Tuesday, 31 January 2012

Ceisteanna (98)

Eric J. Byrne

Ceist:

138 Deputy Eric Byrne asked the Minister for Finance in respect of Ireland’s commitments under the EU-ECB-IMF troika deal, the methods that will be used to meet our targets under this deal in terms of our debt to GDP ratio for 2012, 2013 and 2014 in tabular form; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [5369/12]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa (Ceist ar Minister for Finance)

Table 2.1 on page 20 of the Medium-Term Fiscal Statement outlines the amount of consolidation required over the period2012-2015 to meet the targets agreed under the EU/IMF Programme—link: http://budget.gov.ie/budgets/2012/Documents/Medium%20Term%20Fiscal%20Statement%20November%202011.pdf

Technical General Government Deficit Projections and Amount of Consolidation Required to Achieve Targets

2012

2013

2014

2015

% of GDP

General Government Deficit Target — as set by ECOFIN Council

8.6

7.5

5.1

2.9

Projected General Government Deficit

8.6

7.5

5.0

2.9

€ billions

€ billions

€ billions

€ billions

Total Consolidation Amount

3.8

3.5

3.1

2.0

Expenditure

2.2

2.25

2.0

1.3

Current

1.45

1.70

1.9

1.3

Capital

0.75

0.55

0.1

0.0

Tax

1.6

1.25

1.1

0.7

New Measures

1.0

0.95

0.9

0.4

Carry Forward

0.6 *

0.30

0.2

0.3

* The Universal Social Charge is also expected to deliver an additional €0.4 billion in revenues in 2012. While this is not part of the €3.8 billion consolidation package, it is captured in the budgetary projections.

Source: Department of Finance and Department of Public Expenditure and Reform

Rounding may affect totals

There were minor revisions to this information in Budget 2012 contained on pages D.16-17 and more detailed information was provided on the composition of revenue measures for the period 2013-2015— link: http://budget.gov.ie/budgets/2012/Documents/Economic%20and%20Fiscal%20Outlook.pdf

Indicative Revenue Raising Measures 2013-2015

€million

2013

2014

2015

Total

c/f

New

c/f

New

c/f

New

Direct and Capital Taxes

71

415

195

300

130

330

1,441

Indirect Tax

149

420

65

100

20

100

854

Local Tax

125

440

120

685

Sub-Total

220

960

260

840

150

550

Total (inclusive of c/fwd)

1,180

1,100

700

2,980

Source: Department of Finance.

Rounding can affect totals.

As set out in the MTFS, revenue measures amounting to a cumulative €4.65 billion for the period 2012 to 2015 are envisaged. Taking account of the Budget 2012 measures Table 8 sets out the indicative path to achieve this overall total.

Revenue Consolidation Targets 2012-2015

€ billion

2012

2013

2014

2015

Total

MTFS Target

1.6

1.25

1.1

0.7

4.65

Post-Budget

1.7

1.2

1.1

0.7

4.65

Sources: Department of Finance.

Rounding can affect totals.

Taking into account the latest macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts as contained in Budget 2012, these consolidation measures would result in debt to GDP ratios for the period 2011-2015 as detailed in the table below. This information is also available in Annex II on page D.22 of Budget 2012— link: http://budget.gov.ie/budgets/2012/Documents/Economic%20and%20Fiscal%20Outlook.pdf

General Government Debt Developments 2011-2015

% of GDP

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Gross debt

107

115

119

118

115

Change in gross debt (=1+2+3)

14.8

7.3

4.5

-1.2

-3.3