For the years 2020 to 2023, as part of Budget 2019, my Department has forecasted contributions of €2.9bn, €3.1bn, €3.2bn and €3.4bn respectively. Further to this, for the year 2024, my Department has forecasted a contribution of €3.5bn. As part of the Stability Programme Update, these forecasts will be updated in the coming weeks. However, it is worth noting that these forecasts are contingent on a number of variables, including updated GNI forecasts, the size of the overall EU budget for the year and other EU budget operational developments. As a result, all forecasts will be monitored and updated on an ongoing basis.
It should be noted that forecasts for the years 2021 onwards are based on the Commission’s proposal for the next MFF which allows for Brexit with Own Resources based on the remaining 27 Member States only. Under the Withdrawal Agreement between the EU and UK, the UK had agreed to continue to pay into the EU budget for the remaining years of the current MFF, as if it was still a member. If adopted this would result in no additional impact on Ireland’s contributions or receipts up to the end of the current MFF in 2020.