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Dáil Éireann díospóireacht -
Thursday, 12 Dec 1991

Vol. 414 No. 6

Written Answers. - Manufacturing Output and Retail Sales.

Donal Carey

Ceist:

49 Mr. Carey asked the Minister for Finance his views on whether the manufacturing output index for the quarter ended August 1991, which shows an increase of less than 1 per cent in the volume of manufactured goods, and the retail sales volume index for the quarter ended July 1991, which also shows a volume increase of less than 1 per cent, are both indicators of an economy in serious trouble; and against the background of these indices; if he will outline the growth expected in GNP by the Government in 1991 and the estimated growth rate for 1992.

I presume that the Deputy is referring to the manufacturing output index for the quarter ending August and the retail sales index for the quarter ending July, in each case by comparison with the same period in 1990. On that basis the manufacturing output index is up by 0.9 per cent and the retail sales index shows no change. Later figures on retail sales show that in the quarter to August, the index is down by 0.7 per cent compared with the same period of 1990.

A more complete assessment of this year's performance may be obtained by comparing data for January to August with those for the same period of 1990. This shows manufacturing production up by 2.7 per cent this year, but retail sales down by 0.9 per cent.

The weakness in retail sales reflects a substantial fall in sales from garages. This segment of the retail market, here as well as in most European countries, has experienced a setback this year. The remainder of retail sales was 2.3 per cent higher in January-August than in the same period of 1990.

The two indicators show that the economy is not expanding as rapidly as last year's record performance. However, they do not suggest an economy in "serious trouble". In fact, against a background of international weakness, the Irish economy is holding up relatively well.

In relation to the expected growth in GNP in 1991, I would remind the Deputy that the Taoiseach, as Minister for Finance, replied to questions on this topic on 12 November last. I do not propose to revise the assessment given then, which was for GDP growth for 1991 of 1.75 per cent and GNP growth of 1.25 per cent.

I will indicate my view of growth prospects for 1992 on Budget Day.

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