As the Deputy will be aware, the major study examining the Strategic Implications Arising for Ireland from Changing EU-UK Trading Relations will provide an evidence base on key trade and investment questions to inform Ireland’s position as part of the wider negotiation on the UK’s future relationship with the EU. It will also inform domestic policy responses and measures necessary to mitigate risks and maximise opportunities arising as a result of Brexit. Using a computable general equilibrium model to quantify new barriers to trade in goods and services which might emerge as a result of Brexit, the study:
- Quantifies impact of six possible Brexit scenarios on trade and investment – the impact of these scenarios on metrics such as GDP and exports is considered, and analysis of both short and long term impacts is examined; and
- Provides analysis of the likely impact of Brexit on key sectors.
The study is in the final stages of completion and my intention is to present the report to Cabinet in mid-February with a view to publishing it shortly thereafter.