Under Article 15 of Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action, Member States are required to prepare, by 1 January 2020, a Long-Term Climate Strategy. This strategy is to have a perspective of at least 30 years and shall include emission reduction pathways in individual sectors. Action 1 under the Climate Action Plan, which I published in June of this year, commits to evaluating in detail the changes required to adopt a more ambitious commitment of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, as part of finalising Ireland’s long-term climate strategy by the end of 2019 as per the advice of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the recommendation of the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Climate Action.
Least cost pathways analysis for Ireland’s energy system, undertaken in 2017 to inform the development of the National Mitigation Plan, provided details on the carbon emissions trajectory in 2050 under both a business as usual emissions scenario and under a scenario where carbon emissions are constrained to at least 80% below 1990 levels in 2050, consistent with Ireland's existing national policy position for 2050, and in the context of achieving Ireland’s non-ETS targets for 2030. The report, entitled ‘Energy Modelling to Inform the National Mitigation Plan,’ is available on my Department’s website at the following link: https://dccae.gov.ie/en-ie/climate-action/topics/national-mitigation-plan/Pages/default.aspx
This report concludes that major individual sectors achieve decarbonisation of between 72% and 89% relative to 1990 by 2050. While the focus of this report was on emissions scenarios rather than energy demand, it is anticipated that updated analysis for Ireland’s energy system in 2050, to be prepared to inform the preparation of the Long Term Strategy, will also seek to consider the implications for Ireland’s final energy use requirements in 2050.