Thursday, 10 May 2018

Ceisteanna (93)

Jonathan O'Brien

Ceist:

93. Deputy Jonathan O'Brien asked the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform the budgetary projection within his Department due to demographic change for the years 2018 to 2028. [20707/18]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa (Ceist ar Public)

The Expenditure Report 2018 set out costs of €0.4 billion for 2019 and 2020 in relation to demographics net of estimated savings of €50 million in Live Register related expenditure arising from continued improvement in employment. These costs relating to demographic developments arise in the Departments of Health, Employment Affairs and Social Protection, and Education and Skills. The savings currently projected arising from expected improvements in the Live Register will be re-estimated during the Budget Estimates process taking account of the employment situation and projections in relation to unemployment at that time. 

The amounts included in respect of demographic cost pressures are informed by the IGEES staff paper ‘Budgetary Impact of Changing Demographics 2017 – 2027’ published in September, 2016. This paper provides an estimate of the demographic cost pressures from 2017 to 2027 across the three main areas of current expenditure; Social Protection, Health and Education. Based on the analysis in the paper, in the short term, annual demographic cost pressures are expected to remain relatively static out to 2020, at an average of €435 million per annum. Taking a longer term view, following an anticipated reduction in costs in 2021-2022, due to changes to the retirement age, the average cost of demographic pressures from 2023 – 2027 is estimated at €401 million. However, it should be noted that longer term projections are inherently uncertain and will be subject to re-estimation to take account of changes in costs and population trends.