Thomas Gould
Ceist:1229. Deputy Thomas Gould asked the Minister for Health the way in which the R number is calculated; and if this is in line with international best practice for the validation of computer systems [32723/20]
Amharc ar fhreagraTuesday, 3 November 2020
Ceisteanna (1229)
Freagraí scríofa
Technical notes on the approaches used to estimate effective reproduction number (Re) or time-dependent reproduction number (Rt) are published on the Department of Health website (https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/dc5711-irish-epidemiology-modelling-advisory-group-to-nphet-technical-notes/ ).
The Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group use several different techniques to calculate the effective reproduction number for the COVID-19 epidemic. The techniques are based on mathematical and statistical models of COVID-19;
a. Inferred from SEIR model
b. Fitting Bayesian epidemiological models similar to that introduced by Flaxman, S., Mishra, S., Gandy, A. et al. Nature 2020, using R package Epidemia.
c. Time-dependent R (method of Wallinga and Teunis (https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwh255)
d. GAM-Generalised Additive Models, which infers R from multiple data sources and is our most reliable estimate at present.
These are in line with best practice and associated references are available in the above mentioned published technical notes.