Vol. 356 No. 1
asked the Taoiseach if, in view of the unavailability of statistics for emigration in 1983 and 1984 and in view of the Government's inability to identify present trends in emigration, he will initiate an investigation into emigration patterns since the last census with the assistance of second and third level colleges, foreign embassies and Irish associations particularly in Britain.
4.
asked the Taoiseach if he will give special responsibility to a Minister of Government or a Minister of State to consider all aspects of the alarming increase in emigration; and if he will make a statement on the matter.
I propose to take Questions Nos. 3 and 4 together. I do not accept that there has been an alarming increase in emigration. The evidence from the CSO is that their best estimate of net emigration in the period April 1981 to April 1984 is an average of 6,000 a year, and their best estimate suggests that net emigration in the year to April 1984 was less than in the year to April 1983.
The most recent information available from the school leavers survey and the Higher Education Authority's report does not suggest a high level of emigration. For example, it is estimated that, of over 62,000 school leavers in 1983, only 1,500 had emigrated in the following year. Fewer than 500 primary degree recipients in the same year and about 250 other third level award recipients are estimated to have left — many of them for further study or training.
The Deputy's contention that emigration has commenced at a substantial rate does not receive any support from these data.
Does the Taoiseach honestly believe the figure he has just read out, of 6,000 people per year emigrating from the country at present, in the light of all the experience and all the estimates coming from very worthwhile sources? Let me quote two such sources to him. One is the figure given by the Irish Association in England in "Today Tonight" during the week of 30,000 people and the second is The Irish Times today which contains a very good article emanating, I believe, from the American Embassy indicating that 55,000 holiday visas were given out last year and the estimate of the people in the embassy is that 5,000 of those are remaining in the US in an illegal capacity. In view of those facts will the Taoiseach stop giving us this statistic which he had given to the House already on 22 January? It is totally inaccurate, and I put it to him that there is now a very serious problem with regard to the number of people ——
The Deputy should confine himself to asking questions.
I cannot accept the Deputy's conclusion. I accept that the best estimate of net emigration furnished by the CSO is subject to a margin of uncertainty and is based on data which are necessarily incomplete and is only a kind of census so that we can get an accurate assessment of the inter-censual emigration. A problem exists in assessing that and it is necessary perhaps to look to other information. The best information we have, which is the most solid, is the figures from the sampling of school leavers and the HEA's report which gives us a picture of the number of people emigrating in the year after completing their education. These figures show a low proportion involved, in the case of school leavers 1,500 out of 62,000. Also the CSO tell me that the numbers contacting various Irish——
It is a laugh.
There is the problem the Taoiseach had better address himself to.
To say that the labour survey I am talking about and the statistics of the HEA are a laugh makes a laugh of the Opposition. At least they are reasonably solid data, not speculative in character. The only other information I can add is that the CSO tell me that the numbers contacting Irish societies and Irish centres in Britain are quite small and, in so far as they exist, are a very inadequate basis for measuring emigration.
Has the Taoiseach or any member of Government been in contact with the embassies — US, Canadian, Australian or British — to ascertain the veracity of what Deputy Fahey has confirmed? I have the same information directly from those embassies. Secondly, has the Taoiseach been directly in contact with, for instance, the Federation of Irish Societies in Britain who will confirm to him that the figures he has trotted out here from the HEA or whatever are just a laugh, as I said? Is the Taoiseach not aware that the people in Britain who are dealing with this and trying to cope with it are so alarmed that they are seeking a discussion with him and probably with the Opposition to see how we can provide for the welfare of young people? In the light of those facts would the Taoiseach not acknowledge that Government have a special responsibility to young people? In the light of those facts, will he not consider giving that special responsibility to some member of Government to ensure that those who are forced by the policies of this Government to go are at least properly prepared and advised in advance? At this point they are not. If the Taoiseach wants to ignore those facts he can do so, but they are facts.
That is a long statement.
I can tell the Deputy that the CSO state that the numbers contacting various Irish societies and Irish centres in Britain are quite small.
Has the Taoiseach been in contact with them? I have.
I will pass on to the Deputy information coming from the relevant source, the CSO, in regard to that. As I have said, the figures in respect of school leavers and those leaving higher education supply the only solid and reliable data we have and do not confirm what is being alleged.
The Taoiseach's own backbenchers will tell him about the applications they get every day.
They are the ones who explain what you could not understand.
We must confront not this issue being put forward by the Opposition but the fact that there are not opportunities for emigration. People are not emigrating and we must try to cope with this problem at home. It is here in the form of unemployment. That is the issue, and to try to turn it into emigration to evade the issue of domestic unemployment is very foolish.
In view of the projections in Building on Reality, 1985-1987 and the provisions in 1985 for unemployment of 217,500 and the fact that in January this year the number exceeded 234,000, may we take it that continuing and increasing emigration is an essential element for the realisation of the Government's plan Building on Reality?
No.
Is it not clear that unless there is a continuing drain of emigration the figures in the Government's plan and the provision for unemployment in the budget expenditure are totally unreasonable——
That is a speech on some document.
——and that the Government are depending totally on continuing emigration to realise their projections?
The Deputy once more and regrettably is displaying his ignorance. If he had read Building on Reality he would know that the estimates on unemployment are based on one of two sets of alternative projections by demographic experts in respect of emigration, that the lower estimate of emigration was chosen and is the basis of that report, an estimate which involves in the next two years a net emigration rate of 5,000 per annum. That may turn out to be right or otherwise but it is the basis on which the plan was prepared. It does not require, provide for or include in any form a high level of emigration as the Deputy would know if he had bothered to read the report rather than making a fool of himself here.
The figure in the plan is 220,000.
I am calling on Deputy Fahey and I am asking Deputy O'Kennedy to resume his seat.
The Taoiseach should read his own document. The unemployment of 220,000 as projected in that document is now 234,000.
Deputy O'Kennedy is ignoring the Chair. I have called Deputy Fahey who has also tabled a question.
Before the young people of Ireland begin regarding all of us politicians with total cynicism, will the Taoiseach put away that document in which he reads that between 5,000 and 10,000 people are emigrating? I am asking him in all sincerity to take up the request in my question because I have contacted the embassies and the Irish associations in Britain——
Has the Deputy a question?
—— and in the US and all of them have agreed that there are now 30,000 people leaving Ireland each year.
The Deputy is making a speech.
In the light of this figure, would the Taoiseach contact the embassies abroad and also the second and third level colleges who are aware of how many of their students have left the country and would he accept the figures given particularly in The Irish Times and in the “Today Tonight” programme by the people on the ground, so to speak, especially those in Irish associations in Britain? Would the Taoiseach initiate an investigation for the purpose of establishing the number of people who are leaving the country?
That is a speech, a good speech perhaps but a speech nevertheless.
The reason I believe the Taoiseach should change his stance——
It is absurd for the Deputy to call this a question.
I shall try to extract a question from what the Deputy has been saying and to answer it if I am allowed to do so.
That type of flippancy ill becomes the House.
There is nothing flippant about the subject in question.
The Taoiseach was not so good on television the other night.
With 600 people leaving the country this week, would the Taoiseach disregard the document he has quoted from and begin a proper investigation into the numbers leaving?
In reply to that interesting speech, I would point out first that school leavers are contacted and that there is a survey, a document with which the Deputy must be familiar if he has any serious interest in this subject, that shows that for the most recent 12 months period available — that is in respect of those leaving school in mid-1983 — only 1,500 of the 62,200 had emigrated. The Deputy may find that unpalatable.
It is not true.
That is the one piece of information we have from that source about school leavers. It is based on a sampling technique which is reasonable and appropriate to give an accurate result with a certain limited margin of error. The other information we have and which is practical is the Higher Education Authority Report which gives specific figures for the numbers who have left. There is no point in the Deputy producing a mythical figure of an emigration rate of 30,000. That simply shows a degree of ignorance and irresponsibility which is inappropriate.
It is not a mythical figure.
While the Deputy's figure is obviously absurd there are genuine difficulties in assessing the precise level of net emigration between censuses. I have said very carefully that the best estimate for the past three years is 6,000 per year. The method by which the figure has to be arrived at is a method which is uncertain and unsatisfactory and I would not place undue reliance on it. The better figures are those we can get from specific surveys such as the school leavers survey and the Higher Education Authority Report.
Would the Taoiseach accept the word of the American Embassy that between 5,000 and 6,000 illegal emigrants have left this country for America alone in the past 12 months?
If the Americans deport that number of people to Ireland, I will accept that figure.
One can only think of Nero as the Taoiseach continues.
If the Taoiseach insists on ignoring reality that is his business but in regard to his comment on Building on Reality, would he like to tell the House how, other than by way of emigration, he can reconcile the projection in that document of an unemployment figure of 220,000 at the end of 1984 when the figure in that respect at the end of January 1985 was 234,000 which the Government underpinned by way of provision for an average of 217,500 in 1985?
This is a debate on emigration.
I am referring to the Taoiseach's document. How can the Government achieve their projection unless they are relying on continuing emigration to reduce the number on the live register?
The relevance to emigration is slightly remote but let us consider the facts. The estimate in Building on Reality for the level of unemployment at the end of 1984 was 220,000, seasonally adjusted. The actual figure was 221,000 seasonally adjusted. The Deputy should not try to fool the House or the people by producing figures that are not comparable with each other, by producing figures that are not seasonally adjusted and comparing them with figures that are seasonally adjusted. His tongue-in-cheek approach of trying to fool people will not get him anywhere. As I have said, the future projections of unemployment are based on the projections for employment set out in the plan and on the low figure of the alternative figures offered by the demographic experts. They involve net emigration of 5,000 in the next two years.
I must move on to Question No. 5. I have been more than generous on that last question.
How can a figure of 234,000 be adjusted to 221,000?
Deputy O'Kennedy is shouting down the Chair and that is very unbecoming, to put it at its mildest. The Chair is giving a discretion under Standing Orders.
What the Taoiseach is saying is very worrying.
