asked the Minister for Finance if he will state the basis of the statistical calculations in the White Paper on Accession to the European Communities that (a) the output of cattle is expected to rise by 33 per cent to 1.95 million in 1978; (b) the national cow-herd is expected to rise to 2.25 million in the same period; (c) milk output is expected to rise to 1,000 million gallons in the same period; (d) the value of gross agricultural output will increase by 75 per cent on the basis of 1970 EEC price levels; (e) manufacturing output is expected to rise by 8½ per cent per annum during this period; (f) the total national output is expected to increase by nearly 5 per cent; (g) the decline in agricultural employment is expected to be reduced to 7,000 per annum and the net increase in total employment will be 50,000 between 1970 and 1978 including an increase in manufacturing employment from 4,500 per annum to 6,000 per annum; and (h) the cost of living will increase by 3½ per cent to 5 per cent during the 1973-77 period inclusive.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - EEC White Paper.
In the case of agriculture, the estimates of agricultural output were based on an analysis of the effects of the common agricultural policy on agriculture in the present member States and an examination of the implications of the EEC's market organisations and higher price levels, in 1970-71 terms, for Irish producer prices in the context of an enlarged European Community. Output projections up to 1978 were made on the basis of these estimated price changes having regard to observed responses to price changes in the past, the effects of increased farming costs and the future market outlook. The likely trends of each of the main agricultural commodities were considered and these were aggregated to show the overall effects on output and income in terms of 1970-71 EEC price levels. In estimating future employment trends account was taken of the projected increase in agricultural output and income and the current demographic structure of the agricultural population.
The estimated increase in manufacturing output and in manufacturing employment in the period to 1978 is based on a broad assessment of the manufacturing sector which is outlined in paragraph 5.18 of the White Paper. The assessment was made following discussions between the Government Departments and State agencies involved. It covered the prospects for existing employment as well as new job creation in the context of EEC membership.
The figures of 4,500 and 6,000 referred to at (g) of the question are the respective average annual equivalents of the actual net increase in manufacturing employment during the 1960s and the expected increase of 50,000 during the period 1970 to 1978. These figures are approximate. I might mention that the average annual rate of net job creation during the latter half of the 1960s has been running above the average for the decade: the average for the period of 1966 to 1970 was about 5,500 per annum.
The assessments for agriculture and manufacturing industry were the main elements in the basis for the projections that total national output would rise by nearly 5 per cent per annum and that the net increase in total employment would be 50,000 between 1970 and 1978. Tests were made for consistency and feasibility of the estimates of output, employment, productivity and demand resulting from these assessments, in the light of relevant economic relationships, constraints on growth and the likely effects of the movement towards free trade. The results of these tests confirmed the view taken in the estimates.
The estimated increase in consumer prices consequent on membership of the EEC represents the effects of closing, over a period of five years, the present gap between Irish and EEC producer prices for agricultural products, coming under the Community's system of price supports. It is estimated that these increases will raise food prices by between 2 per cent and 3 per cent a year over the transitional period and, allowing for the weighting of food prices in the consumer price index, this should cause an increase of between 0.7 per cent and 1 per cent a year in the overall price level of consumer goods and services. These estimates are, of course, subject to the qualifications mentioned in the White Paper.
Would the Minister not accept that one of the major criticisms of the White Paper has been on the almost total absence of the detailed calculations of the various forecasts, assumptions and estimates contained in it? It would be most valuable and enlightening, and it might raise the level of the debate on the referendum, if we had available to us the various analyses of the aggregates of commodities referred to by the Minister, and if we knew the extent to which the demographic structure was taken into account. Some appendix to the White Paper should now be published elaborating further on what the Minister has said this afternoon, so that people can talk about the Government's estimates with a reasonable degree of authority. Surely the Minister would accept that there is a very urgent need for that because, quite frankly, some of the documents produced by, for example, the Irish Council of the European Movement contained more information than the relevant sections of the White Paper.
I have given the basis of the statistical calculations as requested by the Deputy.
The methodology, not the basis.
If the Deputy wants the details of the calculation I would, of course, require notice of that question.
Was the same crystal ball used as was used for the three programmes for economic expansion?
I am making a serious suggestion to the Minister that, rather than being obliged to put down ponderous questions at great length and at public expense——
And getting evasive answers.
We would like to know the Minister's general methodology, where he took into account the analysis of the effective price changes, the aggregates of commodities and the demographic structures. We must have a summary of the discussions between the Government Departments and the State agencies if we are to have a serious political debate during the course of the referendum. Information should be given to economic and political correspondents. We need this information. I gather that it is available. The Minister should now publish an appendix to the White Paper as a matter of urgency.
May I also urge the Minister in the same direction? It is most unfortunate that these unsupported figures have been published, not because I find fault with them since there are hardly any of them that I would quarrel with as the probable outcome of calculations, and my own calculations come out about the same——
The Deputy is making a statement.
I am asking the Minister would he not agree that, if we are to persuade people on the facts about the EEC, they must be given the facts and shown how the figures are arrived at. May I urge him as a matter of great urgency to publish a technical Appendix 11 of the NIEC report on concerned. The Government have nothing to hide in this matter and have everything to lose by appearing to have anything to hide. They must come clean and publish the data to show clearly to the country that these are well-founded calculations.
I will consider that matter.
Question No. 28.