Some may say less, but if it is less now, it might have been less last year. By and large, the price of dropped calves has dropped over £10. That is 2,400 pence and that is 4d a gallon on the milk of a 600-gallon cow, or 3d a gallon on the milk of an 800-gallon cow—take it what way you like. Can you imagine what the reaction of the creamery farmers would be if anybody proposed asking them to carry on the creamery industry on the basis of reducing the price of creamery milk by 4d per gallon? That is in fact what they have been asked to do in the past 12 months as a result of the fall in prices of calves.
We all know that the yield of an 800-gallon cow last year was 650 gallons, if the owner was lucky and a 600-gallon cow did not do too badly if she gave 500 gallons. Those farmers are having a bad time. Lambs that were worth £5 or £6 two years ago sold last year—if you could sell them at all—for between £3 and £4 and I saw hundreds of lambs brought down from the hills and driven back again because there was nobody to buy them. I, myself, saw lambs sold for £3. 15/- last year which would have made £5 15/- or £6 the year before.
The price of barley was reduced from 40/- to 37/- a barrel. The number of pigs going into the factories has declined steeply. I ask farmer Deputies here who are familiar with conditions in rural Ireland today: do they remember at any time since the war, prices for young cattle being worse or demand slower? I had cattle out at a fair last week and I was not asked where I was going. I would have had no difficulty in selling the same cattle last year at £60 apiece. It is bad enough to be offered a bad price; it is much worse when nobody asks you anything. All those cattle were cattle with green tags on their ears coming from a farm where there are only green-tag cattle. I do not know if Deputies recall— Deputies, like the Parliamentary Secretary who spoke, have conveniently short memories—the prices women got for turkeys last Christmas? How many women who sold turkeys last year had any profit at all? How many made a loss?
I read with edification and attention the calculations of statisticians but these are facts that I get, not from books, but from my own neighbours' experience and from my own experience in rural Ireland. I want to submit to this House that whatever the statisticians say, whatever Pravda says, so surely as the average standard of living of the small farmer and the medium farmer in this country declines, so certainly will the repercussions be felt in the rest of our economy in due time. Let us remember—we who are now working and living in the city of Dublin—that a great bulk of employment for our people is provided in the towns of rural Ireland in providing services and accommodation for the farmers who frequent these towns. I would ask Deputies: how do these towns stand at present? I want to submit to the House that already in rural Ireland the drapery trade, the boot trade, the hardware trade and, to a lesser degree, the grocery trade are in the doldrums. These are facts. So certainly as those facts are true, their repercussions will be felt in the boot and shoe factories, the drapery warehouses and the other urban centres of supply.
I am glad to see that the fiscal stimuli provided by the inter-Party Government by way of tax exemption on profits earned on exports have yielded some return in the increased volume of exports which, I am told, is to be found in this year's trade returns. But I think the Minister for Finance will be the first to agree that we have been fortunate in the past year or two in the terms of trade on which we have been called to import and export. I hope they stay in our favour. If the terms of trade operating in 1955-56 had continued into 1957, 1958 and 1959, our present economic condition would be well-nigh desperate. But, very fortunately, they have turned in our favour and have yielded us an advantage in the balance sheet of anything from £8,000,000 to £12,000,000 per annum.
I am glad to see an increase in industrial exports but the great danger is that a £9,000,000 increase in industrial exports will be inflated in this House into a suggestion that they are some adequate substitute for what is to me the appalling tendency of the agricultural industry to fade away. Do Deputies appreciate that according to the Minister's estimate—and the Minister for Finance has himself been a Minister for Agriculture in his time —he anticipates virtually no exports of butter this year? I wonder does he anticipate any exports of any creamery butter at all? I understand that some chocolate crumb is going out. First grade cheese is good, but not as good as it was. There is a vast export trade, if we could but tap it, for dried milk. But the gloomy prognostication of the Minister himself is that he sees no prospect of any substantial butter exports at all. I hope he is wrong. I believe he is wrong. I believe the good hay season we had last year and the mild winter ought to produce some surplus of butter for export and I shall be appalled if it does not.
The present trend gives one no reason to hope that we will have any substantial exports of bacon in the coming year, but I hope we may. At present we have no agricultural exports at all, except cattle, a trickle of sheep, and wool. Fortunately, we have wool; because we succeeded in doubling the number of sheep on the hills. But if the price of lambs continues to decline as it did last year, there is very grave danger of a contraction in the number of sheep with a subsequent reduction in our exports of wool.
I want to make this perfectly clear. In the last analysis, there is no substitute for the profit motive to persuade the farmers to extract the maximum return of which the soil of Ireland is capable. That is the first cardinal economic principle I have learned in my experience of the public life of this country. But there is a second: no matter how urgent the allure of price may become, we shall not get the maximum return, unless it is put within the farmer's reach to employ the most effective methods, with many of which he is not now familiar.
There is no means on God's earth of doing that except by bringing within his immediate reach—though not imposing upon him—a skilled adviser to whom he can have recourse for advice, if and when he wants it. This is absolutely certain. I learned by my own experience that it is true—I think the Minister for Agriculture is unduly obsessed with this—that, at first, in many parts of Ireland, the agricultural adviser is looked upon with suspicion, but if you have patience, he will get into one, two or three progressive farms in his area. Then, with astonishing rapidity, when the neighbours see what informed agriculture can do on their neighbour's holding, they will come in and seek the advice themselves.
The experience we had in Bansha cannot be too often repeated. I sent the first parish agent in this country to Bansha. My instructions to him were not to approach any farmer himself. I remember calling in a young inspector of the Department and saying to him: "Now, I am going to give you the most difficult assignment it is possible to give anybody. I am going to ask you to go down to Bansha and, in effect, to do nothing for six months. I want you to go down, sit in the parish agent's office and impose upon yourself the self-denying ordinance of being available to everybody while trespassing on nobody."
So it transpired that, despite strong local co-operation from Muintir na Tíre, a long period elapsed in which he did not make contact with more than half a dozen farmers in the whole of that parish. Before he left it, he had been invited into 99 per cent. of the holdings in the parish of Bansha and I do not want to weary the House with the statistical results of one agent's operations in that parish. They can be measured by the application of lime to the land, by the application of phosphate and potash to the land, by the increased output of the land and by the diversification of agriculture in that parish. The work of such an agent was beyond praise.
That can be done in practically every parish in Ireland and, given a reasonable price incentive and access to advice of that character, I am convinced that the output of the land of Ireland can be increased by 50 per cent. and I should be surprised if, over 10 years, it could not be doubled. That is the key to the solution of the economic problems of this country. If you could increase the total output of the agricultural industry by 50 per cent. you could increase the agricultural exports of the country, not by 50 per cent. but by 250 per cent., and that is the equation that a lot of people forget to take into account.
Every additional pound's worth of agricultural output in this country is destined for the export market. We ourselves are eating here all the food that our people require and are to-day the best fed population in the whole world, measured by international standards, and my recollection of the correct equation is that if we could increase the output of the land of Ireland by 50 per cent, that would result in an increase of 250 per cent. in agricultural exports.
If we can engender that increase, there will flow from it a very considerable volume of the processing of agricultural products in this country because, in our exertions to solve the problem of marketing so substantially an increased volume of output, it will inevitably emerge that some of it will be processed in one form or other for export. Its processing, and the development of industry based on that increased agricultural output, will in turn increase industrial employment and so will lead to a very substantially increased consumer potential in this country, and the one will help the other. In my judgment, by that means, we can reach, in this country, what is now popularly described in international economic circles as the "takeoff point in economic expansion".
I would remind the House that when O.E.E.C. experts came here, they committed themselves to the view that, having made a survey, they were satisfied the potential was here for an annual increase in agricultural output, not of two per cent. but of seven, eight or nine per cent, that we had the essential infra work completed and that, if we put our minds together on that increased output, over a period of ten years, we would detonate a real, dramatic—one might almost describe it—explosive economic progress. I know of no other basis upon which such a forward move can be postulated, and I am equally certain that on the land of this country and the people who live upon it, we have the basis upon which real progress could be made.
I do not want to underestimate the marketing problems that will be created by that increased output, but I have no doubt in my mind that, given adequate market research and a resolute determination to do what may be necessary to market the increased output, it can be done. I do not want to sound extreme because I do not believe we shall be driven to extreme measures, but I should be quite prepared to implement direct marketing to the consumer, if that were necessary, in order to market the increased output of the agricultural industry. I do not believe it is necessary and I believe we can get that increased output disposed of in the market of our neighbours, consisting of 50,000,000 people, who, working to the limits of their capacity on their own land, could not produce half of the food they ordinarily consume and whose tendency will be to consume more and more of the kind of food we produce as their standards of living continue to rise, through the ordinary channels of trade.
But, if it should appear to us that we would be blocked by an international cartel or combine, we have the means of entering that market direct, and undertaking direct selling in it in respect of commodities like bacon and butter, provided we have enough to supply it. I am referring to this only in the most superficial way because I do not think it is my duty to go into details of that kind at this stage. I think that is the job of the Government. Yet I am constitutionally incapable of getting up here and simply lambasting the Government, without envisaging some of the things we might do if we had the power to do them, which, unhappily at the moment, we have not got.
I do not expect the Minister for Agriculture to understand what I am talking about but I have some vague hope that other members of the Government may. I could well imagine, if it were put to me that I could not find room for this increased volume of butter and bacon, myself replying: "Take Liverpool and Cheshire and we will concentrate our supplies of bacon in that area, if needs be to the consumer direct through Irish bacon shops, and if we have butter and cannot pass it into the ordinary channels of trade, very well, let us concentrate on Cardiff and Birmingham and, if needs be, we will sell it direct to the consumer there also." I do not believe that situation would arise but the potentials are vast if the only problem is marketing, but you cannot have a market if you have not the wherewithal to supply it and the first thing to do is to get the supply, give the assurance that the Government mean to market the supply when it becomes available, and I believe we should give that assurance now.
I am convinced that out of the increased output of the land of this country, we could get a sound basis for genuine economic expansion that would provide employment for a great many more of our people than are at present being employed. I do not believe that there will ever be a complete cessation of emigration from this country and I want the House to mark those words carefully and well. I believe the day any country prohibits its people from emigrating, then that country is only fit for relegation behind the Iron Curtain. One of the fundamental freedoms of any free people is that they shall be free to come and go as they desire but what I want to avoid, and what I believe most rational people want to avoid, is that anybody should be driven out of the country by the fact that he cannot get a living in it.
What is the use in telling me that a man should not go? I know a man from the country who was earning about £7 a week, who went to Canada seven years ago and he is a millionaire now. If he had stayed here at home, he would still be earning £7, £8 or £9 a week. He never had to go but this would be a poor country if he had been forbidden to go. In my judgment, our aim should be to create an economic situation where our people can get a decent living here if they want to stay.
At present there is a great volume of emigration going on, particularly from the west of Ireland. The man to query on that is not the statistician; it is the man who has a shop in rural Ireland. Ask the man who sells drapery or the man who sells stout and the latter will be able to tell you how many bottles of stout were consumed in his area last year, and how many this year. You need not worry about whiskey. The young fellows do not drink whiskey. They have not drunk whiskey for the past 35 years, and they do not drink much lemonade, either. The old fellows do not buy a lot of clothes. When they buy a coat it is meant to do them 20 years. They expect to be buried in it. The old women do not buy much clothes. When they buy a coat they expect it to be hanging on the back of the door the day they are laid out. It is the young people who buy clothes. It is the young people who provide the bulk of the custom in the rural towns of Ireland and it is from the local shopkeeper that you will find out whether the population is rising or falling in his area.
I challenge any person with knowledge of any rural town west of the Shannon to deny that the population is steadily declining and has rapidly declined in the course of the last two or three years. It is that that I should like to see stopped. I should like to see the economic development in this country which did not drive people out.
What is happening at the present time is that on farms of less than 50 acres in Ireland it is no longer possible to make an income which will induce people to stay when they compare it with the industrial wages available in Great Britain and, when you get down to the 20, 25, and 30 acre farm, it is becoming more and more common for the farmer himself, his wife and family to lock the door and clear out. You will not get young people to stay on a farm in Ireland now that is under 40 acres.
I have spoken of rates. I have mentioned here the urgent necessity of bringing within the reach of farmers the technical assistance requisite to get the maximum return from the land. I should like to read for the House a very typical Fianna Fáil reaction. There was a discussion at Clare County Committee of Agriculture, reported in the Clare Champion of Saturday, February 27th:—
Mr. O'Meara said that the two farmers' organisations, the N.F.A. and Macra na Feirme, had asked them to supply more instructors.
Mr. O'Meara went on to say:
They had got a direction from the Minister for Agriculture that they would have to supply them. It was the intention of the Government to have an instructor in every two or three parishes.
Whereupon Senator Brady of Fianna Fáil spoke up and said:
Produce that direction. That is only Dillon's programme — the Parish Plan. There was no such direction from the Minister.