asked the Taoiseach if any estimate is yet available of the level of emigration from this country during 1988; if not, when the figures are expected to be available; and if he will make a statement on the matter.
11.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Emigration Figures.
9.
asked the Taoiseach the estimated number of people who emigrated from this country in (a) 1987 and (b) 1988.
56.
(Limerick East) and Mr. J. Mitchell asked the Taoiseach the latest estimate of net emigration in (a) 1987 and (b) 1988.
I propose to take Questions Nos. 9, 11 and 56 together. In order to determine the actual numbers of inward and outward migrants in any period it would be necessary to have comprehensive documentary or other administrative procedures relating to the movement of persons into and out of the State. As such procedures are not in force the only reliable estimates of migration flows are those for net migration, i.e. the difference between the inward and outward flows between successive Censuses of Population.
Annual population estimates (which are subject to revision when the results of the next Census become available) are made in respect of mid-April of each year from which estimates of net migration can be derived for the 12 months to mid-April. The estimates of net migration for the 12 months periods to mid-April 1987 and 1988 are net outward flows of 27,000 and 32,000 respectively. The estimate for the 12 months to mid-April 1989 is expected to be available during August.
Is the Minister telling the House that he, and the Government, do not have any idea of the number of people who have emigrated since April 1988? If not, how can we accept that the job or unemployment statistics, or the other statistics produced, indicate that there is buoyancy in job creation?
As I indicated, any population estimates are finalised in mid-April each year. At this point we have only concluded two-thirds of the year and it is not possible to give any accurate indication of migration for 1988-1989 but figures show that there will be a slight increase in the figure for the year. At this point, due to a lack of information it will not be possible to be more accurate than that.
Will the Minister indicate the size of the possible increase and whether the increased emigration would account for the apparent drop in the unemployment figures?
No, that information is not available. I have dealt with the question which requested a statement on the matter. It was a purely statistical question. I am sure the Deputy would not wish me to hazard a guess at this stage.
This is particularly——
Deputy Michael D. Higgins. I have called Deputy Michael D. Higgins. Order, please.
In view of the Minister's previous answers in this House during the lifetime of this Government, is the Minister of State satisfied with the statistical procedures? What proposals has the Minister to compile more accurate estimates not only of gross emigration but also on more age specific counts and would he not agree that that is absolutely essential, as the question suggested, for accurate social welfare projections, employment projections and for basic planning?
The question is essentially statistical. I cannot allow any extension of that matter.
My question is about the adequacy of the statistical procedures.
I appreciate the Deputy's point of view.
The Minister in his reply——
I have not got an answer.
The Minister's reply in following up the statistical nature of the problem indicated that on the basis of figures to date, it was expected that emigration would show an increase. Could the Minister indicate to the House the range of increase — will it be 1 per cent or 5 per cent or 10 per cent?
The Deputy has already adverted to that aspect of the matter.
The Minister did not reply.
We cannot have the luxury of repetition at Question Time.
The indications are that there may be a very slight increase, but it is not possible at this stage with four months of the year remaining to be more explicit than that.
In view of the seemingly total lack of accuracy, and the uncertainty about emigration, would the Minister ask the Government to consider making representations to the United Kingdom Government to have included in the 1991 census sheet, a question in relation to ethnic origin? This could be very important.
That is a separate question.
Question No. 10 please.