This budget must be examined in the light of what it should do and what it does to stimulate the economy and provide the necessary reliefs for those sections of the community which have been so severely hit by the rise in prices. This budget is being discussed at a time when, by any standards, we have one of the gravest situations ever to affect the country. On the one hand, we are considering the important question of whether this country should become a member of the EEC and what will be involved in that membership: on the other hand, we are presented with serious problems and challenges politically and economically, politically in the grave effects which recent events in the North of Ireland have caused and are causing both to those directly involved and to many indirectly affected economically and socially. In addition, in facing this situation, we have a very serious unemployment problem with the highest number on the unemployment register for many years and in percentage terms the highest of any member or prospective member of the EEC.
Coupled with this, we have the serious contraction this year in the number of tourists and the difficulty we have had in recent times in attracting new industry to this country and the problems which industry has had to face and which have been the subject of many comments by those directly involved in it. Some of these problems have been with us for some time; others have arisen because of the inability or incapacity of the Government to plan effectively and consistently to adopt and implement the necessary decisions to carry into effect plans set out on paper and programmes laid down in different economic programmes which were announced with such publicity and which have produced such meagre results.
The budget must be examined in particular to see what it does for the weaker sections of the community and, in that regard, my colleagues and I and others in the community have repeatedly outlined the steps we consider essential to compensate the lower income groups in the community, pensioners and others on fixed income, for the substantial rise in the cost of living and in prices. I advocated only last week a substantial increase in children's allowances and in old age pensions and in personal allowances for income tax purposes and I recommended what has been sought for so long by so many State pensioners parity for those who have retired for some time with those who have retired recently.
This budget attempts to provide some of these reliefs: it gives parity in respect of State pensioners, a long overdue measure, applicable from 1st January this year. It also provides certain increases in respect of old age and other pensions. Presented baldly on paper as a percentage increase on existing pensions, these figures show an improvement but they must be taken into account with the actual rise in prices that has occurred.
In the course of a debate here last year I said that the introduction of decimalisation had resulted in a prices explosion. At the time the Taoiseach criticised that description. He said it was inaccurate and that the changes I had quoted applied to certain areas that I had picked specifically and which were disadvantageous to the Government but which did represent a very substantial increase. This week I got a reply from the Taoiseach to a parliamentary question. This reply sets out the changes that have occurred between mid-February, 1971, and mid-February of this year. It requires no embellishment of a verbal character to emphasise the extraordinary increases in prices and, when this information is considered together with an article by the business correspondent of the Irish Independent entitled “Leap in Food Prices after Decimal Coins”, I think the description I gave has been proved accurate.
Some of the increases in pensions that are being granted will take effect from August next and others will apply from October, but I am wondering how these increases will compare with actual rises in prices. The general change in price levels in this country in recent years has averaged an increase of between 8 per cent and 9 per cent. These figures are agreed by the OECD and other bodies and they have been confirmed by our own Central Statistics Office. If we consider the increases that are being granted now to the social welfare categories, we find that they compare almost exactly with the increases in prices up to February last, not taking any account of increases since then.
Increases in food prices affect particularly the social welfare categories. Between February of 1971 and February of this year, bread prices increased by between 17 and 19 per cent and flour prices increased from between 12 per cent and 15 per cent. Most people in the category to which I am referring could not afford to buy meat in large quantities, but let us look at the increases in respect of this commodity. During the period with which I am dealing corned beef increased in price by 3 per cent while there was a 9 per cent increase in respect of steak. In fact, the price of every item of food has increased since last year. There are further increases in respect of brisket corned beef of up to 18 per cent, round steak has increased by 19 per cent, sirloin steak by 20 per cent and mutton by 15 per cent. I am taking these prices from the published table.
Therefore, it will be seen that an effort has been made in the budget to compensate for these increases in prices but no conscious effort has been made to effect an improvement in living standards. There have been substantial increases in prices over a whole area but I shall deal with that later. For many sections of our community the struggle has become much more difficult. That is why I raised last week the question of what decision is to be taken by the Government to compensate these sections in the event of price changes as a result of EEC membership. Effective steps must be taken immediately in this matter. I am in favour of joining the EEC. I believe that, economically and politically, it is the right decision for us; but I accept that there are sections in the community which, particularly in the initial stages of membership, must be compensated for any increases that may occur so that there will not be a deterioration in their standard of living.
This year, as a result of our joining the EEC, there will be a saving in agricultural subsidies of £30 million. The budget is designed to promote economic expansion in that it does not impose extra taxation. As the Minister said, it is proposed to finance that in two ways: to borrow £27 million and to get a once-and-for-all payment from the Central Bank of £7 million. The House is entitled to a more comprehensive explanation than that given by the Minister as to how this £7 million was accumulated. He has told us that, arising from the expansion of the Central Bank's activities and also from the exceptionally high interest rates obtainable on invested funds in recent years, a credit balance of this amount was accumulated in the bank in respect of surplus income. This has happened at a time when every section of the community was finding it increasingly difficult to get money. It happened at a time when it was very difficult to raise the necessary moneys to finance industrial and economic development.
By way of some activities that have not been disclosed the Central Bank has accumulated this surplus. Even allowing for inflation and devaluation, that is a sizeable amount by any standards. It was accumulated at a time when the Confederation of Irish Industries—a body that no one could accuse of being historically antiGovernment—expressed their condemnation of the measures taken by the Government in regard to company tax, a move that we described then as a panic measure on the part of the Government. The Confederation of Irish Industries in press releases and in submissions to the Government voiced their strong objections to that proposal because of how it would affect adversely Irish companies compared with their competitors in Britain and elsewhere. It is well to examine now what has been the effect of that decision. It increased company taxation and made it retrospective to the extent of £6 million.
Within 12 months that decision was reversed as to 50 per cent of the increase. This decision has now been completely reversed in this budget. Industry has found that that decision meant that it was more difficult for them to get the necessary liquid or surplus cash to expand and develop. This is where the failure of the Government to plan effectively on a consistently economically sound basis is noticeable. The Government should not shift with every wind, either internal or external—internal in the Fianna Fáil Party, or external in regard to events here or elsewhere. The confederation stressed in table 2 of page three of its submission prior to the budget that the retentions had dropped by 23.68 per cent. The retentions provide the money available for expansion development or whatever other purpose is required in respect of the company's operation. This figure was compiled from a sample made of companies whose facts and figures were made available or who had discussions with the Confederation of Irish Industry. This is a very dramatic figure which they have published. The figures available from company accounts show an alarming fall in retentions. As I have said, the figure is over 23 per cent. At the same time, these companies were faced with the problem of expanding employment and of finding it more and more difficult to develop and to get industry geared for the situation which would develop either in the event of the EEC membership or in respect of competing with their competitors elsewhere.
It is stressed in the recent OECD publication that major policy decisions will be required in the near future. Having examined the Irish economy for the last year, in its report it is said at paragraph 59:
These problems are not new, and their origins can be traced back to structural as well as conjunctural factors. The high absolute level of unemployment—side by side with bottlenecks in certain localities and skills—reflects the still somewhat traditional industrial structure, and highlights the urgent need for modernising production. But its sharp aggravation in recent months was the result of the low level of demand at home and in the United Kingdom. Irish inflation is also, to a large extent, a reflection of trends abroad. But Ireland has been among those member countries experiencing the most rapid rates of cost and price increases over the past three years. Evidence exists that imports have gained ground in recent years as a result not alone of freer trade but also of some loss of Irish price competitiveness.
That is a comment by an outside body which goes on to say in a later reference at paragraph 69:
The need for a comprehensive long-term strategy is underlined by forthcoming entry into the European Communities and the prospects of moving to a higher sustainable rate of growth.
It also reads:
Long-term questions which might be included in such a programme are:
—Manpower policies, considering both employment and rationalisation needs. This might call for some acceleration of the expansion of industrial training and labour adaptation schemes, particularly so as to give service industries the same encouragement as is provided for manufacturing;
—a more active regional policy—for which there will be a good opportunity when Ireland is inside the European Communities—in order to make an effective assault on long persisting structural unemployment;
Insofar as Government decisions are concerned they have been haphazard and inconclusive. They have been haphazard in that when decisions have been taken they have not been implemented. We have been waiting for months to implement the recommendations of the Devlin Committee on certain changes within the Government. The legislation is before the House and so far has not been proceeded with.
There has been legitimate pressure in regard to the VAT because of the real fears of industry and trade. When we ask to have a decision postponed, we find that the tax being introduced in Britain is entirely simpler in its operation than what is proposed here. The decision to introduce VAT should be further examined before any proposals are introduced later this year to add additional burdens to the community. In the recent report of The National Prices Commission there is a certain amount of special pleading about this. At paragraph 24 the report reads:
Our general conclusion, from the discussion in paragraphs 14-23 above, is that the replacement of the wholesale and turnover taxes by VAT should have a small effect on the general level of prices and that its effects on relative prices should not be significant. If prices do not rise appreciably, the reason will be an unjustified reaction to the introduction of VAT by manufacturers and distributors or cost increases arising for reasons other than VAT. We propose to monitor the prices of a wide range of products during the two months preceding and the two months following the introduction of VAT. The results will be published in a monthly report following the completion of the study.
I do not know what advantage there is in publishing reports of increases after they have occurred. We must take into account the phenomenal rise in prices which occurred following decimalisation. These are facts contained in reports of the Central Statistics Office and in the actual variation in the price index. We must examine how prices have been examined and what function, if any, the prices section of the Department of Industry and Commerce have in this regard. I have never held the view that price control of itself is largely ineffective, but there is nothing worse than the illusion that there is a section or a body investigating prices and that, to quote the leading article of The Irish Press of the 18th February, 1972—
Eighty per cent of the complaints regarding over-charging of goods to the public were found to be justified last year. This is a very frightening statistic. It calls in question the basis of the price control structure and it indicates that respect for the law in this vital area is at a low ebb.
Does one expect from a Government which have such a low regard for law enforcement that other sections of the community should respect them? The article further states:
Make no mistake about it the trader who offends in this way has no right to point a finger at law breakers in other matters.
It goes on to quote from what the Minister had said, but it is even more severe when it says, and I quote:
Surely if ever there were a case that justice should not only be done but be seen to be done it is in the field of price fixing for goods so that this crucial factor in the relationship between incomes and prices can be properly assessed.
We must consider the weaker sections of the community, pensioners and other social welfare recipients, but outside those categories there are many people in the community whose situation is worsened. I look particularly at the extraordinary increase in respect of two aspects that have been included in the consumer price index, one in respect of rates, which increased in the past 12 months by over 20 per cent. A song and dance was made by the Minister for Health and some of his colleagues because, due to the recent decision the Government took, the increase in health charges would not be as great as it otherwise would be. No matter what was done they could not be much higher than they have been. It is true that this year the State has assumed part of the liability for the substantially increased charges that would apply, because of the widespread outcry, because of the violent reaction not only in this party and in the Labour Party and elsewhere but among Fianna Fáil councillors throughout the country at the astronomic rise in rates due to the health charges.
Let us go further and examine the increase in hospital charges. I do not think Deputies are aware that hospital charges increased by over 20 per cent. There has also been a great deal of talk about the free education scheme, but education costs increased by 9.81 per cent. Here are two major decisions which the Government had to make— and nobody else could make them for them—and on which they dithered not for months but for years, one in respect of the health services and the other in respect of education.
We have consistently pointed out that one way to finance the health services on an equitable basis—and we do not suggest and do not believe they can be entirely financed in this way— is through a contributory scheme, which would make a substantial contribution to meeting the increase in charges. A decision must be taken to examine critically the efficiency of the large regional health boards which would seem to be providing only a moderate service at a very high cost in respect of those sections of the community for whom these health services are provided.
This decision to establish a prices commission was heralded with a certain amount of publicity. I wish to quote again from the article in The Irish Press. I have quoted from many other articles as well but the suggestion might be made that they were less objective. The heading in the Irish Independent was: “Soaring Prices” and the article stated that in the past three years prices in this country had risen by over 25 per cent, and that since then the up-to-date figures showed that they have gone up by between 28 and 29 per cent. This was published on the 29th November last. The Irish Press in its article quotes the Minister for Industry and Commerce:
Mr. Lalor did say that what was allowed was usually well below what was applied for. If this is as common as he suggested then there must be a great lack of honesty in many of the applications. The public shudders when a trade union puts in a claim for a 20 or 25 per cent rise in wages but at least it can be said that the issue is at once apparent to everyone. In an enlightened age of public opinion the practice of kite-flying as high as possible in order to get somewhere above the norm is a stupid procedure whether applied to wages or the price of goods. It should not be tolerated.
No doubt it will be said that this would destroy the market for free enterprise and the logic that prices will find their true level. Some of these implications may be valid, but on the other hand if a system permits of unjustifiable leapfrogging in either prices or wages it is a bad system and already in disrepute.
At an earlier stage the article said:
By the time price increases are officially announced they have often already been in operation for a long time and the public may not know whether the announcement is an endorsement of our existing situation or the threat of a new increase.
That is undoubtedly true. I do not believe that any description of the price system that has operated here is more apt than that comment, apt because of the way in which is has reflected public opinion of the manner in which prices have operated. That is a situation that has affected not only pensioners but every section of the community. We have got to see what this budget does to stimulate production, to provide the incentives that it was designed to provide. In the past 18 months there has been a substantial increase in company taxation at a time when our competitiveness vis-àvis other countries in the OECD not to mention the EEC countries has worsened. Again, this has been examined carefully in the recent OECD publication which says:
It is difficult to see how equitable rates of expansion of output and employment can be achieved unless the deterioration of Ireland's competitive position is halted.
It also says:
In its Winter 1971Quarterly Bulletin the Central Bank estimated that with a 4 per cent real growth rate in 1972 and a 5 per cent rise in import prices, wage and salary increases of more than 8 per cent would give imports a further price advantage on the domestic market. As the 4 per cent growth rate would imply increased industrial employment (at higher average wage rates) the increase in wage and salary rates would have to be less than 8 per cent.
It concluded:
... as the Central Bank said, "the margin for error is evidently very slight".
We see, therefore, that the decisions taken in this budget are decisions taken after events, decisions to compensate pensioners for the increase in prices and decisions to alleviate the position of income tax payers. In regard to the latter it is, I think, pertinent to reflect on the submission of the Confederation of Irish Industry, a submission which was confirmed here yesterday by the Minister's own comments, that the personal allowances have remained unchanged from 1954-55 to date, apart from the modest increase of £15 in respect of single persons and widows and £30 in respect of married men granted in 1968-69. The submission goes on to point out that the moderate increase in the tax allowances for children has been effectively reduced in its impact by making the allowances granted by the Department of Social Welfare liable to tax. Earned income allowance for income tax purposes was last increased in 1960-61.
Now what has happened here is that we have been shamed into doing something by the widespread comments from affected sections of the community and by the example shown recently by the British Chancellor of the Exchequer in respect of income tax. This, again, is merely compensation. There has been an improvement in the position where death duties are concerned. The amount has been increased from £5,000 to £7,500. When one takes into consideration the change in the value of money, this is not such an alleviation as might be supposed. There will be a reduction in the rate of estate duty on estates between £7,500 and £11,000. Again, the increase here has not kept pace with the fall in the value of money. This is introduced now years after the original change was made and it does not compensate though I recognise, as the Minister pointed out, that this particular change is a costly one.
What is essential here, and this has been reinforced and re-echoed time and time again by interested bodies, is a decision to take and to implement long-term plans in respect of a number of matters. There was, I think, a cynical smile from many people when we heard a fourth programme being mentioned. There is not even a displaced sod, never mind a tombstone, to mark where the first three programmes have been buried. Now we are going to have a fourth programme. What is important is the reform of our taxation system. As the Minister remarked, the present system has been in operation for over 100 years where income tax is concerned and for 60 years where surtax is concerned. There has been no conscious decision to carry into effect, with the exception of this programme budgeting, the recommendations of the Devlin Report. No real effort has been made to reorganise our taxation system. There was one slight change made—a substantial change from the point of view of its impact—by the introduction of PAYE. No decision has been taken to implement the recommendations of the Commission on Taxation. There has been no fundamental re-appraisal of our health and social welfare services. There has been an absolute failure, and this affects every area, to reach decisions in respect of education. It is an extraordinary thing that, no matter what district one visits, no matter what constituency, no matter what town, every single project for a school is either held up or deferred or discussions are taking place because of the inability of the Government and the Department to come to grips with the situation. This is the situation particularly in Dublin city and county, in my own constituency of Dún Laoghaire/Rathdown and in other fringe areas. The Government and the Department have failed to come to grips with the situation for two reasons. The idea has been propounded that the larger the school the more efficient it is economically. There is some validity in part of that argument, but there is no validity in the illusory notion that only schools of 1,500 or 1,600 are economic.