Having dealt with the prices situation, I propose to comment briefly on the question of wage increases. My concern with the current economic situation is sharpened by the fact that it is the wage and salary earners whose living standards suffer first if the situation deteriorates. In the current climate I have no doubt that this fact will have considerable impact on the wage negotiations now proceeding. Rising costs and prices are the greatest threat to our balance of payments and to our general competitiveness and they are the greatest threat to the prospect of restoring full employment and maintaining our living standards.
The bitter and sharp lesson most wage and salary earners have learned in the past decade is that most increases in wages have been cancelled by increased prices. This process is likely to continue irrespective of whether employers and trade unions like it. NIEC reports have shown what happens when rises in general incomes are not kept in line with increases in output. Sometimes the result is considerable unemployment.
Therefore, the choice facing any industrial worker or any public servant in receipt of salary increases is between a relatively high growth rate—much higher than we have at present—and a higher growth rate in our living standards or a static rate of growth in general employment. Unfortunately at the moment we have a combination of a static growth rate, a decline in industrial employment and rising prices. This situation cannot continue indefinitely without serious consequences to our ability to export. It is in this climate that the current wage negotiations are being conducted.
A special delegate conference of the ICTU took place last February to review the current agreement and to decide on a general wages policy for 1972-74. We know that many of the current industrial agreements will expire in mid-June, 1972. I hold the view that it is in the national interest, in the interest of industrial workers—particularly the lower paid workers—that every effort should be made to ensure that a further short-term phased national agreement should be negotiated by the employers, trade unions and State organisations. Unless this happens there may be a free-for-all on the general incomes front this year which would have unfortunate consequences for employment. Without the stability of a wage agreement it would not be possible to ensure that all groups would get a fair share of the national cake. Every effort should be made to have another national agreement.
The Labour Party have always recognised that wage levels and unit labour costs have a major influence on our export competitiveness and on our employment. Therefore, the stabilising effect of a national agreement would be of benefit to the country. As a responsible political party we recognise that the planned development of incomes can occur only under conditions of a national agreement. If we have a comprehensive, and yet flexible, national agreement the redistributive prospects of the general income will be immeasurably enhanced. In the year ahead the Labour Party will support every effort on these lines by the trade unions and employers. In relation to the national agreement, the trade union organisations are adhering to the general terms of that agreement and have acted with great responsibility and restraint despite two factors. One factor is that there has been a 24 per cent increase in the cost of living in the past three years and, secondly, there have been some efforts made by some groups in the trade union movement to sabotage the national agreement. However, it has held firm and this is to be welcomed.
Unfortunately, the Government, and to a considerable extent many trade unionists and employers, have never accepted the need for a general incomes policy. Earlier this morning I advocated the establishment of a national economic council and the concept of industrial economic development councils in various sectors of the economy. However, it would be unrealistic of me to advocate that kind of economic expansion and, at the same time, try to exclude incomes development in overall economic policy. An incomes policy is concerned with the general distribution of money, not only of wages and salaries but of professional earnings. It means also rents, profits, capital gains, the incomes of farmers and of the self-employed. Frequently politicians, principally because it is easy to deal with wages and salaries, tend to devote their redistributive efforts to dealing with that sector. To some extent it is possible to control profits and they can be levelled upwards or downwards. However, items such as capital gains and the incomes of farmers and the self-employed tend to be ignored and do not play their part in contributing to the general taxation. A positive incomes policy would include all these items. It would not be a sterile, negative policy confined exclusively to wage and salary earners.
Incomes policy is concerned primarily with the manner in which the national income is distributed. There are indications in our economy that this distribution is not fair. Recently estimates were published showing the distribution of personal wealth in the Republic and in Northern Ireland for 1966. These were made by Mr. Patrick Lyons, lecturer in economics at Trinity College, Dublin, in the January 1972 issue of the Economic and Social Review. Those of us who know Paddy Lyons would hardly accuse him of being a member of the Fine Gael or Labour Parties. We may, therefore, give appropriate weight to his observations. It is interesting to note that according to his estimate the top 5 per cent of the adult population, those aged 20 and over, in the Republic owned 71 per cent of the total wealth and it is perfectly clear from that that inequality in the distribution of wealth in the Republic is far greater than in the UK. It is ironical to find that Professor Atkinston, professor of economics at the University of Exeter, wrote in the January-March 1971 issue of the Political Quarterly:
It seems likely that Britain has the doubtful distinction of heading the international inequality league.
We can correct Professor Atkinson and assure him that Ireland tops the league in general inequality. I know the criteria and many fundamental assumptions behind the analysis of Patrick Lyons have been questioned.