Dáil Éireann díospóireacht -
Wednesday, 15 Dec 1999

Vol. 512 No. 7

Written Answers. - Skill Shortages.

David Stanton

Ceist:

86 Mr. Stanton asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment if her attention has been drawn to a study carried out into the skills shortage in the economy; the number of workers required in each of the broad areas, by skill category, in each of the next three years; the way in which these workers will be supplied; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [27314/99]

Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment (Ms Harney)

I am aware of several recent reports and studies which reflect issues of labour demand and supply. These include, for instance, the National Development Plan 2000 to 2006 and the recent study by Goodbody Stockbrokers on the plan.

The national development plan forecast potential average annual GNP growth of 5%, and productivity growth of 3% in GNP terms, in the period to 2006. At the level of aggregate demand, employment in the period ahead is expected to grow at an annual average rate of 2% per annum, during the period of the plan.

The NDP is predicated on a continuation of strong labour force growth, albeit at a slower rate than in recent years. An annual average increase of about 2% is forecast. This is based on estimates of the natural increase in the labour force, augmented by higher labour force participation and the continuation of net immigration. These forecasts represent a reasonable assessment of likely future labour market developments.

The sectoral breakdown and-or occupational breakdown of these forecasts will be dependent on,inter alia, the changing requirements of employers in response to competitive pressures, the interests and aptitudes of individuals and the availability of education and training places in the public and private education and training systems.

Recent supply and demand side reports and studies assist in manpower forecasting and medium-term planning here. Table 1, for example, has been taken from the recently published Economic and Social Research Institute national survey of private sector vacancies. It provides a breakdown of total vacancies into occupational groups and shows these as a percentage of total employment in each occupation. This shows that the greatest proportionate shortage was among computer and engineering professionals and associate professionals. A further significant category of vacancy was among skilled maintenance and production workers – craftspersons.

Table 1: Number & Percentage of Vacancies by Occupational Group

Occupational Group	Vacancies	% Vacancies/Employment
Computer Associate Professionals	1,400	16
Computer Professionals	1,600	15
Engineering Professionals	1,700	11
Engineering AssociateProfessionals	1,500	11
Science Associate Professionals	700	11
Security	900	11
Skilled Maintenance / Production	8,100	9
Personal Services	4,300	8
Science Professionals	200	7
Sales	7,900	7
Labourers	3,500	5
Transport, Communications	3,100	5
Production Operatives	8,400	5
Clerical, Secretarial	6,800	5
Other Professional	800	3
Other Assoc. Professionals	700	2
Managers, Proprietors	1,900	2
Total	53,600	6

(Source: National Survey of Vacancies in the Private Non-Agricultural Sector 1998, ESRI 1999)

The ESRI Medium-Term Review 1999 to 2005 also represents a valuable report on forecast labour supply and demand for a period ahead. This is complemented by reports under the FÁS-ESRI manpower forecasting series which provide detailed breakdowns of employment forecasts by occupation. Report No. 7 of that series shows that, in the period under review to 2003, in proportionate terms, the largest increases forecast are for professionals, 32.3%, proprietors in services 29.2%, catering occupations, 28.9%, managers, 27.5%, and sales workers, 25.4%.

The Government is pursuing a wide range of policies in order to ensure that the economy remains competitive and continues to grow in a sustainable and low inflationary way. I have described in recent replies to the House the broad range of initiatives taken, both to enhance labour supply and the skills of the current workforce. These include fiscal initiatives aimed at reducing the tax burden and labour market structural measures as notified, for example, in the 1999 employment action plan.

On the specific aspect of skills, a principal element of the response is being pursued through implementation of the recommendations of the expert group on future skills needs. In its first report, the group addressed skill needs of the hardware electronics and software sectors. The group is currently examining skills needs in a range of other sectors.