I move:
That Dáil Éireann commends the 2004 Estimates for Public Services (Abridged) published by the Minister for Finance on 13th November, 2003.
The Abridged Estimates Volume is the first instalment of the 2004 budget. On budget day I will set out the complete picture of the Government's economic and fiscal strategy for 2004.
Before setting out the strategic focus and the aggregate content of the Estimates, I will deal with the economic context within which they were framed. Ireland has faced a much more challenging economic and business environment over the last 18 months. The economic growth projections which underpinned my last budget assumed that the generally anticipated global recovery would begin from the second half of 2003. Clearly, this did not happen at the pace we expected. As a result, in August the official economic projections for GDP growth in 2003 were revised downwards from 3.5% to 1.5%.
In assessing our economic prospects and framing our spending policies we must, therefore, deal with the world as it is, not as we would wish it to be. In this regard, there are a number of key facts that are relevant to us all and that must inform our thinking. First, Ireland is part of a monetary union where monetary policy is focused on ensuring a low inflation environment, with the ECB aiming to maintain the rate of inflation at close to 2% over the medium term; second, international competition is exerting downward pressure on goods prices and is likely to continue to do so for some time to come; third, we are one of the most open economies in the world; fourth, international competition for jobs and investment is becoming much more intense all the time.
Ireland's position as a small and open economy means that economic developments here are, to a large degree, determined by our ability to supply goods and services to the global economy. To ensure we can continue to compete successfully, we must strive to get our cost levels in line with the European Union as quickly as we can. The decisions made by the Government in framing the 2004 Estimates were taken in this context. They are designed to ensure we create the conditions necessary for the economy to be strongly positioned to benefit from the expected international upturn; maintain and create employment; and increase the share of wealth in the country.
We did not adopt this strategy simply for the purpose of economy in spending or compliance with financial rules. The plain facts are that by creating a low inflation environment, keeping public spending increases in line with resources, keeping debt levels low and planning a coherent investment strategy we will reap strong rewards, not just in the longer term but also in a matter of a couple of years. A key element in this is ensuring a balance between the resources which the Government has at its disposal and what it spends. The exceptional economic growth in the years 1997 to 2000 enabled annual gross spending to be increased very substantially to a high point of 21% in 2001. As economic growth has moderated, we have in the interests of sound management followed a course of bringing spending increases more into line with increases in revenue.
The expectations created by the experience of exceptional high growth are no longer realistic. Lower economic growth means lower revenue growth. Lower revenue acts as a constraint on what the Government can spend. As such, we must limit public spending growth to revenue growth. If we fail to do this, we risk either an early return to higher levels of taxation or excessive levels of borrowing. The Government has kept a tight rein on spending over the last 18 months to ensure this would not happen. As a result, this year we have reduced the gap between revenue and public spending growth. We need to ensure we consolidate this situation. This message of consolidation is the key message I wish to impart to the House today. We must not endanger all we have achieved since 1997 by imprudent management of the economy and the public finances. All sides of the House must recognise that spending growth must be kept at a sustainable level over the medium term. This means future annual public spending increases will have to be very close to this year's level.
Based on the latest estimates as supplied by Departments the summary tables of the Estimates include 2003 forecast outturn figures. The outturn on gross spending is estimated to be higher than provided in the Revised Estimates by some €340 million. However, the additional gross spending is offset by additional receipts from the health levy, moneys recouped from the United Kingdom for health services and higher PRSI income into the social insurance fund, giving a net excess of some €115 million. Accordingly, I now expect gross spending in 2003 will increase by 7.6% over 2002 compared to annual increases of 14.4% and 20.7% in the previous two years. I acknowledge the financial discipline and control shown by my ministerial colleagues and their Departments, particularly this year, in bringing about this outcome.
The measures in relation to financial management and control which I announced in last year's Estimates debate also played a key role in this regard. Particularly important was the monthly reporting to Government on expenditure trends and the requirements placed on Departments in relation to risk assessment and contingency planning to cater for unforeseen pressures.
The strategy underpinning the global and sectoral allocation of resources is twofold: first, as I have indicated, to ensure the global allocation was appropriate to the total level of resources and the promotion of stable economic conditions and sound public finances, and, second, to give priority to the areas of social welfare, health, education, and infrastructure, while meeting our pay obligations under Sustaining Progress.
Health, education and social welfare spending will account for 67% of total Voted spending next year. The gross allocation for the Department of Health and Children will amount to over €10 billion in 2004. Over the period 1997 to 2004 gross expenditure on health will have increased by €6.4 billion or 178%. Cumulative spending on health from 1997 to 2004 is €53,000 million while the share of total national public expenditure on health has increased from 19.2% in 1997 to 24.9% in 2004. There are now about 96,000 staff providing health services compared with 66,000 in 1997. Between 1997 and 2003, an additional 6,000 nurses have been recruited, which amounts to 22% of the total increase. A further 8,500 people, amounting to over 30% of the increase, have been recruited to the medical, dental and health and social care professional grades. This investment has, therefore, seen real improvements in the delivery of frontline health services over this period. However, we must strive ever harder to optimise value for money for the huge level of resources invested each year.
The gross allocation for the Department of Education and Science will be €6.5 billion in 2004. The cumulative increase in gross expenditure on education over the period 1997 to 2004 will amount to €3.3 billion, a doubling of expenditure over the period. The 2004 Estimate provides for nearly 79,000 employees, which effectively means that the pupil-teacher ratio at both primary and second levels has improved significantly in recent years. At primary level the ratio has fallen from 22.2:1 in the 1996-97 school year to 18:1 in the 2002-03 school year, while at second level the ratio has fallen from 16:1 to 13.6:1 in the same period.
The lower pupil-teacher ratio means that there are now approximately 2,500 resource teachers and 1,530 learning support teachers in the primary system to enable children with special educational needs receive a proper level of educational services. There are also over 5,500 special needs assistants employed in first and second level schools to ensure that children with special educational needs in mainstream classes receive the necessary educational supports. These figures show that the increased investment in education has been translated into a higher level of frontline educational services.
The gross provision for social welfare expenditure is €10.6 billion on a pre-budget basis. On this basis, spending in 2004 on social welfare will have increased by almost €5 billion since 1997. Over the same period, the unemployment rate has fallen from 10.3% to 4.4%. This represents a very significant improvement in real terms in the level of social welfare provision. For example, in 1997 the old age contributory pension was €99 per week. It is now, before any increases in budget 2004, over €157 per week. This is an increase of 59%, or 27% in real terms, on the 1997 level. The corresponding increase in the old age non-contributory pension is even greater, at 68%, or 34% in real terms. Child benefit rates have also increased substantially. In 1997 the rate for the first and second child was €38 per month. In 2003 it is €125.60, representing an increase of 231%, or 165% in real terms.
The gross allocation for Exchequer capital expenditure will be €5.5 billion in 2004. When account is taken of public private partnership investment in public projects and the contribution of CIE resources to public transport investment, total capital spending on this basis will be about €5.9 billion or an increase of over €350 million, or 6%, on the figure pertaining to 2003.
Since 1997 the Exchequer has invested over €33 billion in capital expenditure. Its provision is now close to 5% of GNP, as compared with 3.4% in 1997. This is twice the EU average.
Turning to individual sectors, the 2004 provision for capital investment in the transport area will be €1.6 billion, an increase of €1.3 billion or 413% over 1997. Within this total, road investment has increased by €963 million or nearly 320% since 1997, and public transport investment has increased by €322 million, which is 46 times the 1997 level.
The 2004 Exchequer provision for capital investment in housing will be over €1 billion, an increase of €766 million or 275% over that of 1997. This provision will be supplemented by over €650 million of non-voted capital investment by the local authorities.
Health capital investment in 2004 will be €509 million, an increase of €342 million, or 205%, over 1997. Capital investment in education will be €491 million, an increase of €327 million, or 199%, since 1997.
This unprecedented level of investment is funding the implementation of the infrastructural programme of the national development plan. Despite the delays and cost inflation that have affected the NDP infrastructure programme, the reality is that by the end of 2006 the plan will have brought about a very significant improvement in our economic and social infrastructure.
The Estimates continue to give priority to national development plan investment, especially in the key area of infrastructure. This accords with the view articulated by the ESRI in its mid-term review of the national development plan. More generally, while the Government has differed from the ESRI's financial recommendations in some areas, the national development plan Estimates provisions are broadly in line with the ESRI's recommendations.
I accept that the evaluation does contain criticisms on cost overruns and deficient management of infrastructure projects and programmes. It also points to the need to properly evaluate projects. We must strive to ensure the best value for money in the planning and evaluation of infrastructure projects.
My Department is currently revising the capital appraisal guidelines for public sector capital projects and revised guidelines will be issued to Departments and public agencies. The existing guidelines remain in place and relate to the evaluation, planning and execution of capital projects.
I must stress that the onus for proper appraisal and management of capital projects rests with Departments and the implementing agencies. My Department will, however, strive both in the context of the revised guidelines and otherwise to impress on Departments and implementing agencies the need for best practice in regard to evaluation and execution of capital projects.
I am also in favour in principle of a multiannual system of financial envelopes for capital investment. This is recommended by the ESRI and would facilitate more efficient project and programme management by providing greater certainty as to availability of resources over a number of years. I will have more to say on these issues in my Budget Statement.
The provision for Exchequer-funded public service pay and pensions is €14.2 billion, an increase of €1.1 billion, or 8%, on the figure for 2003. The increase comprises the following: the general round increases under Sustaining Progress –€540 million; the 2004 increases arising from benchmarking –€305 million; and other pay provision, including the part-time directive –€265 million. This rate of increase in the pay bill is lower than the rate of increase in any of the past four years.
The largest increase is accounted for by the increases due to the general rounds under Sustaining Progress, which are 3% from 1 January 2004, 2% from 1 July 2004 and 2% from 1 December 2004. In 2003 a six-month pay pause for the public service was secured, which meant that all the increases due under Sustaining Progress are to be paid in 2004. The pay pause in 2003 saved the Exchequer about €180 million this year.
The additional €305 million for benchmarking in 2004 includes about €50 million for the parallel process. This provision and the provision for the general rounds are being made on the basis that there will be verified progress on the conditions outlined in the agreement. The performance verification groups and the relevant Secretaries General have yet to finalise their work. It may be that in some cases the increases will not be paid if some grades or organisations or sectors are in breach of the conditions. However, it is prudent to make provision for the payment given its size.
I am determined that, over the period to which Sustaining Progress refers, the quality of public services will improve. There has been a period of stable industrial relations and I expect this to continue. In addition, there will be benefits to taxpayers through the achievement of the modernisation objectives over the life of the agreement. The longer term benefit of the benchmarking system will be that it will force public service pay determination away from the old, illogical relativities based system towards a better system more closely tied to that which operates in the private sector.
A total of €265 million of the additional pay cost is due to other factors, such as the payment of the increase due to the application of the part-time work legislation in education, an increased provision for the EU Presidency, increments, an extra pay day in 2004 for some staff and an increase in the numbers of pensioners.
Between 1997 and 2002 staff numbers in the public service increased by 59,000, or 27%. I have already alluded to the improved services in health and education that these additional staff have achieved. Nonetheless, in the light of the vastly changed economic and budgetary position, I announced in last year's budget that public service numbers would be capped and would decrease by a modest 5,000 over a three year period.
The Government subsequently agreed the timing and details of the reductions. In agreeing proposals in this area, the Government has endeavoured to provide that frontline service staff would not be targeted for reduction. The cap has now taken effect and a reduction of 2,000 is expected next year. The full effect of the reduction in numbers will materialise in 2005 and 2006.
To summarise, the key features underpinning these Estimates are as follows: we need to consolidate in order that we can be well positioned to reap the rewards of the expected upturn in future economic growth; we must match public spending growth to revenue growth; future increases in public expenditure will have to be kept close to this year's level; the 2004 Estimates provide for an extra €1.9 billion, bringing total planned expenditure to more than €40 billion; and we continue to provide substantial resources for health, education, social welfare and infrastructure.
The 2004 Estimates will enable us to sustain a healthy economy and public finance position in order that we can capitalise on an improved international economic climate. They build on the significantly expanded expenditure base of recent years and, in so doing, provide for considerable investment in the areas of health, education and social welfare. The Estimates also provide for a continued high level of investment in infrastructure to help us become more competitive over the medium term. They are the correct prescription for the economic and investment requirements of the country at this time. I commend the motion to the House.