asked the Minister for Labour the forecast for employment which his Department has drawn up for the years 1989 to 1992 inclusive; if he is in a position to forecast at this stage the probable impact that the completion of the internal market in 1992 will have for various sectors of employment; and if he will make a statement on the matter.
Ceisteanna — Questions. Oral Answers. - Employment Forecast.
7.
The maintenance and creation of employment is a function of overall macro-economic planning and policy. The main features of the Government's policy in this regard have already been outlined in the Programme for National Recovery which envisages creating 20,000 jobs in manufacturing industry per year together with increases in employment in tourism, international services and other sectors.
No comprehensive studies have been carried out to date on the employment impact of the internal market on various sectors but the Deputy will be aware of the various sectoral studies outlined in the Programme for National Recovery. One study has been published and it is anticipated that a number of other sectoral studies will be published over the next couple of months.
Without being in any way critical, sections of the Programme for National Recovery when it comes to job creation would be worthy entrants for the Booker prize for literature and fiction. That is not the question I asked the Minister. What I asked was if his Department were in a position now to forecast the impact on employment in the various sectors of the economy that the completion of the internal market will bring about. What plans have the Department to undertake that kind of work? It has nothing to do with the Programme for National Recovery.
It has. Section V, paragraph 11 (vii), of the Programme for National Recovery states:
a sector by sector development strategy based on
(a) market research at home and abroad which will identify development and employment potential,
(b) our natural resources.
(c) the new advanced skills in our workforce and
(d) the achievement of increased market share in selected sectors and markets.
The strategies which we highlight in the programme which are being undertaken are in the areas of electronics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, textiles, clothing, plastics, mechanical engineering and furniture. I understand they are all at an advanced stage within the Department of Industry and Commerce. As the House knows, a development plan for the food and drinks industry up to 1992 has already been prepared by the IDA in conjunction with the Department of Agriculture and Food and was launched some time ago. I believe that those sectoral reports under the Programme for National Recovery will show the potential for jobs between now and 1992.
Perhaps we are at crosspurposes on this. Would the Minister not agree that it is his primary function to anticipate, if possible, the impact on existing employment that the completion of the internal market would bring about, particularly in those areas which previously benefited from national tariff barriers? What steps will his Department take to analyse the impact, for example, on the reduction in the existing levels of employment in those areas which will be exposed when the market is completed in 1992? It seems that what the Minister referred to relates more to the Department of Industry and Commerce than to his Department.
The jobs issue is a matter for the Department of Industry and Commerce. The maintenance and creation of employment is a function of overall macro-economic planning of policy. The Department of Labour would not calculate those figures in the first place. What I am saying is that because of our involvement in the Programme for National Recovery the sectors where we are likely to obtain increased employment or where there is likely to be reduced employment, depending on the effects of 1992, will be shown up in the major review, sector by sector. The Departments of Industry and Commerce, Labour and Finance are involved in the monitoring committee which is devising these sectoral reports.
Does the Minister not agree that there will be winners and losers in the internal market? Does he accept that areas which have enjoyed traditional protection in our economy such as financial services and those in building societies and so on have already identified threats to them? Does he not consider that he has a primary responsibility, having regard to the functions of FÁS, to anticipate what the impact will be and develop strategies for retraining, redeployment and if necessary the development of new skills? Is he saying that the Department do not know what will happen with the existing levels of employment, have no plans to measure it and have no proposals to counteract it? Is that, in effect, his reply?
No. The sectoral reports will show up the pluses and minuses. In areas where the need arises the policy unit of the Department in conjunction with FÁS will be involved in training programmes. These sectoral reports will show up areas of difficulty and areas of advantage between now and 1992 and we can act on those reports.
The Minister has admitted that there has not been any comprehensive analysis or attempt at a comprehensive forecast of the employment implications. As Minister responsible for Manpower policy and Manpower forecasting, is he embarrassed admitting that to the Dáil?
No, but first of all——
The Minister is very difficult to embarrass.
——the job creation area is a matter for the Department of Industry and Commerce. The point I am making is that when we receive these sectoral reports the whole economy will have to react to them — the Department of Industry and Commerce, the IDA, FÁS and any other agencies involved. Until then there will not be available figures saying what the employment potentials are in each sector. I am telling the House now that those figures are not available. When the sectoral report is to hand we shall see the position.
The Minister is placing great faith in these committees and reports, more faith than some of the participants directly involved place in them.
That is a different matter. At least some of the figures achieved this year by co-operation are far better than anything achieved in the past six or seven years.