Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 20 March 2007
98 Mr. Allen asked the Minister for Finance the forecasts for the increase in tax revenue for 2008 and 2009; the projections for employment growth, house price growth and the numbers of second-hand home sales underpinning the forecasts. [10193/07]
Amharc ar fhreagraThe Budget 2007 forecast increases in tax revenues for 2008 and 2009 are 7.3% and 6.9% respectively. Employment is projected to increase by 2.1% and 1.6% in 2008 and 2009 respectively. New house price increases are assumed to be modest in both 2008 and 2009.
There are no reliable macro economic indicators currently available which detail activity in the second-hand housing market, from which the bulk of residential property related Stamp duty receipts are derived. Accordingly, the forecast changes in the volume and price of new house activity are used as a general proxy for the change in the level and value of stamp duty liable transactions for second-hand houses. Added to this is an adjustment for the consequential movement into the higher stamp duty bands brought about by the projected increase in new house prices.
Clearly, such forecasts are susceptible to a far greater margin of error than other economic variables such as forecasts of employment, income and consumption.
