Ciarán Cuffe
Ceist:181 Mr. Cuffe asked the Minister for Finance the reason growth projections for GDP and GNP for 2003 have been revised downwards. [20942/03]
Written Answers. - Growth Forecasts.
At budget time last year GDP and GNP growth in 2003 were forecast to be 3.5% and 2.2%, respectively. These forecasts were revised to 1% for both GDP and GNP in the Economic Review and Outlook, which was published in August.
There were three major factors in the revision of the forecasts. The first is the budget day forecasts were predicated on a mid-2003 pick up in the international economy, which has been delayed. At this stage there are some signs that a recovery in the international economy may be developing, particularly in the US.
A second factor is that the budget day forecasts were based on preliminary data available for 2002. The CSO have since published their annual national income and expenditure accounts for 2002 which show that growth in 2002 was significantly lower in GNP terms than had been anticipated, 0.1% compared with the budget day forecast of 1.8%. This led to a revision of the base used to calculate the 2003 forecasts.
The third factor was the appreciation of the euro, which adversely impacted on our competitiveness.