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Dáil Éireann díospóireacht -
Thursday, 17 May 2001

Vol. 536 No. 4

Written Answers. - Economic Growth.

Charles Flanagan

Ceist:

17 Mr. Flanagan asked the Minister for Finance his views on whether economic growth is slowing to approximately 50% of the pace of 2000; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [12421/01]

Róisín Shortall

Ceist:

47 Ms Shortall asked the Minister for Finance his Department's forecast of the level of economic growth for 2001; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [14241/01]

Michael D. Higgins

Ceist:

53 Mr. M. Higgins asked the Minister for Finance his views on the latest Quarterly Commentary from the ESRI which forecast that growth would fall back significantly in 2001; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [14223/01]

Bernard J. Durkan

Ceist:

128 Mr. Durkan asked the Minister for Finance if he has revised any of his economic projections following developments in the context of the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness and the current and projected inflation rates; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [14454/01]

I propose to take Questions Nos. 17, 47, 53 and 128 together.

At budget time, based on the latest available domestic and international data, my Department forecasted that growth, as measured by real GDP, would be of the order of 8.75% for the year 2001 compared to an estimated GDP growth rate of 10.75% for last year. Real GNP growth of 7.4% was forecasted for this year as compared to 8.6% for 2000. The projected level of growth was founded on a strong domestic environment and buoyant export growth. However, the domestic and international economic situation has changed since budget day. The main factors have been the emergence of foot and mouth disease and the US economic slowdown.

I am aware that a number of domestic and international commentators have taken on board the possible negative impact of such factors and have revised down their forecasts for Ireland's growth rate for 2001 by up to 2%. For example, the ESRI now predict GDP will grow by 6.75% in real terms. However, regardless of which set of forecasts you choose to look at, Ireland's growth rate for the year 2001 will again be considerably in excess of the average growth rate for the EU as a whole.

My Department will publish a revised forecast for 2001 in its Economic Review and Outlook later in the summer.
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