Thomas P. Broughan
Ceist:88 Mr. Broughan asked the Minister for Finance his view on the forecasts for economic growth and employment levels made in the autumn bulletin of the Central Bank; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [25343/01]
Written Answers. - Economic Forecasts.
The Central Bank Autumn Bulletin 2001 contained forecasts of 6.25% and 5% for GDP growth in 2001 and 2002 respectively. Growth in GNP terms was forecast at 6% in 2001 and 4.5% in 2002, with employment increasing by 45,000 in 2001 and by 34,000 in 2002. These forecasts were made prior to 11 September and as such do not take into account the economic implications of the US terrorist attacks on the Irish or global economies. The press release accompanying the autumn bulletin stated that if world trade volumes were reduced by the order of 2% to 3% that this would reduce the Central Bank's GNP forecast for the next year to less than 3.5%.
It is difficult, just a month after the event to assess the full economic impact of the attacks on Ireland's growth and employment prospects. Obviously much depends on the effect on the world economy as a whole and on reactions to the ongoing military response. Estimates by market commentators for Ireland's GNP growth next year vary between 1% and 6%. This illustrates the degree of uncertainty in the current global economic environment. My Department will as usual publish its estimates for economic growth when the budget is being delivered. Policy at this juncture must be geared towards ensuring that, when the international economy recovers, Ireland is positioned to benefit fully from that recovery.
I am confident that in the medium term, as the global economic environment recovers, we can achieve satisfactory levels of growth which will benefit us all.