Oil prices have risen from about $16 per barrel in June 1999 to the current level of around $30 per barrel, an increase that was magnified by the intervening decline in the euro/dollar parity. The resulting increase in the price of motor fuel, motor oil and home heating oil contributed 1.1% to the 5.2% increase in headline inflation in the year to May last.
Regarding the inflation forecast for this year, I revised upwards our average inflation forecast last month. A new set of macro-economic forecasts, including inflation, will be published as usual by my Department in the economic review and outlook in July-August.