The national development plan is predicated on a continuation of strong labour force growth, albeit at a slower rate than in recent years. An annual average increase of about 2 per cent is forecast, which corresponds to an increase of about 250,000 in the labour force over the period of the plan. This is based on estimates of the natural increase in the labour force, augmented by higher labour force participation by women and the continuation of net immigration. These forecasts represent a reasonable assessment of likely future labour market developments.
Employment in the period ahead is expected to grow at an annual average rate of at least 2 per cent. Undoubtedly, with unemployment at record low levels and projected at this historically low level into the future, the labour market will remain very tight. The Government is pursuing a wide range of policies to ensure that the economy remains competitive and continues to grow in a sustainable and low inflationary way. In recent replies to the House, I described the broad range of initiatives taken to enhance labour supply and the skills of the current workforce. These include fiscal initiatives such as the introduction of tax credits and the removal of persons earning up to £100 from the tax net. Programmes aimed at systematically engaging with the unemployed and supporting them into employment are particularly significant in that regard. The response to skills bottlenecks is being pursued through the implementation of the recommendations proposed by the expert group.
Facilitating women's participation in the labour market will further enhance our labour supply. As I indicated, we need to ensure that women who have been out of the labour force have a significant incentive to return to work and to do more to ensure that child care provision does not act as a constraint. The forthcoming budget will include significant initiatives in this area.
Immigration has been and will remain an important source of skills required to meet the needs of our growing economy. Irish people returning home and EEA nationals who do not require work permits constitute the bulk of our immigrants. This flow can be supplemented by an orderly intake of non-EEA nationals under a work visa regime which matches the intake of the identified skill needs of the economy. It is proposed to establish an inter-departmental group to consider such a scheme and following consultation with the social partners to report to Government by the end of February.