John Bruton
Ceist:9 Mr. J. Bruton asked the Taoiseach if the Central Statistics Office compiles figures on per capita GDP for each county and the other economic and statistical indicators available on a county basis. [25449/98]
Ceisteanna—Questions. - Statistics Compilation.
John Bruton
Ceist:10 Mr. J. Bruton asked the Taoiseach the economic data and statistical indicators compiled by the Central Statistics Office on a county basis. [25608/98]
I propose to take Questions Nos. 9 and 10 together.
The CSO does not compile official statistics of GDP at county level because of some data inadequacies and the fact that such estimates are not meaningful for small areas. However, as an exceptional measure, the CSO provided on Tuesday, 24 November broad indicative levels of GDP per capita in each county for 1995. These estimates were subject to a number of qualifications.
The Central Statistics Office compiles a wide range of statistics on a county basis, including, for example, detailed information from the census of population, annual data on industry from the census of industrial production and detailed information on agriculture from the large-scale farm structure survey undertaken every two years.
Is the Minister aware that the rate of participation in third level education in parts of Dublin is estimated at less than 15 per cent? Is there a breakdown of the information the Central Statistics Office has been able to compile on a district electoral division basis so that the statistics are area specific? The Minister quoted statistics for the whole of Dublin. However, parts of Dublin are worse off than any other part of the country. Does the Minister agree that we not only need statistical analysis on a county by county basis so that policy decisions can be made, but that it should also be available on a smaller unit basis so that counties such as Dublin can come to terms with the problems people face, such as lack of access to educational facilities?
The Central Statistics Office is trying to provide meaningful statistics which allow the Government to make policy decisions. The national plan and Exchequer and other European funding is being targeted at the black-spots. We do not have GDP figures on a district electoral division basis as the distortions would be more troublesome than those on a county basis. The new quarterly national household survey, which is undertaken by the CSO, is showing some interesting statistics. It is a rolling programme which is beginning to be used in policy making.
Does the Minister agree that there is a belief that everyone in south Dublin is doing well? I know there are serious problems in north Dublin, the inner city and in places such as Ballymun, Darndale, west Dublin, Tallaght and Clondalkin. There is a perception that the south inner city is part of south Dublin which is doing well. However, that is not the case. Parts of the south inner city are as badly off as the areas I mentioned. Does he agree that as legislators and policy makers we should have a breakdown of the statistics on educational facilities, housing, etc. when making decisions? As the Minister responsible to the House for statistics, I ask him to look anew at the way statistics are compiled to ensure they are broken down, particularly in places as densely populated as Dublin, so that we can target resources at areas of need and that we do not imagine all the people south of the River Liffey are well off when they are not.
That question was probably addressed to the right Deputy. Anybody who has stood for election in Dún Laoghaire, Dublin South or Dublin South-Central knows that these are reputed to be well off areas, but there are substantial pockets of disadvantage throughout those areas which require attention.
The Deputy asked about more data on housing, educational disadvantage, educational attainment rates, etc. All of that information is available and I can get it for him. With regard to the numbers succeeding to third level above certain ages, the ratios and percentages coming from different backgrounds and housing, much of that information is now available in the quarterly National Household Survey. It may not be available by district electoral division but it is certainly available by larger area.
Dr. Upton
Given that the Minister stated the CSO view that the figures are not meaningful, is it not ridiculous to draw conclusions from them? There is a range of interpretations possible from these figures and from other data, such as the household budget survey which has the capacity to turn upside down the conclusions which are drawn. County Wexford, for example, comes out as quite well off in these statistics, yet if one uses the household budget survey data it comes out as one of the poorest parts of the country. South Leinster fits into that category. Are we just groping around in the dark? Are we reaching conclusions which might fit an objective when there is a series of data available which would contradict the general tone what is being concluded?
We should be clear that when we talk about statistics not being meaningful we are talking about the CSO's view that to measure GDP as a particular indicator on a county basis is not meaningful or reliable. That is the opinion of the CSO. The reason for that was explained in the House and publicly a number of times. Where there are certain clusters of large industry, the pay packets may be in one county and the homes in another. All these reasons have been thrashed out in the House and elsewhere. It seems to have been accepted that to generate GDP figures on a county basis is difficult. I assume the CSO will continue to work on trying to develop and perfect a system, but it only produced these figures on one occasion on an indicative basis.
The Deputy's other question was whether these figures contradict other statistics. There is a range of information produced on a county basis, such as the census of population, data on industry, and agriculture and farm surveys. The quarterly national household survey produces such information. Whether one can reconcile all of those with the GDP figure is obviously a question for the statisticians.
The Minister's reply gives rise to all kinds of queries. Why did the CSO issue figures which it subsequently stated were unreliable? Surely that undermines the credibility of the CSO. It issued figures which were unreliable at a time when there was a major political debate about the veracity or otherwise of other statistics.
Who made the decision that the CSO would publish such statistics? Was it at the request of the Minister of State, Deputy Brennan, who has overall responsibility for the CSO? Was it a decision which they generated themselves in order to be helpful? Given the inadequacy of the GDP and GVA figures which EUROSTAT is applying to our eligibility for Structural Funds, what statistics will the Government use to progress the national development plan? If it bases them on inadequate EUROSTAT figures for planning purposes, the Government must have some other basis for planning.
Given that the Government made the decision to include two additional counties in the application for full Objective One status, what statistics were used by the Government to establish Clare and Kerry's eligibility for inclusion? What mechanism was used by the Government to strip out figures which it considered not to be applicable in the case of Clare and Kerry? Why do those figures not also apply to Offaly, north Tipperary and other areas?
The CSO issued these figures in response to a parliamentary question from Deputy Quinn. The CSO pointed out that it was doing so to be helpful. I posed the same question. I would probably have thought that it was not a helpful thing to do. However, the CSO is statutorily independent. When the question was tabled the CSO informed me that it proposed to answer it in this way. I did not interfere in that decision. It was a CSO decision.
It was the Minister of State's decision to answer the question.
My information is that the CSO is statutorily independent. When a question is tabled seeking information, it is not the practice, whatever about the law, for the Minister to refuse to issue those statistics. Being statutorily independent, the CSO can decide to respond to a parliamentary question and give the information it has always given. That was my advice and I did not involve myself in this matter once the CSO had made its decision.
I asked officials in the CSO why they were doing this and made the point that I believed it would be confusing. I stated that if the CSO was of the view that the figures were not particularly reliable, it did not make any sense to produce them. The CSO felt that Deputy Quinn's parliamentary question deserved a response. I did not demur from that decision.
I assume a broad range of figures will be used for the national development plan. It will not just be GDP but the whole range of statistics available from the CSO. Our main sources will be the CSO, the Central Bank and the development and State agencies. It will be a broad range of statistics and not a narrow indicator. It will come from across the system from State companies and elsewhere.
The western seaboard was measured as a region. An earlier parliamentary question indicated that the region came out at or 72.3 per cent or 73.2 per cent. The measurement was not county by county and tacked on. The western seaboard was measured as a region. On that basis it became the subject of the application.
From where were the figures for Kerry and Clare derived? They were not calculated and added on, but there must be a county by county measurement to create the regional figure.
It is a bit like the d'Hondt system — it is the Healy-Rae system.
In the same way that we do not have figures for Leitrim or Mayo, the region was taken as a region and measured on that basis.