Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 18 December 2018
56. Deputy John Curran asked the Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment the range in which he expects Ireland to miss its 2020 greenhouse gas emission targets; the sectoral breakdown of these targets; the estimated range of fines Ireland is likely to face for failing to meet targets; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [53204/18]
Amharc ar fhreagraThe Minister will be aware that Ireland will miss its 2020 emissions targets by a significant amount. Can he give a sectoral breakdown of where he expects the targets to be missed by 2020 and the associated costs to the Exchequer as a result of our failing to reach them?
Under the 2009 effort sharing decision which put in place binding annual emissions targets for each year between 2013 and 2020 for sectors outside the EU emissions trading system, Ireland must achieve reductions of 20% relative to 2005 levels of emissions. The actual trends show that under the influence of the economic crash, Irish emissions were below target ceilings in the years 2013 to 2015, inclusive. However, as recovery took hold, it became clear that we had not broken the link between economic recovery and emissions which rose significantly above the target ceiling in 2017. The latest projections, published in May by the EPA, indicate that emissions from those sectors of the economy covered by the effort sharing decision could be on aggregate be 17 million tonnes, or 5%, above the cumulative target for the period. However, more worryingly, the 2020 levels are projected to be only between 0% and 1% below 2005 levels by 2020. This puts us in a very bad starting position to meet our 2030 targets.
The EU system does not fix separate targets for different sectors. The effort sharing decision allows member states to meet their targets using unused emissions allowances from earlier years, or through purchasing allowances from other member states or on international markets. Ireland has certain accumulated credits already acquired. However, I am advised that Ireland will need to purchase allowances to meet projected shortfalls in 2019 and 2020. My Department estimates the costs of this requirement to be in the region of €6 million to €13 million, depending on the price and final quantity of allowances required.
The recently agreed effort sharing regulation sets out binding annual emission targets for EU member states in the period 2021 to 2030, inclusive.
Ireland's target for 2030 is to achieve a 30% reduction in emissions relative to 2005. I have recently secured Government approval to prepare an all-of-Government plan which will set out the actions to be taken to make Ireland a leader in responding to climate change and to set out how Ireland will meet its targets for the period to 2030 at the very least.
I thank the Minister for his response and I wish him well in his position. It is a critical role. Young people are very cognisant of the challenges ahead of us and they are up for the type of change that is necessary. I asked the actual cost because it is important to realise that if we do not address this, a significant cost to the Exchequer will arise and, as years pass, it will grow. As the Minister rightly said, we have credits from the recession years. That has brought us up to 2017 or thereabouts, and we will pay as we go forward from there.
It is critically important that the key elements for which the Government has responsibility are implemented. The Minister spoke about microgeneration and solar power. One advance in renewable energy that has not happened is a growth in the significance of commercial solar power. In 2015, 0.01% of electricity was generated from solar power. That figure has only grown to 0.04%. It is a tiny proportion of the whole. This is mostly because the Government has failed to produce guidelines around solar power. It has come up time and again. There is plan after plan, and planning application after planning application is granted, but we have not seen commercial solar power connected to the grid as a deliverable source of renewable energy as it should be.
The Deputy has raised a couple of points. He is absolutely right. The net figure was 17 million tonnes. That has been priced. We had credits already but we have also acquired credits. What we are going out into the market with now is not even 17 million tonnes' worth. The gap will get bigger in the future.
The Deputy is right about commercial solar power. It is not solely about the planning guidelines. Commercial solar power is more expensive. It has not won out at auctions or successfully competed for any Renewable Energy Feed In Tariff, REFIT, schemes. As Deputy Canney was describing, one would expect offshore or onshore wind again to dominate the next auctions in 2019. However, we may see the start of some inroads made by solar power. That is important. It is still more expensive, but those costs are coming down very dramatically.
As Deputy Deering was saying, in combination with it becoming more cost-effective, we need to make sure that the guidelines are fair. I know there has been an issue with the Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government saying that no guidelines are needed as the guidelines are already there. As part of this process I will have a conversation with the Minister, Deputy Eoghan Murphy, to see if we need to issue some sort of clarification so that decisions can be taken where appropriate. There are guidelines - it is not true to say that there are not - but some people seem to be waiting for further guidelines to be issued.
I do not want to devote my whole contribution to solar power, but I must make the point that something is wrong whether guidelines are required or not. We do not have the output that we should have. It is fine to say that we will have further wind power and so forth. To achieve reliability and continuity, we need a mix of renewables rather than being overly dependent on one source or another.
The other comment I want to make concerns transport. It is interesting to note that it was only last week that the low-emission bus trial began in Dublin. The Government had been talking about that for ages. The Minister has to take responsibility across all the Departments in Government, not just his own. Funds and programmes have been made available but the actual implementation is very slow. I have been asking the Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport about low-emission buses for Dublin for a considerable time. This does not account for a huge output but it leads by example. It sets a precedent for transport infrastructure for Dublin in the future. The Government has a key role to play in that. There is a carbon reduction programme in the Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport with about €5 million available to it. I understand that the vast bulk of that money has not even been used this year.
These are the challenges facing the Minister. We can have scheme after scheme and programme after programme, but if the implementation is not there, we will not make progress. To return to the point I made at the beginning, while our fines are relatively low, the annual costs of failing to meet those targets will grow if we continue on the path we are on because of the credits carried forward from the recession.
I do not want any misunderstanding. To be clear, I am not taking responsibility for delivery across all Departments. I have been given the job of developing a plan. In this case it will be about holding other Departments to account. It will be as much the Taoiseach's responsibility as my own to oversee delivery. I cannot go to every Department and tell them what to do.
The Deputy is absolutely right. We need to create a framework in which we can start to address this collectively. Carbon must be factored into every decision we take. It was promising to hear the Secretary General of the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform state that the price of carbon in public spending decisions ought to be €100 per tonne for 2030 and €265 per tonne for 2050. That Department is beginning to think in terms of a rapid ramping up of the cost of carbon-intensive activities. It is important that this message gets through to decision-makers, whether it pertains to low-emission vehicles, diesel, buses or whatever. My job is to make sure that agenda is brought forward.
