asked the Taoiseach if he will state why figures for people out of work are normally less than the live register total for the corresponding dates, as stated in the recent Green Paper on the economy.
Ceisteanna—Questions. Oral Answers. - Employment Statistics.
1.
The figures contained in the relevant table of the Green Paper on Economic and Social Development 1976-80 relate to the annual estimate of the total labour force, compiled for mid-April of each year. These estimates which contain, as a constituent, an estimate of the number of persons out of work are derived by annually updating the aggregates obtained from the most recent census of population using various current statistical series.
The current estimates for the number of persons out of work are obtained by applying the trends in the live register data, excluding persons on short-time working—to the total persons out of work as given by the 1971 census. In recent censuses this aggregate has tended to be somewhat lower than the live register total for a comparable date. While the live register total is comprised almost entirely of applicants for unemployment benefit or assistance, in a census the classification of a person as out of work is determined in a completely independent way, mainly by the respondent's own assessment of his or her economic situation as indicated by the replies to the questions on the census questionaire. The census totals for those out of work would not include persons on shorttime working.
I take it that this statement does not refer to the weekly document of unemployment statistics which is issued?
I am trying to say that there are two ways of calculating unemployment. One is that which is most frequently heard in this House, to read off the people on the live register almost all of whom are applicants for unemployment assistance or benefit. The method involved in the Green Paper to which the Deputy drew attention to is a different one and it is arrived at by observing the trends on the live register and applying those trends to the last solid figure based on a census enumeration of people who regarded themselves and described themselves as "out of work". There has been, as the Deputy observes, a slight difference in that the latter system gives a figure which is a bit lower than the weekly returns of the live register.
Is the Parliamentary Secretary saying that the census return record people who are unemployed but state or give information suggesing that they are employed?
It is the other way around, I think. I do not wish to speculate on this but one explanation of the discrepancy, which is not a very large one given the number we are dealing with, is that people who during the census enumeration are visibly employed or are unwilling for some reason like that to say the opposite in fact are obtaining assistance or benefit. That might be a reason which will account for some proportion of them. I offer that simply as a guess.
Would the Parliamentary Secretary not agree now that this is another reason why the census should be held so that people who are genuinely unemployed now would be recorded as such.
That is a separate matter.
The system was not introduced by this Government. This system and the discrepancy which the Deputy has observed were there before we came into office. For example, in 1971 the discrepancy was 5,000 while at the moment it is 8,000. The discrepancy was there based on the same system.
We had not as many people unemployed in 1971.