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Gnáthamharc

Tuesday, 3 Dec 2019

Written Answers Nos. 116-135

Departmental Reports

Ceisteanna (116)

Shane Cassells

Ceist:

116. Deputy Shane Cassells asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade the number of external consultant reports commissioned by his Department in each year from March 2011 to 2018 and to date in 2019; the cost of each report; the company involved; and the title and publication date by report in tabular form. [49905/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade is responsible for two votes - Vote 28 (Foreign Affairs and Trade) and Vote 27 (International Cooperation).

The Department commissions external expertise where highly specialised skills are not available internally and in particular where ongoing independent evaluation of programmes and projects is required. During the course of their engagement these consultants and experts may prepare reports and other documentation for the Department.

In-depth analysis of issues by external experts has informed, and continues to inform, the Department’s policies, allowing for a more targeted use of resources and greater accountability in the allocation of budgets.

These services are procured by open competitive tendering processes in accordance with EU and national rules and comply with the overall value for money objectives.

A small number of consultancies are engaged directly by our Missions abroad from time to time and in some instances they prepare technical reports relating to Ireland’s overseas development aid programme.

The following reports were commissioned by my Department from 2011 and to date in 2019 and are contained in the following link.

Year

*Certain reports commissioned by the Department are for internal management usage and not for publication. However, many Departmental reports are published on www.irishaid.ie and www.dfa.ie

Middle East Peace Process

Ceisteanna (117)

Thomas P. Broughan

Ceist:

117. Deputy Thomas P. Broughan asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade the way in which Ireland is actively working towards bringing about a two-state future for Israel and Palestine further to his statement on Israeli settlements policy of 20 November 2019; if there are further developments on foot of earlier meetings he has held on the peace process for Israel and Palestine; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [50043/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa

I have given a high priority to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict over the last two years, and have worked consistently to maintain an international focus on the issue, and support for the two state solution.

I regularly discuss this situation with my counterparts in the EU and the region, and I have remained engaged with the small group of participants who gathered in Dublin in February of this year, to discuss the Middle East Peace Process, and how best to encourage a move towards a just and durable peace.

The Israel-Palestine conflict also featured in several of my discussions and meetings during the High-Level Week of the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September, including in my meeting the Secretary General of the League of Arab States. I also met with senior White House advisor Jared Kushner to discuss the Middle East Peace Process and the situation in the region. In that meeting I clearly conveyed Ireland's encouragement for any efforts that can bring genuine progress, while also making clear Ireland's support for the long-agreed parameters, which any new Middle East peace initiative would need to include, in order to have a realistic prospect of being acceptable to both parties. I also communicated Ireland’s well known views on settlements. All settlement activity is illegal under international law, and that view represents the settled international consensus. I have been unequivocal about this in public statements whenever the question of settlements has arisen.

Ireland continues to support action on the ground by providing humanitarian assistance and working on specific projects to improve the situation of Palestinians, particularly in Gaza. Ireland has so far provided €5 million to UNRWA in 2019, with additional funding of €2 million in the process of being disbursed. I have also initiated an Irish-funded solar power project in Gaza, which will help to alleviate the critical shortage of power in Gaza. The power generated will be used to improve water quality in the area.

However, funding alone cannot solve the conflict. I am committed to do everything I can to make a positive contribution to support credible efforts to resume meaningful negotiations and to advance the Middle East Peace Process. In December 2018, Ireland proposed a Resolution at the UN General Assembly on a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in the Middle East. This Resolution, which reaffirmed the long-standing and broadly agreed parameters for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, was adopted by an overwhelming majority, including common EU support.

The international environment is important, but the parties themselves are key to this process, and I think it is important to continue to engage with both, in order to explore potential for future progress, even when the situation is very difficult. From 2-4 December, I will visit Israel and Palestine for the fourth time in my current role. I will meet with senior Israeli and Palestinian leaders to discuss the current situation, and will again highlight Ireland's views on settlements and a number of other issues. I am also planning to visit Gaza and meet with UNRWA and other UN officials, as well as visiting the site of the solar project which Ireland is funding.

I will continue to ensure that the Middle East Peace Process remains high on the international agenda.

Legislative Measures

Ceisteanna (118)

Barry Cowen

Ceist:

118. Deputy Barry Cowen asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade the number of Bills sponsored by his Department that have been enacted since November 2013, in tabular form. [50320/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa

Three items of legislation sponsored by my Department have been enacted since November 2013. These items are set out in the following table.

Name of Act

Year Enacted

Diplomatic Relations (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act

2017

Protection of Cultural Property in the event of Armed Conflict (Hague Convention) Act

2017

The Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (Consequential Provisions) Act 2019 - 'The Brexit Omnibus Act'.

2019

Colombian Peace Process

Ceisteanna (119)

Éamon Ó Cuív

Ceist:

119. Deputy Éamon Ó Cuív asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade if Ireland has raised concerns with the Colombian authorities directly or at the UN to attacks that are being described as indigenous genocide by reputable persons; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [50409/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa

Worrying levels of violence and intimidation exist in Colombia, and in the wider Latin America region, against indigenous and other human rights defenders. I am aware of the recent events in Cauca Province to which the Deputy refers, which unfortunately act as a reminder of the challenges that Colombia is facing as it implements the peace agreement. Officials at my Department in Dublin and at our new Embassy in Bogotá monitor this important issue closely and I have wholeheartedly condemned on numerous occasions any use of threats, intimidation or violence against those working to defend human rights and fundamental freedoms.

The absence of the State in former conflict areas, including in the Cauca Province, and the demobilisation of the FARC, has resulted in other armed groups gaining control of these areas, primarily to control the illegal economy. This has implications for the security of the local communities, particularly for human rights defenders and community leaders, as witnessed in Cauca.

Our new resident Embassy in Bogotá has been engaging with civil society, EU and multilateral partners on the human rights situation in the country, since it opened at the beginning of the year. We also regularly raise this issue in our exchanges with the Colombian Government, as well as in the Human Rights Council, most recently during the 30th session of the Universal Periodic Review. During this review we highlighted existing issues in Colombia and made a number of recommendations, including that Colombia takes all necessary measures in order to protect human rights defenders against threats and attacks and to ensure that perpetrators are brought to justice.

Earlier this year, former Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore in his position as EU Special Envoy to the Colombian peace process, a role in which he is supported by my Department, led the 11th session of the EU-Colombia Human Rights Dialogue. Particular reference was made to the disproportionately high level of violence against indigenous leaders, and the need for collective protection measures.

Ireland supports the Colombian Government’s full implementation of the peace agreement. The peace process is fundamental to improving the human rights situation in the country and Ireland has contributed over €14 million in support of this since 2007, mainly channelled through the United Nations, and Colombian and international NGOs focusing on human rights, conflict prevention, peace-building and supporting livelihoods for rural populations.

The Taoiseach underlined Ireland's continuing support for the Colombian peace process in his meeting with President Duque en marge of the UN General Assembly in New York in September 2018. I reiterated this support when I met Foreign Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo during his visit to Dublin in September this year. We also discussed human rights during this meeting.

As well as financial support, Ireland has also provided ongoing support in the form of lesson-sharing based on our own experience of peacebuilding and reconciliation on the island of Ireland. We also participate in the EU’s ongoing campaign to recognise and champion the work of human rights defenders in the country.

Officials in my Department in Dublin and at our Embassy in Bogotá will continue to monitor the situation regarding indigenous and social leaders, and other human rights defenders, in Cauca and across Colombia, as Ireland continues to support Colombia in its transition to a stable, peaceful, post-conflict society.

Pensions Reform

Ceisteanna (120)

Michael McGrath

Ceist:

120. Deputy Michael McGrath asked the Minister for Finance his plans to change the age threshold of 75 years to approved minimum retirement funds; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [49741/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa

The Deputy may be aware that the Government published A Roadmap for Pensions Reform 2018 – 2023 in February 2018, which contains in Strand 3, “Improving Governance and Regulation”, a plan for a broad review of the utilisation and regulation of the ARF option. This review has been conducted by the Interdepartmental Pensions Reform and Taxation Group (IDPRTG), which is chaired by the Department of Finance and includes members from the Departments of Public Expenditure and Reform (DPER); Employment Affairs and Social Protection (DEASP); the Revenue Commissioners and the Pensions Authority.

The IDPRTG has prepared a report on a number of actions within the Roadmap, including a review of the ARF option, representing a significant piece of work in this broad policy area. This report has very recently been submitted to me. Given this is a complex and detailed piece of work, I intend to carefully consider its contents before taking any decisions, including around publication of the report.

Therefore, I wish to reserve comment, including on the matter referred to by the Deputy, until I have had time to consider these issues.

Central Bank of Ireland Supervision

Ceisteanna (121)

Darragh O'Brien

Ceist:

121. Deputy Darragh O'Brien asked the Minister for Finance the status of plans to request the Central Bank to conduct an assessment of existing sustainable restructuring solutions across all lenders and non-bank entities operating here. [50056/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa

Within the remit of the Central Bank of Ireland’s (the Central Bank) responsibilities for safeguarding stability and protecting consumers, its approach to mortgage arrears resolution is focused on ensuring the fair treatment of borrowers through a strong consumer protection framework and ensuring that regulated entities have appropriate arrears resolution strategies and operations in place.

The Code of Conduct on Mortgage Arrears (CCMA) is a statutory code that must be complied with by relevant regulated entities as a matter of law. The CCMA provides a strong consumer protection framework, aimed specifically at the process to be followed by relevant firms, to ensure borrowers in arrears or pre-arrears in respect of a mortgage loan secured on a primary residence are treated in a timely, transparent and fair manner.

Banks, retail credit firms and credit servicing firms are all required to comply with the CCMA. The overriding objective of the CCMA is to ensure the fair and transparent treatment of consumers in mortgage arrears or pre-arrears, and that due regard is had to the fact that each case of mortgage arrears is unique and needs to be considered on its own merits.

The CCMA recognises that it is in the interests of borrowers and regulated firms to address financial difficulties as speedily, effectively and sympathetically as circumstances allow. It sets out the Mortgage Arrears Resolution Process (MARP), a four-step process that regulated entities must follow:

Step 1: Communicate with borrower;

Step 2: Gather financial information;

Step 3: Assess the borrower’s circumstances; and

Step 4: Propose a resolution

The arrears handling provisions in Chapter 8 of the Consumer Protection Code (the Code) apply when the loan is not a mortgage loan to which the CCMA applies (i.e. where the property is not the borrower's primary residence). Amongst other protections, the Code requires that where an account is in arrears, a regulated entity must seek to agree an approach that will assist the personal consumer in resolving the arrears.

Most loan agreements include a clause that allows the original lender to sell the loan on to another firm. When a loan is sold, the relevant Irish and EU consumer protections continue to apply. Under the Consumer Protection (Regulation of Credit Servicing Firms) Act 2018, which came into effect on 21 January 2019, if a loan is transferred, the holder of the legal title to the credit must now be authorised by the Central Bank as a credit servicing firm. Such credit servicing firms must act in accordance with Irish financial services law that applies to ‘regulated financial service providers’. This ensures that consumers, whose loans are sold to another firm, maintain the same regulatory protections that they had prior to the sale, including under the various statutory Codes of Conduct issued by the Central Bank, such as the Code and the CCMA.

The Central Bank carries out its supervision of regulated entities, including banks, retail credit and credit servicing firms in a number of ways, which includes both desk based and on-site reviews of various activities. In March 2018, I asked the Central Bank to review the CCMA to ensure it remains as effective as possible in the context of the sale of loans by regulated lenders. In November 2018, the Central Bank published a report on this matter.

Based on that point in time exercise, the Central Bank’s review concluded that the CCMA is effective and working as intended in the context of the sale of loans, for borrowers who engage with the process. There was no evidence that credit servicing firms do not engage with borrowers in arrears. When a loan is sold by a bank, any existing Alternative Repayment Arrangements (ARAs) in place with a borrower under the CCMA continue to be honoured until the agreed term of the ARA ends. There was no evidence that borrowers, whose circumstances have not changed, were being moved off existing ARAs by credit servicing firms during the term of the ARA. There was no material difference in the level of repossessions by the previously unregulated loan owners compared to banks.

As a follow-up action to the Report on the CCMA, the Central Bank wrote to banks, retail credit firms and credit servicing firms in August 2019 to set out its expectations of all firms in respect of loan sales and they specifically refer to the situation where a cooperating borrower is complying with the terms of an ARA and their loan is sold, that the new regulated entity cannot unilaterally change the ARA.

Institutions were required to respond to the Central Bank by 18 October 2019 confirming that the board of the firm had considered the contents of the letter and provided the assurances sought.

As a result of the above information, I do not believe that it is necessary at this point in time to ask the Central Bank to conduct an assessment of existing sustainable restructuring solutions across all lenders and non-bank entities operating here.

Vehicle Registration

Ceisteanna (122)

Michael McGrath

Ceist:

122. Deputy Michael McGrath asked the Minister for Finance if he will assist a person (details supplied) in County Cork to resolve a VRT issue that has arisen concerning an imported vehicle; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [49739/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa

To register an imported used car, a person must produce the ‘foreign registration certificate’ or ‘certificate of de-registration’ as issued by the relevant registration authority in the ‘exporting’ State. The procedures for registering an imported used car and the documents required are clearly set out on Revenue’s website at www.revenue.ie/en/importing-vehicles-duty-free-allowances/guide-to-vrt/vehicle-registration-tax/procedure-at-the-ncts-centre.aspx and the NCTS website at www.ncts.ie/1155, which may be of interest to the Deputy.

Revenue has advised me that on learning of the person’s difficulties invited him to attend a meeting at its Cork office to discuss the matter. This meeting has since taken place and the matter is now fully resolved.

Tax Data

Ceisteanna (123)

Pearse Doherty

Ceist:

123. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance ·the number of persons availing of flat-rate expenses disaggregated by salary bands and profession in each of the years 2014 to 2018. [49816/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa

I am advised by Revenue that prior to 2018, tax returns did not identify Flat Rate Expenses (FREs) separately from other expense items. Therefore, the detailed breakdown of claimants sought by the Deputy is not available at this time. For 2017 the estimated total number of taxpayer units who availed of FRE allowances was 606,570 with gross claims of €163 million equating to a tax cost of some €48 million.

The 2018 Income Tax returns have specific questions on FREs that will allow Revenue to segregate them from other expenses claimed. Returns for 2018 are being filed and processed at present and statistics are expected to be available in mid-2020.

Exchequer Revenue

Ceisteanna (124)

Pearse Doherty

Ceist:

124. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance ·the unallocated revenue available in each of the years 2020 to 2025; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [49817/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa

My Department's latest forecasts, contained in Budget 2020 Economic & Fiscal Outlook, project Exchequer revenue and expenditure over the years 2020 to 2024 inclusive.

Budget 2020 was underpinned by the assumption of a disorderly Brexit. As such, due to the operation of automatic stabilisers, the impact of Brexit contingency expenditure and other factors, the Exchequer is projected to operate deficits in the years 2020 to 2024. Under such circumstances, no unallocated revenue is currently anticipated over the period. I attach a table contained in the following link detailing the Exchequer balance over the current forecast horizon.

Exchequer

Tax Code

Ceisteanna (125)

Frank O'Rourke

Ceist:

125. Deputy Frank O'Rourke asked the Minister for Finance his views on the proposal by the Revenue Commissioners to rescind the flat-rate tax expense for various categories of workers, in particular for nursing staff in receipt of the FRE, in view of the fact that their uniform is a requirement; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [49847/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa

Over the past 18 months, Revenue has been conducting a comprehensive review of the administratively based Flat Rate Expenses (FRE) regime. Revenue has advised me that the purpose of the FRE review, which involved engagement with relevant representative bodies, is to ensure that the expenses granted to each employment category remain justified and appropriate to modern day employments and work practices. Each category of FRE allowance is being examined separately in the light of the legislative requirements of section 114 of the Taxes Consolidation Act (TCA) 1997, which provides that expenses are tax deductible only if they are wholly, exclusively and necessarily incurred by the employee in the performance of the duties of his or her employment and are not reimbursed by the employer.

Revenue has advised me that its FRE review is ongoing but is now nearing conclusion.

As I informed the House recently during the Report Stage debate on the Finance Bill, while I am aware of the effect that changes to the FRE regime will have on those who are impacted by the changes, I also need to respect the independence of Revenue.

Having regard to the fact that we are coming closer to the date on which any changes on foot of the review are due to be implemented, I have, as I committed previously to do, written to Revenue seeking a factual update on the review. Once this process of engagement with Revenue has been completed, I will be able to comment further on the matter and, conscious of the timeline involved, I anticipate that I will be able to do so very shortly.

Financial Services Regulation

Ceisteanna (126)

Barry Cowen

Ceist:

126. Deputy Barry Cowen asked the Minister for Finance if the advisers of a company (details supplied) or companies owned by the company are registered with the Central Bank as a regulated credit firm or credit servicing firm. [49890/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa

I am advised by the Central Bank that OHA (UK) LLP is an Alternative Investment Fund Manager authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK providing services & activities in Ireland on a cross-border basis in accordance with the provisions of the European Union (Alternative Investment Fund Managers) Regulations 2013.

As an authorised Alternative Investment Fund Manager, OHA (UK) LLP will be subject to obligations in the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive and to certain obligations arising under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive.

The list of firms regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland is available on the Central Bank website at the link below:

http://registers.centralbank.ie/

Departmental Reports

Ceisteanna (127)

Shane Cassells

Ceist:

127. Deputy Shane Cassells asked the Minister for Finance the number of external consultant reports commissioned by his Department in each year from March 2011 to 2018 and to date in 2019; the cost of each report; the company involved; and the title and publication date by report in tabular form. [49904/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa

The Deputy will find the information requested in relation to external consultant reports commissioned by my Department in each of the years March 2011 to 2018 and to date in 2019 in the table attached in the following link.

Response

VAT Payments

Ceisteanna (128, 129, 130, 145)

Anne Rabbitte

Ceist:

128. Deputy Anne Rabbitte asked the Minister for Finance if a consultative forum comprising representatives from the retail, tourism and tax refund sectors together with officials from the Revenue Commissioners, An Garda Síochána and his Department will be established to review the impact of proposed changes to the retail export scheme and to explore alternatives to the introduction of a €175 VAT refund threshold. [50039/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Anne Rabbitte

Ceist:

129. Deputy Anne Rabbitte asked the Minister for Finance if he has received communications from the UK Government on the further application by the UK of the retail export scheme; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [50040/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Anne Rabbitte

Ceist:

130. Deputy Anne Rabbitte asked the Minister for Finance if his attention has been drawn to the verification process that has been established across the retail industry here to prevent VAT registered businesses from falsely availing of tax-free shopping in the event the UK applies both the VAT retail export and duty free schemes; and if he has held meetings with the tax back and retail sectors to ensure the misuse of the scheme is minimised. [50041/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Robert Troy

Ceist:

145. Deputy Robert Troy asked the Minister for Finance his views on concerns raised with regard to proposed changes to the retail export scheme as per correspondence (details supplied); and if he is considering establishing a consultative forum involving representatives from the various bodies suggested. [50385/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa

I propose to take Questions Nos. 128 to 130, inclusive, and 145 together.

I have previously outlined the rationale for the changes I have made to the VAT Retail Export Scheme in the Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (Consequential Provisions) Act 2019 (the Brexit Act). This scheme enables visitors that are resident outside the EU to benefit from VAT relief on goods purchased in Ireland and subsequently taken outside of the EU. If the scheme applies to UK visitors post-Brexit and the UK operates a similar scheme for EU visitors, Irish consumers will be able to buy goods VAT free in the UK and UK visitors will be able to buy goods VAT free in Ireland. This could give rise to a considerable displacement of consumer purchases in both directions, resulting in significant VAT revenue losses; purchases by UK visitors in Ireland would not produce any VAT revenues and collecting VAT on goods in excess of personal importation allowances (if any) brought into Ireland by consumers would be extremely difficult. Due to the volume of passenger movements between the UK and Ireland, the volume of refund applications is likely to significantly increase which simultaneously heightens the risk of abuse of the Retail Export Scheme post Brexit.

I have also advised that in the event that the UK either restrict the scheme or do not apply it to Irish passenger traffic, Ireland will take the precautionary measures in the form of commencing the sections in the Brexit Act, so to minimise the potential for abuse of the scheme and to reduce the possibility of diversion in retail consumption from Ireland to the UK, post Brexit.

The amended legislation contained in the Brexit Act provides that the value of qualifying goods must exceed €175 in order to be eligible for a refund under the scheme. This change is fully compatible with EU law and is in line with the EU VAT Directive. The monetary limit will apply in respect of all third country travellers who apply for a refund under the scheme, post commencement of the section of the Act. I have also introduced a new requirement of proof of importation of the goods into the UK and the associated proof of payment, where applicable, of relevant UK VAT and duties, for the goods purchased under the scheme in order to qualify for a refund.

The UK government has indicated that it does not intend to apply a VAT Retail Export Scheme to EU Member States post Brexit and I have had no further communication from them on this. Should the UK apply a full Retail Export Scheme post Brexit, Ireland will not commence the precautionary legislation requiring proof of importation and the associated proof of payment and a non-restricted VAT Retail Export Scheme will therefore operate between Ireland and the UK. The Government’s policy is to reciprocate any arrangements made by the UK, subject to EU law, and any legislative changes that may be made will of course be kept under review by Revenue.

Exchequer Returns

Ceisteanna (131, 132, 134, 135)

Pearse Doherty

Ceist:

131. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the projected tax revenue in each of the years 2020 to 2025 in the event of an orderly Brexit by tax category, that is, income, VAT and so on as opposed to a disorderly Brexit as outlined in the economic and fiscal outlook in Budget 2020 in tabular form. [50097/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Pearse Doherty

Ceist:

132. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the projected expenditure in each of the years 2020 to 2025 in the event of an orderly Brexit by expenditure category, that is, compensation of employees, interest expenditure and so on as opposed to a disorderly Brexit as outlined in the economic and fiscal outlook in Budget 2020 in tabular form. [50098/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Pearse Doherty

Ceist:

134. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the resources available in the event of an orderly Brexit after projected and pre-committed expenditure in each of the years 2020 to 2025 in order to reach a GGB as a percentage of GDP by percentage (details supplied) in tabular form. [50103/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Pearse Doherty

Ceist:

135. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the resources available in the event of an orderly Brexit after projected and pre-committed expenditure in each of the years 2020 to 2025 in order to reach a structural balance of -0.5 in tabular form. [50104/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa

I propose to take Questions Nos. 131, 132, 134 and 135 together.

The Government decided in September that Budget 2020 would be based on the assumption of a disorderly Brexit at end-October. Given the information available at the time this was the safest and most appropriate option to take. Since I published Budget 2020, the risk of the UK departing the EU this year without a deal has been averted. However, the ultimate outcome is still highly uncertain and a disorderly Brexit in 2020 while less likely, is still possible.

Should the UK leave the EU on an orderly basis, Ireland’s fiscal position, inter alia, would likely improve with both increased revenues and lower expenditure than forecast at Budget 2020. This would have a positive effect on both the General Government Balance and the Structural Balance. The fiscal forecast published with the Summer Economic Statement (SES) in June is instructive as to the fiscal situation under an orderly scenario.

Once clarity is achieved in relation to Brexit and full year Exchequer returns are available, the Department of Finance will update the fiscal forecasts in preparation for the Stability Programme Update in the usual manner.

Fiscal Data

Ceisteanna (133)

Pearse Doherty

Ceist:

133. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the level of capital expenditure required for gross fixed capital formation to account for 3% of GDP in each of the years 2020 to 2025. [50102/19]

Amharc ar fhreagra

Freagraí scríofa

As the Deputy is aware the Department of Finance's macro-economic and fiscal projections currently cover the period to 2024. These set out that general government gross fixed capital formation will be c.2.5 per cent of GDP.

Using the more appropriate measure of the Irish economy, this is equivalent to an average of 4.4 per cent of modified GNI (GNI*).

The nominal amounts equivalent to 3 per cent of both GDP and GNI* are shown below.

€ millions

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

3 per cent of GDP

10,540

10,955

11,420

11,895

12,375

3 per cent of GNI*

6,110

6,320

6,545

6,765

6,985

Questions Nos. 134 and 135 answered with Question No. 131.
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