Vol. 412 No. 5
23 Mr. Ryan asked the Minister for Finance if he will outline the economic growth rate which he estimates as necessary to honour the public service pay agreement and other non-pay commitments in the Programme for Economic and Social Progress for 1992 and 1993; and if he will make a statement on the matter.
There is no unique economic growth rate which would permit the implementation of the various Programme for Economic and Social Progress measures affecting the budget while at the same time, enabling the overriding fiscal objective of lowering the national debt/GNP ratio towards 100 per cent by end-1933 to be achieved. Much would depend on the source or composition of any given growth rate. Growth can be tax and employment intensive to varying degrees, depending in particular on its composition as between consumption, investment, stockbuilding and exports. In addition, the necessary rate of growth would clearly be a function of other developments affecting the fiscal balance, both matters within Government control, for example the degree to which measures not impinging on Programme for Economic and Social Progress commitments were taken, and matters outside Government control, for example unemployment costs arising from altered migration patterns essentially prompted by external developments.
