to read the document.

Mr. MacEntee

I am quoting my authority, the Central Statistics Office, which is available for the purpose of supplying members of the Government with data relating to their particular Departments necessary to enable them to discharge the business of their Departments and their business to this House. The Central Statistics Office has calculated—provisionally, of course, because the official figures will not emerge in the last decimal place until some time later in the year—that the deficit on the data now available will be in the region of £66,000,000. I may say that the data is very full data but I am not saying how much more the deficit will be. I am taking the figure of £66,000,000 and I am leaving out of consideration the fact that it may be somewhat larger. We will take the nice round figure of £66,000,000 and contrast it with Deputy Costello's pledged word that it would not exceed £50,000,000 in respect of the last calendar year.

Despite all the ballyhoo that we read in the newspapers and in certain editorials the estimate which was published in White Paper was very much closer to the mark than the ridiculous understatement for which Deputy Costello made himself responsible. The estimate which was published in October had naturally been prepared some weeks before that. It fixed the deficit at about £70,000,000. Deputy Costello, with the whole basis of the calculation before him in the White Paper, said that it would not be more than £50,000,000. The actual fact is that that deficit has turned out to be £66,000,000. All I say in regard to that is, and I think it has a moral for our people and a moral for those who sit behind Deputy Costello, that the Government's statisticians are much better estimators and much more accurate judges of our financial and economic situation than Deputy Costello has shown himself to be.

Perhaps I may take a minute or two to remind the Dáil how this balance of payments problem arises and how it goes to the very heart of our economic health and well-being.

Due undoubtedly to the fact that the balance of payments, whether for or against a country, expresses itself in millions of pounds, people in general are prone to look at it as a mere abstraction which does not impinge in any concrete or vital way upon their own welfare. There could scarcely be a graver misconception. A country's position in regard to its balance of payments reacts decisively and intensively upon a country's credit, the purchasing power of its currency, its ability to pay, its ability to buy.

If the balance of payments position of a country is grossly and continuously adverse over a prolonged period, if the deficit is at a level beyond anything which the country's external reserves can continue to support, its credit will be destroyed, its currency will be depreciated, its economy will be disrupted and those of its industries which depend on foreign supplies will be destroyed. As everybody will understand, foreign suppliers will not accept its money in exchange for their goods, raw materials will be denied to it and its employers and employees alike will be impoverished.

In every year since and including 1947 this country has had deficits of varying magnitude, the cumulative total of which has now reached £155,000,000.

It has been urged that this accumulation represents a repatriation of external assets.

This was largely true in the year 1947; it is much less true in regard to the deficits which were incurred over the intervening years.

No one can contend that the heavy sums spent over those years on imported wheat, coarse grains, or foreign butter represented a repatriation of external assets.

On the contrary these represented a consumption, a wasteful and final consumption, of external assets, a consumption which could easily have been avoided if a far-sighted economic policy had been pursued.

I have mentioned that from 1947 to 1951 inclusive we incurred deficits on our balance of payments amounting to £155,000,000 in all.

It is a startling fact that £96,000,000 of this huge total was realised in the two years 1950 and 1951.

Perhaps those whose policy was responsible for this will be good enough to point out for us where in the Twenty-Six Counties are the tangible, income-producing assets which they claim are represented by that £96,000,000.

We shall, for the present at any rate, leave that sorrowful past behind and turn now to consider the future, or at least that part of it which is represented by the balance of the current calendar year.

According to the best estimate that we have been able to frame on the basis of present trends and future expectations, we shall, if these trends remain unchanged, close the present year with a balance of payments deficit of the order of £50,000,000.

Comprised in that figure there is an estimated deficit of £22,000,000 with the dollar area and an estimated deficit of £28,000,000 with other non-sterling area countries.

General Mulcahy

Can the Minister say that that is the calendar year ending 31st December, 1952?

Mr. MacEntee

Precisely.

Mr. Dillon

£50,000,000 was the figure.

Mr. MacEntee

And, as I was saying, because, of course, it is necessary that the House should keep continuously in mind the whole picture, £22,000,000 of that deficit on present trends is expected to arise in regard to transactions with the dollar area and the balance of £28,000,000 is expected to arise in relation to transactions with other non-sterling area countries. I wish to say that this is a development which cannot be permitted.

Unless steps be taken now to prevent it, we shall eventually have widespread unemployment and want in consequence of it.

The position, therefore, is highly critical and must be corrected by direct action if necessary.

It is quite true that we are not in a unique position in having a problem of this kind.

In the non-sterling world, several countries have major balance of payments difficulties and others are only emerging from such difficulties as a result of strenuous effort and sacrifices.

In our case, however, the problem arises in a twofold way.

First of all we are immediately and directly concerned to maintain our own credit with our own suppliers outside the sterling area.

This involves our ability to meet our obligations to them in a currency which they will accept.

On the other hand the bulk of our trade is with Great Britain to whom we sell for sterling.

But though we buy a great deal from the non-sterling area, we sell very little to it; so that the deficit in our balance of payments arises almost wholly in respect of transactions with countries outside the sterling area to whom we can offer nothing except sterling in settlement.

Because of this fact we are of necessity vitally concerned in the fortunes of sterling as an international currency; for the purchasing power of our own currency in non-sterling markets is dependent on the exchange value of our holdings of sterling.

As the general pattern of our trade now exists we can only pay our way in the world in so far as we retain adequate sterling resources and in so far as the international position of sterling as a means of exchange is maintained.

It is certain that unless there is a radical alteration in the pattern of our trade, we shall not have the means to pay for non-sterling imports if we continue to import them at the present level.

The proper and most effective way of remedying this position would be to expand our exports to these non-sterling areas and every effort is being made to do this, but, naturally, it will take time to produce results.

The balance of payments problem, on the other hand, is urgent and must be dealt with immediately.

The Government, therefore, have no option but to strive to secure a reduction in this country's imports from non-sterling sources to the least possible value, without disturbing our economy so seriously as to jeopardise our prospect of achieving an over-all balance within a reasonable time.

Accordingly, we are taking steps to adjust our balance of payments with the dollar area so that the net deficit during the second half of 1951-1952 will not exceed 16,000,000 dollars.

General Mulcahy

That is 16,000,000 dollars for the half year?

Mr. MacEntee

Yes.

Mr. MacBride

60 or 16?

Mr. MacEntee

16.

Mr. MacBride

16?

Mr. MacEntee

Yes. I thought my enunciation was generally very clear.

Mr. MacBride

Not always.

Mr. Dillon

Sometimes he reads the wrong figure.

Mr. MacEntee

He is not speaking as told by Uncle Joe.

So far as the other non-sterling countries from which we import are concerned, the whole situation is under intensive examination as regards all manner of payments for goods and services and the Government will, in due course, indicate the measures which are found necessary to produce the required reduction in the deficit of our balance of payments with these countries.

General Mulcahy

Could the Minister say——

Mr. MacEntee

The Deputy will hear everything and, if he does not, he can get the script of my speech and read it.

General Mulcahy

The Minister tells us that he is going to reduce the adverse balance with the United States to 16,000,000 in the second half of 1951-52.

Mr. MacBride

Dollars.

General Mulcahy

What is the position for the whole year?

Mr. MacEntee

I will tell the Deputy that in a moment.

Mr. Dillon

Is it dollars or pounds you said?

Mr. MacEntee

I said dollars.

Mr. Aiken

He did not say the yolk of eggs.

Mr. Dillon

He has come down flatfooted for dollars.

Mr. MacEntee

I was saying, Sir, that we are intensively examining the problem of our imports from non-sterling and non-dollar sources and that we propose to announce, in due course, the steps which we are going to take in order to secure a reduction in the deficit which arises in respect of these items. We shall, in fact, aim at so reducing it that in the latter part of this year it will not be accruing at a rate in excess of £18,000,000 per annum. One source of foreign expenditure with which we can deal directly and immediately is the holiday allowance for foreign travel. During the last few years—I notice this is going to hurt Deputy MacBride——

Mr. MacBride

It will not hurt me.

Mr. MacEntee

I hope I shall be permitted to make this speech, which has at least some importance for the people of the country even if the people opposite have no regard for it. I was saying that one source of foreign expenditure which we can immediately and directly control is the holiday allowance for foreign travel. During the last few years, considerable numbers of our people have been spending their holidays abroad and this outgoing adds to the strain of our balance of payments. As transactions with the European countries which are the destination of our travellers presently involve settlement of deficits in gold or dollars through the E.P.U. clearing, it is of great importance that we should make a saving wherever possible.

The Government have decided, therefore, to reduce with early effect the basic allowance for holiday travel abroad during the ensuing 12 months to £25.

Mr. Dillon

Hear hear!

Mr. MacEntee

We shall, of course, comply with our obligations as a member of O.E.E.C. and when this has been done details of the new arrangements will be announced.

Mr. Dillon

A revolutionary and unexpected proposal!

Deputy MacBride interrupted.

Mr. MacEntee

The Deputy may jeer but he is not one of the persons who will suffer if catastrophe overtakes us. But we are endeavouring to ward off these things from our people. I hope, therefore, that I shall be permitted to continue without these interruptions from the bear garden. The decisions which I have announced will impose a great measure of restraint upon us all. They will result in a certain amount of inconvenience, but they are unavoidable and inevitable if the credit and stability of our currency is to be preserved and if our economy is not to be so seriously dislocated, our credit so injured that great hardship would be inflicted upon great numbers of our people. I am sure that it will be recongnised and accepted that only the dire need of the hour, the stark realities of our economic situation compel us to resort to them.

Mr. Dillon

To the £25.

Mr. MacEntee

The reductions in non-sterling imports at which we aim will it is hoped enable us to deal with the urgent and immediately pressing aspect of our balance of payments problem with the non-sterling world and give us, so to speak, breathing space for the remainder of this year. But that in itself is not enough to aim at. We must have a long-term objective and do our utmost to achieve it. Our purpose must be to make our economy more nearly self-supporting in relation to the non-sterling world. If we wish to continue to import at existing levels we must produce more and export more of what we produce. Production and not restriction is the solution for our problem.

Mr. Dillon

Hear, hear!

Mr. MacEntee

Furthermore, we must recognise that the balance of payments problem is likely to be with us for a long time indeed. The position in which our principal customer finds herself is not likely to be rectified for many years.

Mr. MacBride

If ever.

Mr. MacEntee

Precisely, if ever. I hope the significance of that chance remark of the Deputy is not lost.

Mr. MacBride

It was not a chance remark. I have often made it before.

Mr. MacEntee

It makes the need for dealing with this position more urgent and more inescapable. As I was saying the position in which Great Britain to whom we tied ourselves up by a Trade Agreement in 1948 finds herself is not likely to be completely rectified for many years.

Mr. Dillon

It ends next month.

General Mulcahy

And the Central Bank report of 1945.

An Leas-Cheann Comhairle

These interruptions must cease. The Minister must be allowed to make his statement.

Mr. MacEntee

Until it is and the free convertibility of sterling is restored we shall have the ever present danger of payments difficulties with the non-sterling world which will place our economy and the standard of living of our people in continuous jeopardy So long as the present position obtains we shall live under the risk that one day our non-sterling suppliers will not give their goods for the payments we tender. The only way we can be sure of avoiding that risk is to increase our exports to them. We cannot do that, however, unless we produce the goods that they want at terms which will be attractive to them.

Our manufacturers cannot permit themselves to be contented with the home market. They must make every effort to find export outlets for their products. Indeed, under present circumstances neither they nor their workers can have any assurance that the home market will of itself be in a position to maintain them. We would appear in short to be entering upon a new chapter in our industrial history, a chapter during which our industries must export or decay. Furthermore, the export drive cannot be confined to manufactured goods or industrial products. Developments since the war have shown that agriculture may play even a predominant part in solving this problem.

Mr. Dillon

Oh.

Mr. MacEntee

Yes, by selling to those whom the Deputy once called "fly-by-nighters." These are the lessons which we must learn from the present crisis. For many years we have been living on the savings of our fathers or on moneys borrowed from abroad. That chapter must now be regarded as closed. Henceforward we must rely more and more on ourselves; more and more on our own labours to supply the food we eat, the things we wear and the luxuries we desire. We do not necessarily have to produce all these things for ourselves but if we want to have them we must produce and export sufficient goods to pay for them.

Mr. J.A. Costello

In the course of his observations the Minister for Finance claimed that the speech he was making had some little importance for the House and the country. Rather more weight would have been attached to his observations and to the many series of platitudinous observations to which he gave utterance in the course of his remarks had he been less irritable, considerably less aggressive and slightly more informative. The only impression that is left in my mind at the close of the Minister's speech is the fact that he used expressions such as "stark reality,""frightful catastrophe,""problems" and "the necessity for doing something now and for all time." The only concrete suggestion we have been able to get to deal with all those dark problems and stark situations is the reduction of our travel allowance to £25.

Minister for Lands (Mr. Derrig)

Nonsense.

Mr. J.A. Costello

We have been told that an intensive examination is going on to see what is to happen with reference to imports from non-sterling countries and that steps are to be taken with reference to the dollar countries—but not the slightest hint as to what these steps are likely to be or what measures are likely to be taken to deal with this problem was given to us by the Minister.

We learned from the radio last evening that the Minister for Finance, Deputy MacEntee, sent a message to the Chancellor of the Exchequer of the British Parliament; that the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced in the British Parliament that he had received from our Minister for Finance something in the nature of an assurance that he was going to weigh in with them on some unspecified measures to deal with the situation which confronted Great Britain, and that the Minister was going to make a statement in the Dáil to-day. I had occasion to enter a protest in this House on another occasion against that type of procedure. We learned from the British radio that our Minister for Finance was going to London to take counsel and consideration with his opposite number there, the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The Irish Parliament and the Irish people got that information from the British radio. We now learn that our Minister for Finance has sent a letter to the British Chancellor of the Exchequer but we were not told to-day what was in that letter. We are entitled to know the contents of that letter which the Minister for Finance sent to the British Chancellor of the Exchequer—a letter dealing with matters which must be of vital import to the people of this country and to the plans which he has for the imposition of an austerity programme upon them which we do not believe to be justified or necessary.

A particular writer in one of to-day's newspapers interpreted the sending of the letter by our Minister for Finance to the British Chancellor of the Exchequer—though nobody but the British Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Minister himself knows the contents or the purport of that letter— as follows: "The Minister, in framing his Budget, might be guided by the British Budget especially as he appears to have given a written undertaking concerning aspects of Irish financial and economic policy to the British Chancellor of the Exchequer." Has the Minister given such an undertaking in writing? If he has not, I think we are entitled to know the contents of that letter and to what extent this State is bound by the undertakings given in that letter. We are entitled to ascertain what took place at the London Conference. The Taoiseach told us that it was nothing but an exchange of views. We accepted that——

Mr. Dillon

I did not.

Mr. J.A. Costello

——and we took no further steps in the belief that when the financial motions and financial business would fall to be dealt with by this House in the course of the next few months, from to-day onwards, we would get some indication as to what views were exchanged at that conference. The Minister has sat down to-day without giving us the slightest indication of what those views were— of whether there was any agreement in the letter, which the British Chancellor of the Exchequer announced in the British Parliament that he had received from him, as to the steps that ought to be taken in reference to the shoring-up of sterling. We are entitled to ask for at least some indication of the nature of these views.

The departure of the Minister for London was heralded by publicity in his own Press and it was given a considerable degree of publicity in newspapers that are not so tied to his Party as the Irish Press or the Sunday Press. We were told that it was our pound that was in jeopardy and we were told by the Sunday Press that the Minister went over to London with powerful cards in his hands to play. Then we found that he was accompained by the Minister for Industry and Commerce. The Minister for Industry and Commerce took the high road and the Minister for Finance took the low road. The Minister for Finance went by boat and the Minister for Industry and Commerce went by plane. They arrived at the same time but they did not go together. That is symbolic of the division that exists on financial and Government policy, if we are to take account of the utterances of Ministers in recent times. We have the restrictionist policy of the Minister for Finance and the expansionist policy of the Minister for Industry and Commerce. We know, from his own utterances in this House in the first year of the inter-Party Government, what the present Minister for Industry and Commerce—Deputy Lemass as he then was—thought of the Department of Finance, namely, that every worthwhile project ever sent to the Department of Finance was killed and buried there and he warned the Fine Gael Deputies of that time not to be caught in the grips of the Department of Finance.

Everybody knows that where capital expenditure is provided for, in the Budget or elsewhere—whether it is above or below the line and whether the jargon of the old out-of-date economists is continued and the revisions which we started discarded— that whatever the Minister for Finance may say of difficulties to the verge of desperation, the Minister for Industry and Commerce will go on expending moneys and not bothering about the method of getting the money. He will get the money and spend it and he will not bother how that money is to be got. That is one of the great dangers that is inherent in the change of policy that is indicated by the very simple change that has been made on the cover of the Book of Estimates this year. The inter-Party Government, in 1951, for the first time divided the financial affairs of this country into two parts, the first part dealing with capital account and the other part dealing with current account. The policy enshrined in that change was given effect to by means of the double Budget. That is the fundamental change that has been made in the Book of Estimates we are dealing with here to-day. Not one single word was stated by the Minister for Finance in the course of his observations either to explain or to justify that change. We know now—if I may borrow or adapt a phrase from a rather more defunct poetic confrére of the Minister himself, the late William Wordsworth—that the Minister was suckled in a creed outworn. He was suckled in a creed outworn since the day when Gladstone died. It is obvious from the policy adumbrated by the Minister to-day—so far as any policy is demonstrated in the Book of Estimates—that Deputy McGilligan's plans, when he was Minister for Finance, for the development of this country have been set aside in favour of the Victorian concepts of economy and that the officials of the Department of Finance have triumphed over progress.

We are faced to-day, as a result of the policy carried out by the present Government, with unemployment on an ever-increasing scale. We have uncertainty in business and unrest in agriculture. The Minister for Finance, in his platitudes to-day, spoke about production, more production, and the necessity for exports. It is perfectly true that manufacturers will produce more, if they can sell it, but the difficulty at the moment is that what they can produce they cannot sell. The farmers will produce more for home consumption and for export if a proper agricultural policy is adopted and the necessary impetus given them to produce what is so urgently required. Can we solve that problem by talk about the balance of payments about which the Minister appears to be obsessed? Uncertainty and confusion have been brought into the affairs of this country since the present Government came into office—uncertainty and confusion deliberately intended, I believe, to be brought about by the change in policy and the change in the form of the Estimates which were typified by the segregation of capital from current items in the dual Budget. That confusion exists in this Book of Estimates.

The Minister for Finance stated that there is likely to be not less than a £50,000,000 deficit on our accounts. How could anybody check that in the Book of Estimates? I might remark that it is not a mere coincidence that a short time ago that very same figure of £50,000,000 appeared in one of the political publications of the Irish Press. How are we to check that? There is nothing but confusion in this Book of Estimates this year. The Minister, both by the tone of his speech and the content of his remarks, indicated that he is far more concerned in trying to cast aspersions on his predecessor's financial policies and in trying to suggest that the last Government had deliberately misled the Irish people in connection with their financial policy, than he is with providing them with a decent financial policy of his own. He is far more concerned with making points against Deputy McGilligan and the last Government than he is with dealing with the very grave problems with which we have to deal. He and his colleagues have shown in the last nine or ten months that they are prepared to besmirch the credit of this country in order to make political capital against their political opponents. We have the spectacle of Sir Basil Brooke rejoicing at the Minister's utterances. We have to realise that, in the certain knowledge that this country is relatively speaking one of the most prosperous countries of the world, if our opportunities are availed of. I do not care whether the officials of the Department of Finance or of the Central Bank propound theories that were in existence 50 years ago. We are proud of the innovations we made in financial matters and of the policy of the capital Budget of which it was the instrument. It was possible for Mr. Foster, head of E.C.A., to say at the end of three years of inter-Party Government that this was one of the most prosperous countries in the world. Is it still possible to say that to-day after our experience of the last ten months?

We had speeches from the Minister for Finance alleging that the country was faced with difficulties bordering upon desperation. He spoke to-day about the balance of payments problem and what had happened during the debate on the White Paper published by his Department. At that time it was a "crisis" that was facing the country. The Government, led by the Tánaiste and the Minister for Finance, veered rapidly away from the "crisis" and accepted my description of conditions as being those, not of a crisis, but of a problem. They have never been able to get over that and nobody in this country with any independence of thought will now accept anything from the Minister for Finance as a true view of the financial position because he has cried "wolf" too often.

There is confusion and uncertainty in the country. It is at least some satisfaction to us to know that there will be some end to the uncertainty by the early Budget which the Minister for Finance to-day announced his intention of introducing. There has been uncertainty in the country which has brought about widespread unemployment and depression. That uncertainty has been the result of Government policy in the last eight or nine months. It has done far more damage and caused greater suffering than any gap in the balance of payment we have had to suffer or are likely to suffer in the near future. The greatest problem that we may have to face in connection with the balance of payments is that, according to the Minister, there will be a gap of £66,000,000. I mentioned £50,000,000 here before. The Minister said I staked my reputation on that. But whatever the figure is——

Mr. MacEntee

Is your reputation sufficient?

Mr. J.A. Costello

Whatever the gap may be it was sustained in an exceptional period and under more difficult circumstances that are unlikely to occur again. I assert that while we have always known and asserted that there is a problem in the balance of payments, it is a long-term one and it is not a problem such as was adumbrated by the Minister in his speech to-day.

May I in passing refer to the Minister's remark about me? I do not care what the Minister says one way or another about me. His remarks are all on a par with the kind of cheap gibes with which apparently the Minister intersperses his observations, even on serious subjects. He said that I pledged myself as a statistician to a figure of £50,000,000 as representing the gap in the balance payments. May I direct his attention to the fact that I said that even a statistician—I do not claim to be one; I never did—would be unable, even after a lapse of six or seven months beyond the close of the financial year, to give anything but an approximation of what the gap in the balance of payments might be? May I refer the House to a statement which I made on the 7th November last as reported in Volume 127, No. 2, column 359? I then stated:

"Even at the end of six months after the close of the year when the experienced and expert statisticians of the Central Statistics Office have all the available information before them, even then they, experts as they are, are not able to give anything other than what is an approximate estimate. Yet it is only a guess for eight months, not for 12 months. It takes no account of the effects on the balance of payments."

I move to report progress.

Progress reported; Committee to sit again.