Dáil Éireann díospóireacht -
Tuesday, 26 Mar 2002

Vol. 551 No. 2

Written Answers. - Economic Forecasts.

Ruairí Quinn

Ceist:

223 Mr. Quinn asked the Minister for Finance the details of the GNP for each of the years 1997 to 2001; the latest estimate made by his Department or bodies under the aegis of his Department of GNP for 2002; the latest forecast, made by his Department or such bodies, of GNP for each of the years 2003 to 2008; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [9781/02]

Minister for Finance (Mr. McCreevy)

National Income and Expenditure data are produced by the Central Statistics Office, and are available up to 2000 on an annual basis. Real growth rates of GNP and each of its components between 1997 and 2000 are shown in table 1 below. No full year figures are available for 2001 and the figures shown are my Department's Estimates made at budget time.

Table 1: Real Annual Growth Rates, per cent

	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001 e
Personal consumption	7.3	7.3	8.2	9.9	6.1
Government exp.	5.5	5.5	6.5	5.4	7.0
Investment	17.9	16.5	14.0	7.0	5.4
Exports	17.4	21.4	15.7	17.8	8.2
Imports	16.8	25.8	11.9	16.6	7.2
GDP	10.8	8.6	10.8	11.5	6.8
GNP	9.4	7.9	8.2	10.4	5.2

Source: CSO

e = Department of Finance estimate.

My Department's Budget 2002 forecasts are based on GNP growth of 3.5% this year. This compares with the Central Bank's winter 2001 bulletin forecast of 3% – 3.5% and an ESRI forecast of 2.1% in its quarterly economic commentary, December 2001. My Department has also produced economic growth forecasts for the period 2003 and 2004, and these are shown in table 2 below.

My Department has not published forecasts beyond 2004. However, I would draw the Deputy's attention to the ESRI's Medium Term Review, 2001 – 2007, completed in advance of the events of September 11 last, which contains forecasts out to 2007. Two main scenarios were considered. Its "benchmark" forecast assumed a relatively benign situation in which the economy slows gently from the very strong growth rates recorded until recently. An accompanying "slowdown" forecast assumed lower growth in the short-term followed by a stronger medium-term performance. Both sets of forecasts are shown in table 2.

Table 2: Real GNP Growth, per cent

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
DoF	3.5	4.8	4.5
ESRI (benchmark)	5.4	4.4	4.0	4.0	4.4	4.3
ESRI (slowdown)	1.8	4.2	5.1	5.3	6.1	4.6

Source: Department of Finance and Medium Term Review 2001-2007, ESRI.