Dáil Éireann Debate, Thursday - 17 September 2020
83. Deputy Pearse Doherty asked the Minister for Finance the estimated cost of amending the employment wage subsidy scheme by categories (details supplied) for those with turnover of 50% to 75% compared to reference periods under the scheme to the end of December 2020, 1 January to 31 March 2021 and 1 April to 31 December 2021. [24518/20]
Amharc ar fhreagraAs regards the Deputy’s question, the existing cost estimate for the Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme (EWSS) as set out below is based on the scheme being implemented in its totality as currently configured.
It is not possible at the present time to provide a reliable estimate of the cost impact of alterations to individual elements of the scheme (such as the rates and qualifying criteria). However, once Revenue has received EWSS returns relating to September, and there is a base to benchmark a cost estimate of the elements suggested by the Deputy, the question may be revisited.
The existing cost estimate for the scheme is an additional €2.25billion. This is comprised of €1.35bn until the end of 2020 and €0.9bn in 2021.
These costs are on the basis that the EWSS will support around 350,000 jobs into the beginning of 2021. Revenue have estimated that 360,000 workers were supported by the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme (TWSS) when it concluded at the end of August, so this expected level of coverage of EWSS is considered to be a reasonable assumption.
However, the cost of the EWSS will depend on the overall uptake of the scheme which will become fully apparent after the first claims have been processed in October 2020. I am advised by Revenue that, as of 15 September 2020, there were 33,348 employers registered for the EWSS which is considered a strong level of participation being proportionately more than half of all those who availed of the TWSS over the duration of that scheme.
It is emphasised that these cost projections are subject to review and for every additional 50,000 qualifying employments over the duration of the scheme, the cost is estimated to increase by €0.25 billion.
As the scheme is demand led I have been clear that a significant increase in the number of claims may require a policy review and re-evaluation of the terms of the scheme.
This is why the enacting legislation (Financial Provisions (Covid-19) (No. 2) Act 2020) provides that adjustments may be made to certain elements of the scheme. Following monitoring and regular assessments of the EWSS, such adjustments may be made by the Minister for Finance via secondary legislation, having consulted with my colleagues the Minister for Social Protection and the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform. The specific elements (set out in subsection 21 of the Act) are:
- the end date of the measure;
- the rate of subsidy and applicable income threshold per employee; and
- the turnover test to determine qualifying employers.
