The Minister for Local Government has today made an order appointing Wednesday, 10th May, 1972, to be the polling day of the referendum on the proposal to amend the Constitution to allow the State to become a member of the European Communities. Polling will take place between the hours of 9 a.m. and 10 p.m. The Minister has also made an order appointing Mr. Gerald O'Doherty, a principal officer in his Department, to be the returning officer for the purpose of the referendum.
I should like to add to what Deputy O'Higgins has said, that on 10th May we get an opportunity to vote and we have to insist that this chance will not come again. There will be no second run at it. We make a decision which, one way or the other, will be a firm decision about the future course of the country and the decision to join Europe is the only one that I or any member of the Government on behalf of the Government could recommend to the people. Anybody with any responsibility to bear, either in fact or in imagination, for the future of this country and its government could only be appalled at the prospect of carrying that responsibility if the country failed to decide now, in the present conditions and on the present terms negotiated, to accept membership.
Apart from some inaccuracies about the terms negotiated, I think Deputy O'Higgins made a very useful contribution to this debate in stressing this fact that the decision is so appallingly different—a decision to go ahead into membership, into a framework where this country can find its full economic and social development, where the normal democratic processes here can work for the development of this country in co-operation with countries democratically ruled in the same way as this one is, or a decision to turn away from the other democratic countries in Europe, to turn towards a situation where we would be seeking charity from a Community where we could have rights or where we would have to look elsewhere for the support of a crashing economy. This decision is such a big one that I would like to say again that we will not get the chance to make it twice. We make it on the 10th May and it will be made by the people. Anybody whom I can influence to vote "yes" for membership to Europe, I will do so.
Two years ago, when the Taoiseach asked me to go to Europe, to the capitals, to find out was there any change in the position about negotiations, I was met with the appalling news there at the time that there was a prospect of a Community of seven, that Britain would be admitted through negotiations and that the other applicants would follow at a later date. At that time we made a serious study of the effects of this on our people, on our economy and of our prospects for negotiating conditions of entry with a Europe of seven rather than with a Europe of six.
Since that examination I have put as much of my time and energy as possible into convincing the people concerned in Europe that we should be allowed to negotiate at the same time as Britain and accede at the same time as Britain. They accepted this and they have given us conditions on which we can do it and it is in the hands of our own people now. But, if by our own decision we fail to take this opportunity, the same prospect is there before us of coming back, as Deputy O'Higgins said, begging for charity from a Community where we could have rights, coming back to negotiate with a Community in which there are people whose interests are different from ours, to negotiate with a Community of people whose own interests would be damaged, perhaps, as Deputy O'Higgins said, by our admission. This opportunity to negotiate these terms of entry, to negotiate admission, will not come again.
About the same time as we started this investigation on behalf of the Taoiseach, or soon after, there was a leading article in one of the Irish papers saying that the Minister for External Affairs was interested only in the price of butter in this European venture. This, of course, was not so but, no matter how high up we start on the idealism in relation to membership of Europe, we always end up sliding down the economic and other problems involved until we come to the price of butter. Deputy Corish first, and then Deputy O'Higgins, started off by saying that this is a political decision and it should be based on political considerations. In both cases they met the same fate as I have so often met, ending up talking about the ordinary things that bother ordinary people about membership of Europe.
I will try it the other way round. I will try to deal with some of the points raised in the debate. Most of the points against membership have been dealt with by other speakers here and there is no need for me to deal with them. Some of the points made in the debate I will deal with and I will try to end by dealing with some concepts of the Community as I see it and as I would wish to have the country join.
Most of Deputy Corish's speech was taken up with the threat of free trade. I should like to say again— and I will say it as often as I can— that free trade is coming whether we join Europe or not. Free trade is coming. Europe is there. Europe is enlarging. Britain is joining Europe. These are facts of life. So, the question of worrying now about what will happen or what we can do about free trade is a job for a banshee. It is no good going around saying we will all be ruined if we join the Community because of free trade. We are going to have free trade whether we join the Community or not and, instead of doing a banshee job on it, the Government, ten years ago, commenced the preparation of this country for free trade. I do not know how well it was understood by Opposition Deputies at the time but when we made unilateral cuts in our tariffs, when we made the Free Trade Area Agreement with Britain, when we set up the Department of Labour and legislated for the provision of training for workers and retraining, when we brought in legislation for redundancy and resettlement, when the CIO reports were instituted, when grants were made available to industrialists for adaptation and when time after time the present Taoiseach and the Taoiseach before him went throughout the country exhorting managements to take steps to meet free trade, this is what we were preparing for. We were preparing for free trade, which is coming anyway. Our decision to meet free trade as a member of the European Communities instead of meeting it outside of membership, without any help, was a decision taken after we had made it quite clear that free trade was coming anyway. We decided then that we would meet the problems and difficulties of free trade as a member of the European Communities.
When Deputy Corish referred to the Minister for Transport and Power in a jocose way saying "no problem" I know he did not mean to offend him. Nobody in the Government has ever said there will not be any problem. We are prepared for problems. We have told the people there will be problems. What we emphasise is that there shall be fewer problems by our being members of the EEC. Free trade is coming anyhow.
Deputy Keating argued that an association agreement would be preferable to full membership. That is a measure of the weakness of the case he put. He illustrated his case by referring to the association agreement entered into by the Community with Turkey and he said that the same type of agreement would meet our interests, and suggested we could now negotiate such an agreement. That is nonsense. Ireland is not Turkey. The considerations which existed in the case of Turkey do not apply to Ireland. Turkey is an underdeveloped country—it is accepted as an underdeveloped country—and I suppose it is necessary to make the point that classification as a developed country or an underdeveloped country is done not by the country concerned but by other countries. It is done according to objective economic criteria.
We might look at some of the international statistics. We find that the gross national product in Ireland is four times that of Turkey. 72 per cent of Turkey's work force is in agriculture. The figure we have now for Ireland is 27 per cent. These are examples of the major economic differences between Ireland and Turkey.
In October, 1969, the EEC Commission gave an opinion on Ireland's application for membership. In that opinion they stated that we were a developed country and the Community has dealt with us on that basis. It was possible for Turkey to negotiate the terms of an associated membership because the Community regarded Turkey as an underdeveloped country. There were other considerations. The Community takes care of itself. For instance, the Community gave favourable concessions to Turkey for her agricultural exports because these consisted of products which are not produced, or produced in insufficient quantity, in Community nations. Therefore, when Deputy Keating speaks about agricultural products which the Community would buy, I should like to refer him to Turkey's exports to the Community—tobacco, hazel nuts, dried grapes, seeds, citrus fruits and olive oil. The Community will take any amount of these because they are not in direct competition with Community interests.
Even if the Community were prepared to begin to negotiate for associate membership for Ireland, I do not think Deputy Keating believes that the Community would be, or could afford to be, so generous with Ireland in respect of the temperate zone products which we export. In regard to temperate zone products, we are in direct competition with the nations of the Community, and we must remember that the Community is there for the benefit of all its people.
I do not think Deputy Keating has visualised a situation in which the Community would allow any exit for our dairy produce although he must know how much farmers, particularly small farmers, depend on dairy produce. He said that Turkey got a transitional period of 22 years. I can tell him that the basic transitional period given to Turkey was 12 years and in respect of some produce it was given 22 years. Therefore Deputy Keating was inaccurate in that respect. Neither was he accurate when he said that from time to time all Turkish produce has free access to Community markets. The condition does not apply to fabrics and textiles which comprise one-third of Turkey's industrial exports. The excluded products are those which are in competition with Community production.
The Deputy can take it that the Community lets in what does not harm them in any type of market. All our industrial products would be in direct competition with all or some members of the Community. Therefore, the likelihood of free access for our industrial goods would be removed even if the Community thought in terms of Ireland being an underdeveloped country. I suppose the Deputy thinks we might get free access for some of our industrial products for a 12 or a 20-year period. In that time we would be excluded in respect of our industrial products and we would be excluded— and I emphasise this—from participation in the EEC common agricultural policy and from taking an effective part in the making of Community decisions.
I think any decisions made by the Community will affect vitally our interests in the near and far future. Our exclusion would mean that in a period of, for instance, 12 years our growth would be less than that of the Community and everybody will accept that the rich countries are getting richer and the poor poorer. Therefore, there is no point in advising our people to take the road to being worse off, and I do not think anybody legitimately will suggest that in a period of 12 years we could close the gap now existing between us and EEC countries.
We need the help of the Community. There is not anything to stop us from growing except lack of capital. If there is one thing which will stop us from creating new jobs for our people it is lack of capital. As members of the Community we will have access to capital. As I have said, the gap between us and the Community will widen if we are outside it, and the disasters spoken of by Deputy O'Higgins—the wiping out of our industries and the wrecking of our entire economy—will bring all the bad effects that people forecast who speak against membership of the Community.
If we do not join the Community now, the arguments put up by the Labour Party against our joining will certainly come true. If the Community negotiates with us on the basis of recognising that we need help—as that was done in the protocol—we will get it and it will be guaranteed on the basis of our present state of development. Anybody making an assessment of the progress made by countries who have capital available to them, and who compare that with those who have not, will see that our decision to join the Community now is the wise one. A decision on our part to stay out of the Community would have the effect of widening the gap, of making it much more difficult for us to become members of the Community at a future date. If we were to become members at a future date our contrary decision now would create a much bigger problem for the Community then in respect of what they have now undertaken in our respect—to bring this country's level of development up to that of their present member nations.
Deputy Corish remarked that the Minister for Industry and Commerce and the Minister for Agriculture and Fisheries could not get in. I would remind him that they have spoken in many debates here in regard to our membership of the EEC. One point the Minister for Industry and Commerce might have liked to deal with is the cost of living. It is impossible exactly to predict what the cost of living will be in membership of the EEC. Nobody knows the changes that will take place in agriculture prices during the next few years. The only estimate that can be made is one related to prices in the EEC and in Ireland at the moment. If we are to close the gap between these two sets of prices in a period of five years from now, it appears that the overall cost of food will rise here between 2 per cent and 3 per cent. Because the cost of food represents only part of the cost of living, the increase in the overall consumer price index would be less than that, not more than 1 per cent a year. That is the extent of the increase in consumer prices directly attributable to membership of the EEC. However, membership of the EEC may be expected to bring reductions in the prices of some items other than food. The elimination of protective duties on trade within the Community and improved competition in the sale of many goods should benefit the consumer by lower prices or better value for money.
It must be said that factors such as rising costs due to general inflation may affect prices in the years ahead. I think the House would agree that it would be clearly wrong to attribute all that or any such price increases to EEC membership. The direct effect of EEC membership on consumer prices will be quite small. Some opponents of membership, who have made very misleading and even dishonest statements about food prices after we join the EEC, must know that the real effect will be quite small. These people have quoted the retail price of some food in Germany and claimed that we in Ireland will have to pay the same prices as they now do in Germany. This is simply not true. In the present Community of six countries prices vary greatly and widely.
Membership of the EEC does not require us to have the same retail prices as any other member of the Community. The results of a survey of retail prices within the Community published last year illustrate this position. The price of bread was found to be 10 per cent higher in Germany than in the other countries while beef, fresh fish and some milk products were cheapest in the Netherlands. Variations were found in the cost of other goods and services largely due to local conditions in the member countries. It is quite irresponsible and quite misleading to select prices of particular products in particular countries and say that the Irish prices for these goods will be similar. The classic example which has been taken is that of the price of tea. The anti-EEC lobby implied we will all have to pay the very high price now found in Germany. There is no reason whatever why the price of tea should change because we join Europe. We do not buy our tea for Europe and there will be no import duties payable on tea.
Reference has been made to the question of neutrality. Deputy Cruise-O'Brien went so far as to allege that I had in the negotiations voluntarily offered that we would enter into military commitments. This is totally without foundation.