My criticism of this Budget is based on two propositions. Firstly, I think it imposes grave hardship on the weaker sections of the community and, secondly, it is a Budget which will retard economic progress. I say that the hardships imposed are unnecessary because I believe the arguments which the Minister for Finance and his colleagues have put forward are based on false reasoning. He justifies the abolition of the food subsidies on two propositions, first, that the Government had to balance the Budget, and second, that to balance the Budget, it was necessary to abolish the food subsidies.
I accept the first statement, but I vehemently deny the second. The savings to the Exchequer through the abolition of the food subsidies this year amount to £7.1 million. The Budget proposes to give compensatory relief in social assistance to the amount of £2.5 million and the net gain to the Exchequer is £5.15 million. The Government holds that there is no other way of getting that £5.15 million and that the only way to balance the Budget is to cut the subsidies.
I want to suggest four ways in which this Budget could be balanced without cutting the food subsidies. I suggest that there are at least four alternative methods open to the Minister, if he saw fit to use them, and if he wished to avoid the step of cutting the subsidies. I am not advocating these methods. All I am saying is that there are other methods and that it is nonsense to suggest that this was the only method by which the Government could balance the Budget this year.
The returns for last year show that taxes from import levies came to £4.25 million. It must be remembered that the levies last year were put into force in March and were increased in July, and that the increased levies were not in operation for the whole of the year. It must also be remembered that it is very likely that imports this year will increase over last year. Imports last year were down very considerably and in the last quarter were down 20 per cent. as compared with the previous quarter. It is a fair estimate that over a full year the levies would have brought in over £5,000,000, but they are not going to do it this year. The Government, instead, have cut the import levies this year, some of them, so that on the figures they are going to bring in only £2.5 million.
Had the Government decided to restore the levies, to bring back the levies they had taken off, and to save the £5,000,000, they could have got it from that, by transferring it from the capital account to the current account in the Budget and it would have been unnecessary to cut the food subsidies. The saving of £5.1 million which the Minister had to get, and which he got in the manner we all know, was there to be got by the import levies.
I know that transferring the import levies from capital account to current account would raise difficulties. I know there were grave economic difficulties facing this State and no matter what the Government were going to do, it was going to create difficulty, but I suggest that the Government should have taken the remedy which would cause least social and economic upset to the State. I know there would be difficulties on the capital account as a result of removing the revenue which the levies brought in from it. I only suggest it would have been better economically, and better socially, for the Minister to have balanced the Budget this year by that means rather than by the means he did adopt.
At the week-end the Minister and his colleagues and various Government spokesmen said that there were no concrete suggestions put up by the Opposition in the debate on the Budget. This suggestion was put forward by the Opposition very early on in the debate and it has not so far been answered.
There is another means I would suggest to the Minister of getting a saving of £5.1 million. The grants to the local authorities in relief of agricultural rates amount to £5.6 million. The Minister could have got the money there. He could, if he wanted to, have cut the grants to local authorities. It would have an effect on the ratepayers and on the local authorities and the farmers would have to pay more rates. It would have an economic effect, but the Capital Investment Committee did not think the economic effect would have been so severe. I am not suggesting that it would be the proper method of balancing the Budget; all I am saying is that there was another way of doing it. The Government took a bad political decision, an economic decision that they would not put the hardship on the rural community that they have put on the urban community.
There is another way in which the Budget could have been balanced. Do Deputies realise that there is £5.2 million coming into the Exchequer from taxation of motor vehicles? Do they realise that the proceeds of motor taxation, which is indirect taxation, go to building roads and repairing roads, which is merely a capital item? I suggest it is open to the Government to treat motor taxation as any other form of taxation, and bring it into the current account, and so balance the Budget. I am not suggesting again that this would not cause difficulties. It would mean that there would have to be £5,000,000 found on the capital Budget in order to pay for the roads, but what I would suggest is that it is possible to get that £5,000,000, or what-ever sum it is decided to shift to the current account, from the proceeds of motor taxation and that it would have caused much less social and economic difficulty in this State.
The fourth method I suggest is to combine the three methods I have mentioned. I suggest that there is not a Deputy in this House who is not conversant with conditions in our towns and cities and who does not know that in our towns and cities there are people living on the borderline of destitution. To my own knowledge, there are people going hungry. To my own knowledge, and I suggest to the knowledge of many Deputies here, there are people going cold because they cannot purchase adequate fuel. These are the people whom this Budget will hit.
I should like to ask the Minister a question: what could the Minister do with £2,500,000? Could he, for example, increase unemployment insurance, which he is not increasing under this Budget? Could he increase widows' contributory pensions, which he is not increasing under this Budget? Could he increase the T.B. allowance to those suffering from T.B., to those who will have to pay more for their bread and their butter but who, under this Budget, will not get any compensation? Could he increase pensions to retired local government officials or civil servants who are living on pittances at the moment? The Minister has this £2,500,000 in taxation. He has it in the Capital Account and I suggest that it should be pushed from the Capital Account into the current account and used to assist these people. He has it from the levies; he has £2,500,000 coming in from the levies, being used in the Capital Account.
The Government in 1952—the last period during which Fianna Fáil were in office—cut food subsidies. They agreed then that it was necessary to give compensation. They agreed it was necessary to compensate all recipients of social welfare benefits and not just the social assistance class. They agreed it was necessary to compensate those who were on unemployment insurance and widows in receipt of contributory pensions. They were given compensatory benefits to offset the cut in subsidies in 1952. No compensation has been given in this Budget. In this Budget only that class known as the social assistance group is getting any benefit, and the members of that group are getting 1/– per week. This figure of 1/– per week is based on what I might call a cynical miscalculation; it is based on the average increase in cost throughout the State of the increased price of certain commodities as a result of the abolition of the subsidies. Everybody knows that the poor eat more bread and butter —bread certainly, and butter when they can get it at a reasonable price— than the wealthier classes do. I am of the firm conviction that what the Government has done to the blind, the old, the infirm, the widow and the unemployed by their actions in this Budget is morally unjustifiable.
I want now to refer briefly to a certain aspect of the economic situation which has not been sufficiently stressed. The balance of payments deficit in 1956 was £14.4 million. In 1955 it was £35.5 million. Last year's reduction in the balance of payments amounted to some £21.1 million. But for an adverse movement in the terms of trade, this deficit would have been reduced by a further £7.2 million. Let me remind Deputies now that exports have increased in volume; that in the last three-quarters of last year they increased by 8 per cent., 10 per cent. and 9 per cent. respectively over the similar quarters in the previous year. Let me remind Deputies also of the fact that, for the first four months of this year, there has been an increase in exports by as much as £12,000,000. Whatever economic troubles this Government have to face, they do not have to face a balance of payments problem. The effect of movements last year and the results of actions taken by the last Government are to be seen in the banking statistics, statistics which, I think, are of great relevancy when dealing with the capital sides of this Budget.
It is recognised, in view of the fact that there has not been an inflow of foreign capital, to which we were accustomed, and as a result of the fact that we have not got the American loan to fall back on, that deficits in the balance of payments now reduce the sterling assets of the banks. This, of course, affects their ability to lend at home, as increased banking credit means more cash requirements, which, in turn, involves the transfer of sterling to the Central Bank. But the banks have not that worry this year. The deficit in the balance of payments was dramatically reduced last year and, in relation to their lending policy both to the Government and on private account, they need not fear the effects of that policy on the balance of payments position. Last year, in fact, the net external assets of the commercial banks increased by £2.674 million but that net figure does not give, to my mind, a true account of what happened last year because the banks' gross external assets increased last year by £11,000,000 and the rapid improvement in their position is to be seen when the figure for the June quarter of the last year is compared with the March quarter of this year. In that comparison it will be seen that their gross external assets increased during that period by £17,000,000.
I have always held the view—I do not say this because I am in opposition; I said it also in the last two and a half years when I supported the Government—that the Capital Budget of this State should not be limited by the amount of the annual subscriptions which can be obtained from the public. I welcome the decision of the Government to have recourse to the banks this year to finance the capital investment programme inasmuch as there is a shortfall from direct subscriptions to it from the public.
There are a couple of questions about the Capital Budget that I should like the Minister to answer. First, is the rate of interest that it is proposed the banks should get for lending direct to the Government decided? Is it proposed to pay the banks 5 per cent. or whatever rate of interest is paid to ordinary savers who forgo their income to lend to the Government? Or is it proposed that the rate of interest shall be lower?
I should also like the Government to consider the possibility and, indeed, to my mind, the desirability, of investing some of the assets of the Central Bank in Irish Government funds. I do not think it is justifiable for the Central Bank to have 100 per cent. backing of its note issue in foreign securities. I can see no economic reason, and no financial or social reason, why the Central Bank should not have a proportion, at any rate, of its assets held in Irish Government securities. This is an operation which cannot be done overnight, neither can it be done in one year. But it can be done gradually and a start could be made this year. In that way the capital side of the Budget problem would be eased by the assistance of the Central Bank.
The Government, of course, play a large part nowadays in investment here. It would be desirable if private enterprise were sufficient to do all this, but clearly it is not. Clearly, the Government have to play their part in increasing demand and in bringing about conditions of employment by investing in large-scale capital projects. I think every Government should try to see as much capital on private account invested in this country as possible. The Government should seriously consider the introduction of a discriminatory tax against Irish citizens who invest abroad and not at home. I do not think there would be any administrative difficulties in putting a discriminatory tax on incomes payable to Irish citizens at home from British securities. Of course, I would suggest it be limited to Irish citizens since we must try to get as much foreign capital as possible invested here.
I welcomed the remarks of the Minister for Industry and Commerce concerning the Control of Manufactures Act, because he appeared to indicate that at long last the Control of Manufactures Act will be got rid of. Any step in the direction of bringing foreign capital into the country should be welcomed as a means of giving the necessary employment we all desire. I agree with the Ministers who said that this Capital Budget should be as large as possible. I am not one of those who think that expenditure on so called social capital should be cut down. For instance, I think that expenditure on housing, which is the big item in social capital outlay, must be maintained because of the very serious housing conditions which exist, particularly in the City of Dublin.
However, my criticism of this Capital Budget is that too small a part of it has been devoted to capital works of a productive nature. It is an extra-ordinary fact that out of the £40.99 million which is the amount of expenditure on capital services this year, only a little over £3,000,000 is being spent on agriculture. I have gone through the figures in the Capital Budget—the moneys devoted to the E.S.B., Bord na Móna, the Industrial Credit Corporation, An Bord Iascaigh Mhara and so on.
All these total only £13.69 million so that of the total Capital Budget only a very small proportion indeed is being devoted to matters of a productive nature.
As previous Deputies have said, we are very used to economic platitudes in this House. I suggest there is not a Deputy who is not in favour of full employment, who does not think agricultural production should be increased. Will anybody deny it would be a wonderful advantage to have industrial production increased? Nobody will suggest we should not have as much capital investment in the State as possible. All these matters are of common agreement. I see no point in making elaborate speeches or of occupying the time of the House in saying this is what this Government is aiming to do. We are all agreed on these things and my criticism of this Budget is that these aims, on which we are all in agreement, will not be achieved by it because the financial measures are such as to do the very opposite.
The economic effects of cutting the food subsidies will be very grave. May I refer the Minister to an article written by a very distinguished Cambridge Professor of Economics, Professor Pigou, in the Economic Journal for June, 1948? This was written on food subsidies. It concerned the particular English conditions of that time which were very similar to the conditions with which we are familiar—balance of payments problems and inflationary tendencies in the State. I should like to refer to some of the conclusions which he arrived at in a very balanced type of article on the economic effects of cutting food subsidies.
On page 205 of this volume, he says:—
"In normal conditions, with all essential foods reasonably abundant, and no rationing, subsidies on these foods would inevitably push productive power towards them in a greater degree than people, given their individual post-transfer purchasing powers, would have chosen to push it, had the State remained neutral as between different kinds of expenditure."
It is a fact which we cannot deny that subsidies do have the effect of increasing production on items on which they are placed. Can it be denied that the effect of withdrawing the subsidy will reduce the production of butter? That, in fact, was the effect of cutting the subsidies from 1952 to 1954. The Government preaches about the desirability of higher agricultural production and then takes a step which will inevitably reduce one aspect of it.
May I refer the Minister also to a very important statement in this article at page 206? This is one of the matters on which this side of the House has criticised the Government most strongly. Professor Pigou says:—
"It is common ground, too, that subsidies could not properly be abolished at a single blow, but only by a gradual process. So much being understood and allowed for, how does the case for and against abolition stand?"
Professor Pigou is arguing on purely economic grounds. He says that it is common ground that subsidies could not properly be abolished by a single blow. That is exactly what the Government have done. If the effect of the abolition of food subsidies is that wage earners demand and get increased wages, that, in turn, is bound to have a serious effect on our general economy.
At page 208 of the same journal, the article states:—
"Every rise in money wage rates (without an associated rise in productivity) would push up the prices of goods produced in this country and, even though further secondary wage increases consequent upon that are somehow prevented, the price is bound, provided that the dollar sterling exchange rate remains fixed, to hamper our exports, thus making harder the urgent and overriding task of closing the adverse gap in our foreign balance."
Later on the same page, Professor Pigou states:—
"On the hypothesis that money wage rates do not rise to offset the cut in subsidies this policy, while it would do nothing to modify the disincentive effect of the tax system, would obviously exercise a considerable disinflationary effect."
I believe that, whether wittingly or unwittingly, that is what the Government is doing by cutting the food subsidies. It is creating a disinflationary movement in this State just when we need the very opposite type of policy to bring about more production and more employment. The conclusion he arrived at in this article, page 209, is:—
"Unless the trade unions enter into an arrangement with the Government under which cuts in the food subsidies can be made without consequential increases in money wage-rates being called for, it is almost certain that they will be called for and will, moreover, in large part be conceded. Under the stress of our balance of payment difficulties an arrangement of this kind may perhaps be made. But there are as yet few signs of it. It is a thing to be aimed at. If we can get it, let us begin cutting the subsidies forthwith; if we cannot, for the present leave them alone."
I want to examine the effects of cutting the food subsidies on our economy —firstly, on the very rebuttable assumption that wages do not go up. What will be the effect? People will have to pay more for bread and butter. Certainly, it will have a deflationary effect—a fall in real wages and in incomes, less purchasing power, less demand for the products of producers.
A secondary effect of the cut in the subsidies will be a fall in savings. Of course, the Minister is increasing forced savings by this method, but I think that that will show itself in a drop in voluntary savings. Supposing there is a rise in wages; supposing that, in fact, the exhortations of the Minister are not listened to and that wages do go up to compensate for the rise of 4½ points in the cost of living. Will that not mean another twist in the cost-of-living spiral? Will it not affect our capacity to export? It may also mean that a number of businesses and firms will go out of production because they cannot afford to pay the increases.
I do not know whether or not the Government has examined the economic effects of cutting the subsidies. If they have, I should be glad to know the answer to my suggestions. If I am correct in what I suggest, I think the Government should have done anything rather than take the steps they did, in fact, take.
May I refer, too, to the effect on the future budgetary position of the cut in the food subsidies? Supposing there is no increase in wages: the cut in the price of necessary foods is bound to have a deflationary effect. There will be less money to spend on dutiable goods and there is bound to be a fall in Exchequer returns on dutiable goods. Will this also not affect Government expenditure in future years? There is the first obvious fact that public servants may require and may rightly get an increase in their salaries to compensate them for the rise in the cost of living. It is a first increased charge on the Exchequer as a result of the abolition of the food subsidies. Supposing they do not get an increase in their salaries: still, even if all the matters that are in this Budget are kept next year and the year after, there is bound to be an increase in the cost of Government.
As a result of cutting the food subsidies, the cost of living will go up by at least 4.5 points. The total cost of Government this year, capital and current, is £160,000,000. A 2 per cent. increase in the cost of living means that Government expenditure next year will go up by £3,000,000. If the cost of living goes up, as suggested, all the savings that are being made this year will be eaten up as a result of the increased cost of Government next year and the year after.
I have suggested that there is little use in the members of the Government Party and their supporters talking about the desirability of increasing production and of increasing employment. We want actions, not words. I should like to see them, in their own words, getting cracking. I should like to see them do something that will increase employment and production. I refuse to accept the view that this country is doomed to suffer a haemorrhage of 40,000 people a year leaving its shores and a cancer of unemployment at a rate of 60,000 or 70,000 a year. I refuse to submit to the view that this country is doomed to stagnate in an economic backwater. I believe the conditions we are living in are remediable. I think the years and the passage of time have sapped the vitality of the Fianna Fáil Party and that power over a number of years has in a curious and subtle way corrupted it.
If this Budget is an indication of how this country is to be governed for the next few years, I see little hope of an immediate amelioration of our present difficult circumstances.