Climate Action Plan 2023 (CAP23) was the first statutory climate plan to incorporate both the economy-wide targets and legally binding sectoral emission ceilings, set by Government in July 2022. For transport, we are now obligated to pursue a decarbonisation pathway capable of achieving a 50% reduction in transport emissions by 2030, in a manner that is consistent with a sectoral emissions ceiling of 54 Mt for the first carbon budget period (2021-2025), and a sectoral emissions ceiling of 37?Mt over the second carbon budget period (2026-2030).
The design of the decarbonisation pathway for transport set out in CAP23, which has been premised on an ‘Avoid-Shift-Improve’ hierarchy for greater transport sustainability, has been informed by detailed transport modelling undertaken with the National Transport Authority. The targeted 20% reduction in total vehicle kilometres travelled by 2030, relative to the levels of increased travel demand expected in the absence of intervention, represents just one of several metrics presented in the plan indicating the transformative scale of change required.
Our decarbonisation pathway is multi-faceted and will require a combination of measures in order to change long-established patterns and preferences in how and where we travel, and to address the multitude of potential influences on our transport decisions. This will take time and as such the modelled pathway comprises an integrated and interdependent basket of measures that seek to promote behavioural change, improve public transport availability and competitiveness, and disincentivise private vehicle usage, alongside widespread vehicle electrification and the use of renewable transport fuels.
Greater levels of emissions abatement are thus expected in the second carbon budget period (2026-2030), once significant enhancements in the provision of sustainable alternatives to private car usage are more widely available.
Some recent key items of progress that will support this change to note include the recent launch of the ‘Your Journey Counts’ national advertising campaign, the continued implementation of actions in our Sustainable Mobility Policy Action Plan and Pathfinder Programme, the progression of BusConnects, MetroLink and DART+ schemes through key decision gates, the publication of the Cycle Design Manual and public consultations to inform the development of an extensive cycling network across our National Cycle Network and CycleConnects infrastructure programmes, and the continued roll-out of the NTA’s Connecting Ireland Rural Mobility Programme.
However, as the population continues to grow, demand management will also become increasingly important from an operational perspective. Managing transport demand by increasing the efficiency of the existing transportation system and reducing overall travel demand, where feasible, forms a key element of the decarbonisation pathway. In recognition of this, CAP23 committed my department to the development of a new National Demand Management Strategy.
Earlier this year, I established an inter-departmental and agency group to steer the development of this strategy, involving key delivery partners. The aim of the Strategy is to ensure that our transport system can operate efficiently into the future, with a strong emphasis on co-benefits such as health, air quality, road safety and placemaking. The Strategy will be high-level in nature and will define the type of measures that may be deployed nationally.
Subject to Government approval, I intend launching a phase of public consultation on the draft strategy in early 2024. My department is also undertaking targeted engagement with key stakeholders, building on a workshop on the issue at the department’s National Sustainable Mobility Stakeholder Forum, which took place on 20 April.