From Ireland's point of view, agriculture will be a crucially important element in the negotiation of the new WTO round. It will also be crucially important to a successful overall outcome to the negotiations. In the overall negotiation of the new round, agriculture is only one of a number of elements on which it will be difficult to reach a conclusion. Such is its significance, however, that it is most unlikely there will be any agreement on a new round without agreement on the agricultural component.
The declaration agreed at the WTO ministerial conference in Doha in November 2001 established the mandate for the negotiations on the new round. In agriculture, it provides for comprehensive negotiations aimed at substantial improvements in market access, with a view to phasing out all forms of export subsidies, and substantial reductions in trade distorting domestic support. The mandate also provides that special and differential treatment for developing countries will be an integral part of all elements of the negotiations and of the new round. In addition, non-trade concerns which relate to such issues as the additional costs imposed on EU producers by legal requirements to respect environmental, food safety and animal welfare standards that are, in general, higher than those observed in third countries, will be taken into account.
The mandate clearly signals ambitious objectives in the areas of market access, export subsidies and domestic support. However, a qualifying phrase was inserted into the Doha mandate to the effect that the outcome of the negotiations on these three issues should not be prejudged. Ireland and France were responsible for achieving the insertion of this important qualification to the Doha ministerial declaration. Without it, the commitment which WTO member countries were signing up to had the potential for very serious consequences for European and Irish agriculture, particularly in the area of export subsidies.
There are five elements, therefore, in the Doha agricultural mandate, each of which is important in the context of a balanced final outcome.
First, the agreement on market access will determine the level of tariff protection which will apply to imports into the EU market. Obviously, the lower the tariff protection the greater the likelihood of increased competition for our products on the internal EU market. There are also likely to be benefits for our exporters as tariff protection in our major third country markets will also be reduced.
Second, in the export area, export subsidies are clearly of major significance to our ability to export to third countries, given that EU prices are in general above, substantially so in some cases, world market prices.
Third, the nature and volume of domestic support are subject to WTO rules because of the potential of such support to distort trade. The EU's system of direct payments is currently exempt from reduction commitments and is classified in the so-called "Blue Box" category. Whether that exemption remains is a matter of central importance in the negotiations.
Fourth, any new agreement must take account of the need to better integrate developing countries into the world's trading system. The EU is already a major contributor to the economies of developing countries. It is the largest importer by far of agricultural products from developing countries. The Everything But Arms initiative recently undertaken by the EU permits the import of all goods, except arms, duty and quota free, into the EU. The EU is prepared to make further concessions to developing countries in the negotiation of the next round.
Fifth, in respect of non-trade concerns, the objective is to ensure that third country producers, who do not incur the level of costs of EU producers in observing various production standards, do not place EU producers at a competitive disadvantage.
The Doha ministerial declaration laid down two important deadlines for the negotiation of the new round. First, modalities, or the overall framework or rules on which a new agreement will be based, were due to be agreed by the end of March 2003. Second, the negotiations on the new round are due to conclude before the beginning of 2005.
The Commission negotiates in the WTO on behalf of the European Union on the basis of a mandate agreed by the Council of Ministers. The current mandate, which Ireland has supported in full, is based on the Agenda 2000 agreement.
When the EU's position on modalities was being prepared, the Minister was concerned about the impact of the EU proposals on market access. At the point when this issue was being agreed in the EU Council of Ministers, Ireland, therefore, entered a declaration in the minutes of the meeting to the effect that our agreement to the modalities position paper was on the basis that minimal tariff reductions would apply under the new round to sensitive products such as beef and butter. The Commission also made a declaration in the minutes to the effect that it would submit the detailed proposals on market access to the Council for agreement, remain vigilant in the negotiations in relation to products which are exposed to international competition and take particular account of sensitive products.
In the event, the end of March 2003 deadline for agreement on modalities was missed. The proposals put forward by the chairman of the WTO committee on agriculture, in which the negotiations on agriculture are proceeding in Geneva, failed to secure widespread support among the WTO member countries. The talks on modalities are now effectively stalled.
The agreement on the mid-term review which was reached by the EU Council of Agriculture Ministers in Luxembourg in the early hours of yesterday morning has the potential to make a significant contribution to the WTO negotiations. The scope for decoupling direct payments, thereby rendering them secure from attempts in the WTO to reduce them, will allow the EU to concentrate its negotiating efforts on the other important elements of the negotiations. Not only, therefore, has the mid-term review agreement the capacity to protect direct payments, it has strengthened the EU's hand in the other areas of negotiation in agriculture by allowing it to concentrate on them.
The agreement on the mid-term review has, therefore, opened up the prospect for agreement on modalities at the WTO ministerial conference in Cancun in September next. Agreement on this important phase of the negotiations will improve the prospects for concluding an agreement on a new round by the beginning of 2005, as envisaged in the Doha ministerial declaration.
The WTO is a major force for good in the world. It is not, as many believe, an unaccountable body forcing free trade on member countries. It is the creation of its member countries and it is the member countries, represented at ministerial level, which decide the rules governing trade between them. The WTO, and its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, is one of the institutions, like the IMF and the World Bank, set up after the Second World War to lay the basis for peaceful co-existence, trade and prosperity. Without internationally accepted rules governing world trade, countries would be free to impose barriers to imports at will and even to stop imports altogether. International trade would be subject to arbitrary and unpredictable action. The dramatic expansion of world trade over the last 60 years or so is a testimony to the benefit of rules-based trade.
Ireland, as a country which is heavily dependent on trade – our exports and imports combined amount to 116% of GNP – has a particular interest in rules-based trade. The Irish agricultural sector is also heavily dependent on rules-based trade. For example, we must export 90% of our beef and 80% of our dairy products. The new WTO round is not, therefore, something to be feared. On the contrary, we have a direct and major interest in a successful conclusion.
Due to its importance, the Minister for Agriculture and Food will attend the next ministerial conference in Cancun. At this stage we have three major objectives in the agricultural area. First, we will be determined to ensure that there will be no concession or imposition on the EU that will require further reform or adjustment of the Common Agricultural Policy. The mid-term review represents, in our view, the final negotiating position of the EU in the round and the Minister will not be prepared to agree to further liberalisation measures which would require further adjustment to the Common Agricultural Policy.
Second, as I have pointed out already, there are five strands to the Doha mandate. We will seek a balanced agreement across all five strands. Finally, while agriculture is only one of the elements which will contribute to overall agreement on a new round, we are determined that agriculture will be negotiated in its own right and will not be sacrificed to provide the basis for an overall agreement.