Dáil Éireann Debate, Tuesday - 14 May 2024
112. Deputy Violet-Anne Wynne asked the Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications what penalties Ireland will accrue if it does not meet its 2030 targets of a reduction of 50% on emissions and the 2050 target of 100% reduction on emissions; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [21375/24]
View answerThe Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2021 (the Act) sets ambitious and legally binding targets for Ireland to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by no later than 2050, and to reduce GHG emissions by 51% by 2030 compared to 2018 levels. The Act establishes a robust framework with clear targets and commitments enshrined in law, ensuring that the necessary structures and processes, such as carbon budgets and sectoral emissions ceilings, are statutorily embedded to support the achievement of Ireland's climate goals in the short and long term.
The legally binding nature of our emissions reduction targets places a firm obligation on the current and future Governments to maintain sustained climate action. The Environmental Protection Agency's annual GHG inventories and projections reports, along with the Climate Change Advisory Council's (CCAC) annual review and report, inform the monitoring of national and sectoral progress towards each carbon budget and sectoral emissions ceiling.
Following the publication of the CCAC's annual review and report by 30 October each year, relevant Ministers will be obliged to account for their performance before an Oireachtas Committee. This accountability will cover both the implementation of Climate Action Plan policies, measures and actions, as well as adherence to the sector's emissions ceilings under the carbon budget. In cases where Ministers fail to comply with the targets, they will be required to present the corrective measures they intend to take. Ministers will also be required to attend the Committee and provide responses to any recommendations made by the Committee within a three-month period. This 'comply or explain' approach aims to ensure heightened scrutiny and accountability.
The annual revision of the Climate Action Plan serves as an additional review mechanism, providing an opportunity to readjust or refocus actions to ensure the achievement of targets. The Department of the Taoiseach will continue to be responsible for reporting and publishing progress under the Climate Action Plan.
Despite the robust framework established by the Act, Ireland may still face significant compliance costs if it fails to meet its emissions reduction targets. Under the EU Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), Ireland has an overall annual emissions reduction target for the sectors not covered by the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). If Ireland exceeds these annual targets, it may need to purchase Annual Emissions Allocation units (AEAs) from other Member States with surplus allowances. A joint research paper finalised in February 2023 by my own Department and the Department of Public Expenditure, NDP Delivery and Reform estimated the potential cumulative costs of compliance with the ESR up to 2030 being between €3.5 billion and €8.1 billion, although these estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty.
Moreover, if Ireland exceeds its five-year carbon budget at the end of a budget period, the excess emissions will be deducted from the next budget, necessitating even greater emissions reductions to comply with the new budget. The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council estimates that transition costs could reduce Exchequer revenue by an annual rate of 0.9% (about €1.5 billion in today's money) up to 2030, and the Government may face annual costs of between €1.6 billion and €3 billion over the years 2026 to 2030, depending on the extent of private sector investment.
In addition to compliance and transition costs, Ireland may also face increased adaptation costs. The State may incur additional costs of about €0.5 billion or 0.2% of GNI* in supporting responses to extreme weather events, and further adaptation costs beyond the €0.1 billion per annum allocated for flood defences in the National Development Plan may also be required.
