Denis Foley
Ceist:13 Mr. Foley asked the Minister for Finance the number on the live register which was employed regarding the 1996 budget calculations; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [5571/96]
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Unemployment Statistics.
For public expenditure purposes, it was assumed that the average number on the live register in 1996 will be 275,000.
Arising from the Minister's reply, I think the number on the live register is hovering at just over 280,000. How does the Minister reconcile his estimate for public expenditure in the forthcoming year with his constant claim that according to the labour force survey unemployment is falling and that there are far more people at work than the live register tends to suggest? Does he accept that the labour force survey distorts the situation by confusing part-time work with full-time employment?
The question is very clearly a statistical one.
It has been hard to be accurate about our projections. Our budgetary provision in 1994 was for an annual average of 289,000 people on the live register. The actual average outturn for the year was 282,000. The cost to the taxpayer of each additional 1,000 people on the live register is approximately £3.4 million. Last year we took a view based on the calculations made by the economic forecasting sections in the Department of Finance and the Department of Social Welfare that, given the outturn of the economy, the figure would be 266,000. However, the average outturn for the year was 278,000, an increase of 12,000. We have no reason at this early stage of the year to alter our forecast of 275,000.