Vol. 513 No. 1
111 Mr. O'Shea asked the Minister for the Environment and Local Government his assessment of the extent of the problem of global warming; the advice, if any, he has received on the problem; the action, if any, he is taking to address the problem; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [1591/00]
Analysis on the extent of the problem of climate change is provided by the intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC, which is the authoritative source of scientific information in this regard. The IPCC second assessment report – SAR – in 1995 concluded that "the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate" and that "climate is expected to continue to change in the future" as a result.
The IPCC best estimate, based on their mid range of emissions scenarios, projects a global mean surface air temperature increase of about 2º centigrade and a 50cm rise in sea level by 2100 relative to 1990. The high/low range in each case is 1º centigrade to 3.5 centigrade temperature increase and 15cm to 95cm rise in sea level. The IPCC concluded, inter alia, that climate change will cause a maximum surface warming in high northern latitudes in winter, an enhanced and more vigorous global mean hydrological cycle, with increased precipitation and soil moisture in high latitudes in winter, prospects for more severe droughts and-or floods in some places and less severe impacts in others, and increased precipitation intensity, suggesting a possibility for more extreme rainfall events.
The SAR indicates that cuts in global emissions of CO2 of the order of 70% over the next 100 years and beyond will be required to ensure stabilisation of CO2 concentrations at twice the pre-industrial levels.
The IPCC third assessment report on climate change is due to be published later this year, and I will give careful consideration to its conclusions when available.
On the basis of the IPCC first scientific assessment of climate change 1990, my Department commissioned a study "Climate Change Studies on the Implications for Ireland" (B. McWilliams ed., November 1991). This examined the potential impacts on agriculture; forestry; Ireland's flora and fauna; hydrology and freshwater resources; sea level changes; and fisheries and shell fisheries in coastal waters. A copy of the study is in the Oireachtas Library.
I refer to the reply to Questions Nos. 103, 137 and 140 on today's Order Paper regarding the steps being taken to address climate change.
