In Exchequer terms, the budget day forecast was for a surplus of 3,222 million euro, or £2,538 million which was equivalent to 3.3% of GNP. The end September forecast was that the Exchequer surplus would be at least 1.9 billion euro, or £1.5 billion lower than the budget day forecast and possibly significantly more. These Exchequer figures exclude the proceeds from the new voluntary disclosure scheme and the sales of the TSB and the ICC.
Last December, the forecast for 2001 economic growth, published in conjunction with the budget, was for an increase of 8.8% in GDP and of 7.4% in GNP. My Department's most recent forecast for 2001 economic growth, published in Economic Review and Outlook, is for an increase of 7.2% in GDP and an increase of 6% in GNP. This forecast was prepared in August 2001 and, therefore, does not take account of the impact of the events of 11 September in the United States on global and domestic economic activity. It is very difficult, just a month after the events, to assess the full economic impact of the attacks on Ireland's economic growth. Obviously much depends on the effects on the world economy as a whole and on reactions to the ongoing military response. My Department will, as usual, publish its estimates for economic growth with the budget.
The economic environment has clearly altered radically compared to this time last year. Obviously the reduced tax base has implications going forward for increased tax revenue for surpluses and for debt. These factors are being examined in the context of the forthcoming budget.
Policy at this juncture must be geared towards ensuring that when the international economy recovers Ireland is positioned to benefit fully from that recovery. I am satisfied that in the medium term, as the global economic environment recovers, we can achieve satisfactory levels of growth which will benefit us all.