During the course of the presentation I will provide an overview of the research being carried out in UCC on sustainable energy. We have been active in this field since the late 1970s and have over 25 years of research under our belt. Initially, we researched areas such as wave energy, hydropower and photovoltiacs and, more recently, geothermal energy in buildings, energy performance of buildings, wind power and energy policy research. We are working collaboratively with Cork Institute of Technology on biofuels for transport.
The research is informed by our current situation. Essentially, Ireland has a 58% dependence on imported oil; 2% of our energy comes from renewables. Overall, we have a high level of import dependency and a strong dependence on fossil fuels. Where UCC sees its strength, in terms of research, is in the breadth and depth of its focus. Research is focused on energy supply, wind, the oceans and photovoltaics and the end use of energy, 40% of which occurs in the area of transport. Another 40% is used in buildings. We concentrate our research on these two key end use sectors. We also carry out energy trends analysis and policy research.
Wind energy can be produced in Ireland cheaper than the best new entrant into the electricity market, as calculated for the energy regulator. However, there are two main challenges associated with increasing the amount of wind energy on the system. It is not accurately predictable when wind energy will be available and, equally important, when it will not be. Even if it were predictable, wind energy is still variable. This creates a challenge in trying to integrate increasing amounts of wind energy on the system. The challenge is particularly apparent in Ireland because of our weak level of interconnection in comparison with that in countries such as Denmark where there is a much higher level of penetration but it has a strong interconnection with the Nordpoolelectricity grid. We are working with ESB National Grid in a project supported by SEI on developing a wind energy forecasting system for Ireland.
The graph shows how the work developed in UCC is in the process of being implemented in Denmark. The error in wind energy prediction is mostly in the numerical weather prediction model, that is, predicting the weather. Our focus has been on trying to improve the accuracy of weather prediction models in a way that makes them suitable for wind energy forecasting. Quantifyng the uncertainty is as important as improving the accuracy. The graph on the slide shows that at certain times the band of forecasts is very narrow, which indicates a high level of certainty in the forecast. At other times, depending on the weather system coming in, it is very difficult to predict what the amount of wind energy will be. It is important to be able to quantify this for system operators in order that they can accommodate increased amounts of wind energy.
The second aspect of wind energy relates to variability. Addressing this can be done in a number of ways and depends on the level of interconnection and the flexibility of other plant on the system. The work on which we are focusing is energy storage. We have been involved in an EU project looking at wind hydrogen systems in which one uses wind energy to produce hydrogen. Essentially, one stores the energy in the wind as hydrogen in order that it can be used later either to produce electricity or as a transport fuel.
Turning to page 4 of the presentation, another of the key supply areas is wave energy. In a sense, wave energy can be viewed as a concentrated form of wind energy. Ireland has a significant resource. Wave energy capacity is shown in comparison with what is currently available on the Irish system. In theory, the whole coastline could provide 48 Terawatt-hours of energy. Taking the theoretical available amount of wave energy it is necessary to see what would be constrained by physical infrastructure, as well as the grid infrastructure. Members should see on the slide the reference to a quantified amount of 2.5 Terawatt-hours in the medium term.
Page 5 indicates that the work on wave energy is carried out in the hydraulics and maritime research centre within UCC. Based on some recent work, it suggests a target for Ireland of up to 80 MW to be installed by 2012 and after 2012, installation of 20 MW per year. The focus in wave energy is twofold; meeting our own targets in renewable energy and also our commitments on climate change under the Kyoto Protocol. It can also be viewed as a starting point for an industry in technical development that can be exported. The world market is estimated to be worth in excess of €50 billion according to the DTI in the United Kindgdom. Therefore, it is a potentially significant market that Ireland can have a role in supplying.
The third aspect of energy supply is covered on page 6. This is an area in which our president in UCC has a long standing interest and involvement and is carried out in the Tyndall Institute in Cork. Work is being done on thermophotovoltaic solar cells and also minitiaturised solar cells for ambient light harvesting. A number of key areas are concentrated on within photovoltaics. An example is given on page 7 of one of the thermophotovoltaic projects under way in UCC.
Moving on to energy use in buildings, much of this relates to the EU buildings directive on how to actually assess the energy performance of buildings. A sample energy certificate or label is shown at the bottom of the slide which we are used to seeing on appliances. Essentially, what the directive will bring is a labelling system for buildings. The next page of the presentation shows that what we are focusing on in UCC is measuring the energy performance of buildings.
We are very fortunate to have some interesting case studies. The group has access to the energy, temperature and air circulation data for theMardyke sports arena in Cork. It can use this information to test its performance simulation models to ascertain how they can be validated and improved. Page 8 of the presentation contains a photograph of the Glucksman art gallery, an example of a building with a different function and purpose. An important part of the group's work is its assessment of the energy performance of a number of building types.
Page 9 of the presentation relates to energy and transport and contains a sketch from the Toyota hybrid system. UCC's department of electronic engineering is doing some work on power systems conversion. Details of a different type of fuel system for cars, based on biogas and compressed natural gas, are outlined at the bottom of the page. The research group is trying to bring its strengths in the areas of electrical engineering and system analysis to the energy problems and challenges faced by Ireland.
An explanation of how biogas can come from waste and be used as a fuel in transport is cited on page 10 of the presentation. The group is developing a biofuels project in collaboration with Cork Institute of Technology, the Economic and Social Research Institute and Teagasc. It is drawing up a road map of Ireland's progress in this area between 2010 and 2020. It is determining whether there is potential for indigenous biofuels production and examining how such biofuels compare with imported biofuels.
Page 11 of the presentation relates to energy policy, the final area of the group's research. The group provides external support for Sustainable Energy Ireland by analysing energy trends. It investigates the technological and policy barriers to sustainable energy. It examines the conflicts between the various pillars of energy policy — cost competitiveness, environmental responsibility and security of supply. The project examines how a mechanism in place in Spain to support wind energy might be applied in the Irish context. It has considered the revenues which could be received for wind farms which are supported in Ireland with an adapted version of the Spanish mechanism.
The research group's work with Garrad Hassan on behalf of the regulators on both sides of the Border is outlined on page 12 of the presentation. The work involved an examination of the future of wind energy production and its limits as a system. We tried to determine the point at which wind energy would need to be curtailed and the impact of such a curtailment. The research group has been monitoring the progress made in the achievement of wind energy targets. Members can note the various rates of success in this regard on the bottom of page 12. The AER I programme had a 153% success rate, whereas the most recent competition, AER VI, had a success rate of 10% at the end of 2004. The book has not yet been closed on AER VI projects. This country has not yet managed to deliver on the targets as they have become more ambitious. While it has delivered least-cost energy, it has not delivered on the targets set down.
Page 13 of the presentation relates to some work the research group did with the energy economics group in Vienna University of Technology. I have examined the targets set for 2010 and 2020. The presentation provides a glimpse of the circumstances which would obtain if we were to put in place a target of 20% of electricity originating from renewable sources by 2020. For example, it examines the cost of meeting such a target when compared to the cheapest alternative or the market price for electricity. It also outlines how the short-term 2010 target of 13.2%, our obligation under the directive, compares with a more ambitious 2010 target of 15%. The output of the analysis showed that setting a higher short-term target reduced the costs of meeting a longer-term target. This is to do with learning curves and the stage at which new technologies are introduced.
The final slide on page 13 shows another area we have been examining with Bord Gáis, the security of gas supply. Security of energy supply has a different meaning for people. There are different ways of measuring and examining it in price and risk in terms of what may happen. Are we talking about disruption of supply or a significant increase in price, as we saw recently with oil prices? Our work focused on disruption of gas supply to discover where the weak points were on the network. It pointed to the 50 kilometre single line stretch on the Scottish mainland from which the supply to both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland emanates. This is in addition to our indigenous supply from the Kinsale and Corrib gas fields.
In its research UCC has always been anxious to engage in the policy development process. Committee members can see on page 14 a list of the review groups and panels on which we are represented in the effort to move forward on renewable and sustainable energy sources during the past ten years, both in national fora and the European Union context.
The last slide shows a poster from our recently launched Master's programme. We are conscious that, as well as carrying out research, we should try to train engineers to deliver and respond positively in the workplace to the challenges facing us. We have a one-year taught Master's programme to equip engineers with some of the information techniques and skills associated with sustainable energy. I hope this brief presentation has provided a glimpse of the areas we cover and the breadth of what is involved.