Thursday, 10 May 2018

Ceisteanna (116)

Jonathan O'Brien

Ceist:

116. Deputy Jonathan O'Brien asked the Minister for Education and Skills the projected increase or demand for workers and employees due to demographic changes for the years 2018 to 2028. [20700/18]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa (Ceist ar Education)

Demographic trends will have an impact across all areas of the education and training system, including special needs provision, administrative support and higher education. The IGEES paper "Budgetary Impact of Changing Demographics 2017 - 2027" outlines projected public expenditure implications across the education and training sector.  The paper is available online at: http://igees.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Demographic-Paper-Final-101016.pdf

With respect to the staffing implications of changing demographics in the education and training sector, information is available in respect of mainstream teacher requirements.  These are contained in the Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service's (IGEES) 2015 staff paper entitled "Primary and Second Level Education: 2016-2033 Expenditure Implications of Demographic Change". The paper is available online at:  http://igees.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/IGEES-Paper-Expenditure-Implications-of-Demographic-Change-in-Primary-and-Second-Level.pdf

The paper outlines various projections for the numbers of teachers required in different scenarios depending on assumptions about fertility and migration. Broadly speaking, the projections assume decreases in the number of primary teachers required after 2018 (which represents peak enrolment in the primary system), and increases in post-primary teacher requirements up to 2025 (the peak year for post-primary enrolment) with an annual decline thereafter.  

As the paper notes, however, it does not take into account regional or local variations in population growth and decline which will have an impact on enrolment and teacher demand at school level, notwithstanding national-level trends. Furthermore, it does not take into account issues such as redeployment which will have an impact on the actual net growth or decline each year. Not does it include staffing implications for schools outside of mainstream teachers (e.g. special needs, administrative support etc.).