Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 7 November 2017
55. Deputy Maurice Quinlivan asked the Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection to explain the reason the summer economic statement projects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.5% from 2019 to 2021; and if she has satisfied herself that having over 120,000 persons remain jobless over this period is a good Government ambition. [43033/17]
Amharc ar fhreagraMy question relates to the projected unemployment rate as outlined in the summer economic statement. Page 13 of the statement refers to unemployment rates being expected to fall to 5.5% by 2019 - something I welcome - and remaining at this level over the remainder of the forecast horizon, which is until at least 2021. Using the unemployment figures provided, that would equate to circa 120,000 defined as unemployed each year. Are these figures correct? Will the figures be revisited to ensure that more people are helped to get a job and get back into the workforce?
The projections for 2020-21 in the summer economic statement are not targets but forecasts. They emerge from the overall economic analysis. Any forecasts over the horizon are, by their nature, tentative and depend on the environment. In particular, the impact of Brexit has to be factored into those figures.
It is commonly accepted in a normal labour market that, as people move between jobs and new people are attracted into the labour market, full employment is probably the equivalent to an unemployment rate anywhere between 4% and 5%. This means in Ireland a large number of people will be on the live register at any given time. In a full employment situation, the experience of unemployment will be relatively short for most people. However, on average there is still churn of 100,000 people at any given time during a year, even at full employment. Such people may be between jobs for a number of weeks or months.
One thing has become obvious to me in recent months as I have travelled the country and visited organisations providing training or employment, including the likes of Tús, CE schemes or rural social scheme participants. A large number of people in Ireland are distant and removed from being able to get a job by next Monday. This is not a stereotypical view, which would be wrong. It is not as simple as saying that a given person is a baker but the job available is that of a shopkeeper and the person is not trained correctly. Some people genuinely have real difficulties and disadvantages that will not be fixed by being sent on an Excel training course. We need to recognise this and tailor some of our supports towards those who have real difficulties in accessing the workforce. We need to recognise this and stop referring to these people as long-term unemployed. We should work specifically with people who have extra disadvantage to help them to access the workforce on a concerted basis.
I thank the Minister for her response. Previously, I raised the same issue with the Minister for Finance, Deputy Paschal Donohoe, at the Committee on Budgetary Oversight. He seemed rather surprised by the fact that I had pointed out to him that the figure would stay the same over a number of years.
I appreciate there is a certain point which traditionally constitutes full employment. I agree with the Minister's point in that regard. However, I am concerned that many of the people affected are construction workers who are unable to re-enter the industry when they come back on stream. Others affected may be young people who graduated from school or college at precisely the wrong economic time. Such people are trapped in what we call long-term unemployment. This is reflected in the higher rate of youth unemployment and the fact that over half of those unemployed are categorised as long-term unemployed. These are the people to whom I was adverting. My concern is that they will be left behind if the projections indicate the same rate for four of five years. It is important to find new ways to get these people back into the workforce. Does the Minister have any specific initiatives aimed at the two particular groups – those in the youth unemployment and long-term unemployment categories?
I think I misunderstood Deputy Quinlivan. I am sorry if we were at cross purposes. That is not to say what I just said is not true, because it is true. Others specifically affected are those over 50 years of age. They do not all fall into the category of construction workers. I was at a jobs fair in Croke Park two weeks ago and I met a gorgeous man from Tallaght. He is an eminently qualified architect, but he cannot get work. He has done all the retraining required. He is a classic example of someone who is long-term unemployed and on the register but he is ready for work. It is simply that the right work is not available for him today.
Two schemes are going to start in the new year. One is specifically for those under 25 years of age and the other is specifically for those over 50 years of age. I am hoping to work with business and industry to incentivise them to take on people from the live register who are in the over-50s category and keep them for 12 months and then to keep them thereafter. The idea is to recognise the skills, talent, confidence and life experience they have.
It is equally important to recognise the stubborn number of under 25s affected. It is not an issue for our graduates anymore, thankfully, because of the economy and the recovery. However, others in the under-25s category have never worked or trained. We are going to launch a scheme, probably at the end of quarter 1 or quarter 2 next year, aimed specifically at working on a voluntary basis with people under 25 years of age who want to be challenged and who have ambition. The idea is to provide them with life skills and lifelong learning to get into work or some sort of employment opportunities.
I am interested in finding out more details of the two schemes mentioned by the Minister to target the over 55s and the under 25s.
My constituency is Limerick City. While there has been a recovery there without a doubt and a good number of job announcements in the past year or two, we still have a major problem. A total of 18 of the unemployment black-spots are in the city, which is the highest concentration throughout the country by a mile. I am keen to know the target. I raised this with the Minister responsible previously, but the portfolio has transferred to the Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection. This is my first opportunity to raise it with Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection. I am keen to know how the Minister will reduce the number of black spots of unemployment, especially in Limerick, which has eight of the top ten. Will the Minister outline what steps are being taken to ensure we will not be in the same situation?
I would rather have this conversation with Deputy Quinlivan in more detail. We are planning an analysis of the over 50s and the under 25s on the live register in order that we can specifically go out to industry in areas with large numbers in those categories. I do not believe it is as simple as believing that everyone who is over 50 lives in Limerick. Anyway, these two schemes will be rolled out nationally. Where there are larger cohorts of under 25s or over 50s I will go to particular industries in that area.
There are particular black spots. The Deputy referred to Limerick, but there are a number of others, including in Waterford and County Offaly. We will propose the establishment of task forces. I would like to have a conversation with the joint committee to arrive at a broader view on what does and does not work before we invest resources in these black spots. I understand I will appear before the joint committee in the next couple of weeks.
